Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Blacksburg, VA

April 15, 20189 counties in Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 15, 2018, 6:47 PM EDT for 9 counties in Virginia. It was in force for 88 min. 11 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Apr 15, 2018, 6:47 PM EDT (22:47 UTC)
Expired
Apr 15, 2018, 8:15 PM EDT
In force
88 min
Issued by
NWS Blacksburg, VA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Tornado
Possible
Hail
1.0 in
Wind
60.0 mph

Counties Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, Halifax County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 148 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Apr 15, 6:49 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG4 Nw Brookneal, VAA TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS ALONG WHIPPING CREEK ROAD.
Apr 15, 6:49 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG5 Se Gladys, VAA TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS ALONG THE BROOKNEAL HIGHWAY.
Apr 15, 7:00 PM EDTTORNADO4 Se Forest, VA*** 12 INJ *** TORNADO WITH EF2 DAMAGE ALONG A NEARLY CONTINUOUS PATH OF 20.4 MILES, BEGAN 37.326/-79.241, ENDED 37.606/-79.163, FROM NEAR TIMBERLAKE VA, TO 5.5 WNW OF AMHERST VA, PASSING THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF THE CITY OF LYNCHBURG. THERE WAS DAMAGE TO NEAR
Apr 15, 7:01 PM EDTTORNADO3 Ese Forest, VATREE LIMBS DOWN. CARPORT DAMAGED. TORNADO OBSERVED.
Apr 15, 7:01 PM EDTTORNADO3 Se Forest, VASPOTTERS AND VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPT VISUALLY CONFIRMED TORNADO ON TIMBERLAKE ROAD. CARS WERE FLIPPED OVER, SEVERAL TREES WERE DOWNED AND SEVERAL STRUCTURES DAMAGED. TIME ESTIMATED.
Apr 15, 7:05 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG2 Wsw Phenix, VAA TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS ALONG THE PATRICK HENRY HIGHWAY.
Apr 15, 7:05 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG3 E Forest, VATREES DOWN AND MINOR DAMAGE TO HOMES.
Apr 15, 7:07 PM EDTTORNADO3 Se Forest, VASPOTTERS AND VOLUNTEER FIRE DEPT VISUALLY CONFIRMED TORNADO ON TIMBERLAKE ROAD. CARS WERE FLIPPED OVER, SEVERAL TREES WERE DOWNED AND SEVERAL STRUCTURES DAMAGED. TIME ESTIMATED.
Apr 15, 7:09 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG5 Ne Lynchburg City, VANUMEROUS HOUSES DAMAGED ALONG ROUTE 130. RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.
Apr 15, 7:20 PM EDTTORNADO1 Se Elon, VA*** 8 INJ *** AMHERST COUNTY EM VERY CONFIDENT THAT A TORNADO OCCURRED IN THE VICINITY OF ELON ROAD, NOTTOWAY DRIVE, DEERFIELD DRIVE, AND HUNT CLUB ROAD IN THE ELON/MADISON HEIGHTS AREA. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO AT LEAST 20 STRUCTURES, SEVERAL COMPLETELY DESTROY
Apr 15, 7:30 PM EDTTSTM WND DMG6 Ene Bent Creek, VATREES SNAPPED AND UPROOTED FROM GLADSTONE TO WINGINA. SOME POWER LINE DAMAGE. WIND ESTIMATED 65 MPH.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 6 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 2 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Apr 15, 3:02 PM EDTTornado WatchSPC8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 77 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2018-04-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2018-04-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 143 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
881 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
143 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
148 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

552 
WUUS51 KRNK 152247
SVRRNK
VAC009-011-019-029-031-037-083-143-680-160015-
/O.NEW.KRNK.SV.W.0016.180415T2247Z-180416T0015Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
647 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Appomattox County in central Virginia...
  Charlotte County in south central Virginia...
  Campbell County in central Virginia...
  Northeastern Pittsylvania County in south central Virginia...
  Northwestern Halifax County in south central Virginia...
  Eastern Amherst County in central Virginia...
  Southeastern Bedford County in south central Virginia...
  Buckingham County in central Virginia...
  The City of Lynchburg in central Virginia...

* Until 815 PM EDT

* At 647 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Timberlake to Mt Laurel, moving northeast at 70
  mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Lynchburg...
  Buckingham...
  Altavista...
  Amherst...
  and Appomattox.

This includes The following Locations Liberty University and
Lynchburg Airport.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

Prepare immediately for large hail and damaging winds, as well as
deadly cloud to ground lightning. For your safety, move to an
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Stay away
from windows.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for central,
south central and west central Virginia.

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7852 3740 7859 3726 7868
      3719 7868 3708 7844 3692 7848 3695 7909
      3715 7952 3772 7907 3770 7899 3755 7890
      3754 7884 3763 7882 3764 7872 3775 7862
      3776 7851 3780 7849 3775 7844 3769 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 207DEG 63KT 3729 7929 3685 7877 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

PW
5 follow-up statements
557 
WWUS51 KRNK 152302
SVSRNK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
702 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

VAC143-152312-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180416T0015Z/
Pittsylvania VA-
702 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
NORTHEASTERN PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for central,
south central and west central Virginia.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7852 3740 7859 3726 7868
      3719 7868 3708 7844 3692 7849 3694 7893
      3729 7941 3772 7907 3770 7899 3755 7890
      3754 7884 3763 7882 3764 7872 3775 7862
      3776 7851 3780 7849 3775 7844 3769 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 217DEG 46KT 3742 7905 3692 7879 

$$

VAC009-011-019-029-031-037-083-680-160015-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180416T0015Z/
Appomattox VA-Charlotte VA-Campbell VA-Halifax VA-Amherst VA-
Bedford VA-Buckingham VA-City of Lynchburg VA-
702 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT
FOR
APPOMATTOX...CHARLOTTE...CAMPBELL...NORTH CENTRAL HALIFAX...EASTERN
AMHERST...EAST CENTRAL BEDFORD...AND BUCKINGHAM COUNTIES AND THE CITY
OF LYNCHBURG...

At 702 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Stonewall to near Mt Laurel, moving northeast at
55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Lynchburg...
Buckingham...
Amherst...
Appomattox...
and Brookneal.

This includes The following Locations Liberty University and
Lynchburg Airport.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

Prepare immediately for LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. For your
safety, move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Stay away from windows.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for central,
south central and west central Virginia.

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7852 3740 7859 3726 7868
      3719 7868 3708 7844 3692 7849 3694 7893
      3729 7941 3772 7907 3770 7899 3755 7890
      3754 7884 3763 7882 3764 7872 3775 7862
      3776 7851 3780 7849 3775 7844 3769 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 217DEG 46KT 3742 7905 3692 7879 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

PW
528 
WWUS51 KRNK 152322
SVSRNK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
722 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

VAC019-083-152332-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180416T0015Z/
Halifax VA-Bedford VA-
722 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
NORTH CENTRAL HALIFAX AND EAST CENTRAL BEDFORD COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for central,
south central and west central Virginia.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7852 3740 7859 3726 7868
      3719 7868 3708 7844 3707 7845 3719 7882
      3744 7927 3747 7918 3751 7924 3772 7907
      3770 7899 3754 7884 3763 7882 3764 7872
      3775 7862 3776 7851 3780 7849 3769 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 207DEG 43KT 3756 7891 3719 7866 

$$

VAC009-011-029-031-037-680-160015-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180416T0015Z/
Appomattox VA-Charlotte VA-Campbell VA-Amherst VA-Buckingham VA-
City of Lynchburg VA-
722 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT
FOR
APPOMATTOX...NORTHEASTERN CHARLOTTE...NORTHEASTERN CAMPBELL...EASTERN
AMHERST...AND BUCKINGHAM COUNTIES AND THE CENTRAL CITY OF
LYNCHBURG...

At 722 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Riverville to Madisonville, moving northeast at
50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Lynchburg...
Buckingham...
Amherst...
Appomattox...
and Dillwyn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

Prepare immediately for LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. For your
safety, move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Stay away from windows.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for central,
south central and west central Virginia.

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7852 3740 7859 3726 7868
      3719 7868 3708 7844 3707 7845 3719 7882
      3744 7927 3747 7918 3751 7924 3772 7907
      3770 7899 3754 7884 3763 7882 3764 7872
      3775 7862 3776 7851 3780 7849 3769 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2322Z 207DEG 43KT 3756 7891 3719 7866 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

PW
552 
WWUS51 KRNK 152350
SVSRNK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
750 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

VAC009-011-031-037-680-160000-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180416T0015Z/
Appomattox VA-Charlotte VA-Campbell VA-Amherst VA-
City of Lynchburg VA-
750 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
APPOMATTOX...NORTHEASTERN CHARLOTTE...NORTHEASTERN CAMPBELL...AND
EASTERN AMHERST COUNTIES AND THE CENTRAL CITY OF LYNCHBURG IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for central and
south central Virginia.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7852 3740 7859 3763 7881
      3764 7872 3775 7862 3776 7851 3780 7849
      3769 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 248DEG 40KT 3777 7859 3740 7834 

$$

VAC029-160015-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180416T0015Z/
Buckingham VA-
750 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT
FOR
BUCKINGHAM COUNTY...

At 750 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles east of Schuyler to near Guinea Mills, moving
east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Buckingham...
Dillwyn...
New Canton...
Toga...
and Centenary.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

Prepare immediately for LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. For your
safety, move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Stay away from windows.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM EDT for central and
south central Virginia.

LAT...LON 3734 7846 3733 7852 3740 7859 3763 7881
      3764 7872 3775 7862 3776 7851 3780 7849
      3769 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 248DEG 40KT 3777 7859 3740 7834 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

PW
643 
WWUS51 KRNK 160000
SVSRNK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
800 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

VAC029-160015-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180416T0015Z/
Buckingham VA-
800 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM EDT
FOR
EASTERN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY...

At 800 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 7 miles southwest of Lake Monticello to near Guinea
Mills, moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Dillwyn...
New Canton...
Centenary...
Gold Hill...
and Shores.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Remain alert for a possible tornado! Tornadoes can develop quickly
from severe thunderstorms. If you spot a tornado go at once into the
basement or small central room in a sturdy structure.

Prepare immediately for LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. For your
safety, move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Stay away from windows.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3735 7846 3752 7853 3776 7854 3776 7851
      3780 7849 3769 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 209DEG 55KT 3788 7845 3748 7835 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

PW
972 
WWUS51 KRNK 160006
SVSRNK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
806 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

VAC029-160016-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180416T0015Z/
Buckingham VA-
806 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 
EASTERN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM EDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

When it is safe to do so, please send your reports of hail of any
size, as well as reports of any wind damage, including downed trees
or large limbs, to the National Weather Service by calling toll free
at 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Reports and pictures can also be
shared on the National Weather Service Blacksburg Facebook page and
on Twitter.

LAT...LON 3735 7846 3752 7853 3776 7854 3776 7851
      3780 7849 3769 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 207DEG 63KT 3796 7840 3756 7830 

$$

PW

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 15, 6:00 PM EDT, 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 15, 6:00 PM EDT, 47 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
600 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will continue to progress across the region
this evening, and offshore by early Monday. A line of showers
and thunderstorms will precede the boundary this afternoon into
tonight before drier air arrives overnight. Storms may be strong
to locally severe. Much colder air on strong northwest winds
including mountain snow or rain showers follows the front for
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 558 PM EDT Sunday...

Tornado Watch 53 dropped for Craig/Roanoke/Patrick and Stokes.
Threat continues to the east, especially along/east of a
Lexingto to Smith Mountain Lake to Reidsville line.

Previous discussion from an 5pm...

Line of strong/severe storms along a line from Covington, VA to
Roanoke to Stuart to Triad NC. Have dropped the Tornado Watch
west of this line, as airmass stabilized with moderate showers
expected.

Severe/Tornado threat continues to the east, especially in the
piedmont where better instability coincides with higher shear.

Previous discussion from mid afternoon...

Issued Tornado Watch 53 which includes the Piedmont of VA/NC, Blue
Ridge foothills, New River and Roanoke Valleys until 03z/11pm. I've
removed Ashe and Watauga Counties from Tornado Watch 52, which
remains in effect until 7 PM. Flash Flood Watch were expanded with
the afternoon package northward, per collaboration with NWS
Sterling, into Bath, Rockbridge, Botetourt and Alleghany Counties in
VA.

Ongoing QLCS with several kinks embedded in the line extended from
Mercer County WV southward into eastern SC; we are also carefully
monitoring cluster of multicells moving north from the Triad into a
somewhat more unstable environment in the VA Piedmont/Southside. Air
mass remains highly sheared owing to strong low and mid-level wind
fields. No change to prior thinking that the main threats will be
damaging winds and perhaps short-lived/brief tornadoes, with hail
being a secondary concern associated with supercell structures.
Reported rain rates have been torrential at times and it will take
training to produce flash flooding. Urban areas as well as in the
western mountains where 1-hrly flash flood guidance is between 1.5-2
inches would be areas most vulnerable to flash flooding. Squall line
will pivot northeast until late this evening. Threat of severe and
localized hydro will continue through that period before FROPA
results in more rapid SW->NE clearing. Exception will be in the
mountains of southeast West Virginia where upslope rain will begin
to transition/mix with wet snow overnight as temperatures begin to
cool aloft. Northwest winds will be on the increase during the
evening/overnight and become gusty but likely sub-Advisory, at
least until early Monday morning.

Cold advection, good mixing and strong pressure rises will continued
to lead to an increase in northwest wind gusts. Could envision a
need for a Wind Advisory for southern Blue Ridge for Monday from
Roanoke to Boone. Given active weather in the first 12 hrs and that
it is a late second period/early third period headline, will defer
to later guidance before considering this attm. Precip will continue
to fall in upslope areas as mainly a rain/snow mix with little
accumulation; somewhat better chance for light accumulations of snow
become more likely in western Greenbrier through Tazewell and the
mountains of NW NC after this period. Highs 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 349 PM EDT Sunday...

Ongoing mountain -SHSN will continue to affect our western mountains
counties Monday night into Tuesday, in the favored upslope areas in
western Greenbrier County down into the mountains of northwest NC.
Factoring in forecast snow amounts from Monday leads to forecast
snow accumulations from a coating to up to 2 inches with the
greatest in the western hillsides in western Greenbrier County.
Present accumulations are below Advisory thresholds and are also
over a long stretch of time, essentially a long-duration light snow
event where any modest accumulation confined to the evening. Will
also continue to have gusty northwest winds, but general trend will
be for slow abatement into Tuesday. Low temperatures in the upper
20s to mid 30s Monday night, with highs into the 40s. Quieter
weather anticipated for Tuesday night into Wednesday with beginning
of modest warming trend into Wednesday. Lows upper 30s to mid 40s
Tuesday night, while temperatures rebound in the 60s to lower 70s
Wednesday

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 510 AM EDT Sunday...

With active weather in the near-term period, didn't spend as much
time with this forecast period with the forecast basis being from
the overnight 00z and 06z model suite, along with early 12z
guidance.

Warming trend to temperatures continues early in the period (thru
Thursday) before a cold front associated with a low pressure
area/clipper system passes to our north. Chances for showers appear
limited in this period. Brief cool down Friday into first part of
Saturday with below-normal temps indicated. Temperatures than begin
to warm along with moisture values as we await a progged strong
southern stream disturbance moving out of the mid-Mississippi Valley
to impact the region Sunday into Monday. This may bring another shot
of decent rainfall to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Sunday...

Poor flying conditions expected through the 18z TAF period,
especially from 18 to 03z due to the potential for
thunderstorms. Storms will be capable of damaging convective
outflow and low-level turbulence/microbursts. Indicated +SHRA
through the aforementioned period when showers and/or
thunderstorms are most likely. See specific TAFs for timing. Best
chance for severe thunderstorms is along and east of the Blue
Ridge, especially for Danville and potentially into Roanoke and
Lynchburg. Storms expected to take shape in a linear fashion and
bring potentially heavy rainfall. Indicated MVFR ceilings with
MVFR-IFR visibility. Winds will be east-southeast to southeast
10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts.

Powerful cold front will move east between 03-06z with skies
beginning to clear in the Piedmont to VFR but remain MVFR with
lingering upslope showers. Expect a gusty wind shift to west
with FROPA and an eventual continued veer to northwest. Off and
on showers will continue until 18z in the far west, with
northwest wind gusts increasing with mixing very late in the TAF
period.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Gusty northwest winds will continue Monday night through Tuesday
along with mountain sub-VFR in low cigs espcly KBLF/KLWB.

Finally looking at a return to overall VFR on Wednesday with a
gusty southwest wind likely ahead of yet another approaching
cold front.

Next front arrives Wed night-Thu with chance of showers, with
gusty winds and sub-VFR cigs again Thursday in the mountains.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 349 PM EDT Sunday...

Have added Flash Flood Watch further north, which now includes
all counties west of Amherst, Bedford, Pittsylvania and Caswell
Counties line.

Main concern with possible training of multiple convective bands
over the mountains this afternoon and early evening where
guidance has between 1 to as much as 4 inches of rain in a 6-8
hour window. Rainfall rates could also be better than a couple
inches per hour if convection does indeed deepen enough
especially to the south. This similar scenario has lead to flash
flooding with past events. Some concern for convection to
perhaps limit moisture transport early on before the system
negatively tilts allowing for deepening south/southeast flow to
win out. However this only supported by limited number of
solutions with the latest GFS/ECMWF more in support of the
heaviest rain near the watch area. This could lead to some river
flooding as well into early next week so something to watch
pending locations of heavy rainfall and overall totals at this
point.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ007-
     009>020-022>024-032-033-043.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ001>005-
     018>020.
WV...Flash Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for WVZ042>044-
     507-508.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AL
NEAR TERM...AL/WP
SHORT TERM...AL
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...AL/JH
HYDROLOGY...AL/JH
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 15, 5:05 PM EDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
505 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

NCZ006-VAZ034-035-044>047-058-059-162115-
Caswell-Bedford-Amherst-Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-
Halifax-Charlotte-
505 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...TORNADO WATCH 53 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
central Virginia and south central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NCZ001>003-018>020-VAZ009>017-019-020-WVZ044-162115-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Smyth-Bland-Giles-
Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Alleghany VA-Bath-
Monroe-
505 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia
and southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Northwest winds could gust as high as 45 to 50 mph Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

VAZ007-WVZ042-043-507-508-162115-
Tazewell-Mercer-Summers-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
505 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia and
southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ004-005-VAZ018-022>024-032-033-043-162115-
Stokes-Rockingham-Craig-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Patrick-
Franklin-Henry-
505 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 53 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

West to northwest winds may gust as high as 45 mph, especially close
to the Blue Ridge.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 15, 6:24 PM EDT, 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
624 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WNW STEWARTSVILLE     37.28N 79.83W
04/15/2018                   BEDFORD            VA   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN.

&&

WHP
Local storm report, Apr 15, 6:27 PM EDT, 20 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
627 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 PM     TSTM WND DMG     REIDSVILLE              36.35N 79.67W
04/15/2018                   ROCKINGHAM         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            REPORT OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO A RESIDENCE ON 224 LE
            VIVA DRIVE. RELAYED BY NWS GREER AND NWS RALEIGH. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

LOCONTO
Local storm report, Apr 15, 6:28 PM EDT, 19 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
628 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     HAIL             1 SSW WOOLWINE          36.77N 80.29W
04/15/2018  E1.00 INCH       PATRICK            VA   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL NEAR WOOLWINE.

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GERMANTON               36.27N 80.23W
04/15/2018                   STOKES             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN BY THUNDERSTORM WINDS
            AROUND THE COMMUNITY OF GERMANTON.

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WALNUT COVE             36.29N 80.14W
04/15/2018                   STOKES             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWERLINES WERE BLOWN DOWN AROUND THE
            COMMUNITY OF WALNUT COVE.

&&

16
Local storm report, Apr 15, 6:31 PM EDT, 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
631 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE BLAIRS             36.70N 79.37W
04/15/2018                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN. POSSIBLE TORNADO

&&

AMS
Local storm report, Apr 15, 6:33 PM EDT, 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
633 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 WNW DANVILLE CITY     36.59N 79.46W
04/15/2018                   CITY OF DANVILLE   VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THUNDERSTORM WINDS BLEW DOWN THE SIGN OF A BUSINESS AND
            DAMAGED THE ROOF OF A HOME ALONG HIGHWAY 58. SEVERAL
            TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN AS WELL.

&&

16
Local storm report, Apr 15, 6:45 PM EDT, 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
645 PM EDT SUN APR 15 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE CHATHAM           36.82N 79.39W
04/15/2018                   PITTSYLVANIA       VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWNED ON HALIFAX ROAD.

&&

LOCONTO

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 15, 3:57 AM EDTFlash Flood WatchRNKAlleghany, Bath, Bland, Botetourt, Carroll, Craig and 21 more20 hr
Apr 15, 1:07 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKGrayson, Smyth38 min
Apr 15, 1:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKGrayson69 min
Apr 15, 1:45 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKTazewell30 min
Apr 15, 2:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKCarroll, Patrick63 min
Apr 15, 2:34 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKBland, Wythe56 min
Apr 15, 2:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBland, Carroll, Grayson, Pulaski, Wythe, City of Galax and 1 more64 min
Apr 15, 2:48 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRNKCarroll, Grayson, City of Galax3 hr
Apr 15, 3:33 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKCarroll, Floyd, Franklin, Patrick, Pulaski57 min
Apr 15, 3:43 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRNKGiles, Montgomery, City of Radford62 min
Apr 15, 3:57 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBotetourt, Craig, Floyd, Franklin, Giles, Montgomery and 5 more63 min
Apr 15, 4:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKFloyd, Henry, Patrick, City of Martinsville67 min
Apr 15, 4:17 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRNKCarroll3 hr
Apr 15, 4:37 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryRNKFloyd, Montgomery, Pulaski, City of Radford3 hr
Apr 15, 5:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKBedford, Botetourt, Floyd, Franklin, Henry, Patrick and 4 more63 min
Apr 15, 5:45 PM EDTTornado WarningRNKPittsylvania, City of Danville45 min
Apr 15, 6:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKCharlotte, Halifax, City of Danville56 min
Apr 15, 6:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRNKAmherst, Bedford, Botetourt, Rockbridge, City of Buena Vista, City of Lexington78 min
Apr 15, 6:23 PM EDTTornado WarningRNKBedford, Campbell, Pittsylvania26 min
Apr 15, 7:07 PM EDTTornado WarningRNKAmherst, Bedford, Campbell, City of Lynchburg38 min
Apr 15, 7:34 PM EDTTornado WarningRNKBuckingham26 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2018Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.