Alert archive / Louisiana / Tornado Watches in 2018

Tornado Watch 448

December 27, 201833 parishes in Louisiana; 25 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Dec 27, 2018, 9:29 AM CST for 33 parishes in Louisiana; 25 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 27, 2018, 9:29 AM CST (15:29 UTC)
Expired
Dec 27, 2018, 6:00 PM CST
In force
9 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
1 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 58 counties

Ascension Parish, LA, Assumption Parish, LA, Avoyelles Parish, LA, Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Iberia Parish, LA, Iberville Parish, LA, Jefferson Parish, LA, Lafayette Parish, LA, Lafourche Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Orleans Parish, LA, Plaquemines Parish, LA, Pointe Coupee Parish, LA, Saint Bernard Parish, LA, Saint Charles Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint James Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Landry Parish, LA, Saint Martin Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, St. Mary Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Terrebonne Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, West Baton Rouge Parish, LA, West Feliciana Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Amite County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Pike County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Warren County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
10%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
50%

Warnings issued inside it

27 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 27, 9:43 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANMadison47 min
Dec 27, 9:57 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningLCHAvoyelles, Rapides3 hr
Dec 27, 10:05 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCatahoula, Concordia40 min
Dec 27, 10:14 AM CSTTornado WarningLCHAcadia, Lafayette, Vermilion31 min
Dec 27, 10:17 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANConcordia, Tensas3 hr
Dec 27, 10:20 AM CSTTornado WarningJANHinds, Madison, Yazoo55 min
Dec 27, 10:31 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANHinds, Madison, Rankin44 min
Dec 27, 10:40 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAdams, Franklin, Jefferson65 min
Dec 27, 10:44 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANHolmes, Humphreys, Yazoo46 min
Dec 27, 10:47 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXPointe Coupee, West Feliciana43 min
Dec 27, 11:03 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningLCHSaint Landry3 hr
Dec 27, 11:09 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAttala, Holmes, Leake, Madison, Yazoo51 min
Dec 27, 11:14 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANLeake, Madison, Rankin, Scott46 min
Dec 27, 11:22 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningLCHLafayette, Vermilion3 hr
Dec 27, 11:33 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANHinds, Madison, Rankin3 hr
Dec 27, 11:36 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXIberville, Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana24 min
Dec 27, 11:37 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANCopiah, Franklin, Jefferson, Lawrence, Lincoln, Simpson3 hr
Dec 27, 11:50 AM CSTTornado WarningLIXPointe Coupee, West Feliciana8 min
Dec 27, 11:53 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAttala, Leake37 min
Dec 27, 12:50 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLCHIberia, Saint Martin3 hr
Dec 27, 12:53 PM CSTTornado WarningLIXEast Feliciana, Saint Helena, Tangipahoa37 min
Dec 27, 1:53 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANCovington, Jefferson Davis, Lamar, Lawrence, Lincoln, Marion and 3 more3 hr
Dec 27, 2:46 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLIXEast Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston, Saint Helena, West Baton Rouge5 hr
Dec 27, 2:53 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANForrest, Jones, Lamar3 hr
Dec 27, 3:48 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningLIXLivingston, Saint Helena, Saint Tammany, Tangipahoa, Washington10 hr
Dec 27, 4:56 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANCovington, Jefferson Davis, Lamar, Marion64 min
Dec 27, 5:44 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANCovington, Forrest, Jefferson Davis, Jones, Lamar, Marion4 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 3.5 hours before the alert went out and 139 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2018-12-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2018-12-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 466 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
591 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
466 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
893 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

160 
WWUS20 KWNS 271526
SEL8  
SPC WW 271526
LAZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-280000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 448
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
930 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Eastern and southern Louisiana
  Southern Mississippi
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 930 AM until
  600 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...A squall line will continue steadily east-northeastward
today across eastern/southern Louisiana into parts of
southern/central Mississippi. Although instability is not robust,
very strong deep-layer/low-level shear will be supportive of
embedded bowing segments and embedded mesovortices capable of wind
damage and some tornado risk.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles north of Lafayette LA to 60
miles east northeast of Mc Comb MS. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 447...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23035.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 26, 11:40 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBossier, Caddo, De Soto2 hr
Dec 27, 12:02 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBienville, Bossier, Caddo, Claiborne, De Soto, Red River and 1 more5 hr
Dec 27, 1:39 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBienville, Bossier, Caddo, Claiborne, De Soto, Lincoln and 2 more2 hr
Dec 27, 3:09 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Jefferson Davis, Vernon2 hr
Dec 27, 3:43 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAcadia, Allen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Caldwell, Cameron and 10 more10 hr
Dec 27, 7:12 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron and 11 more2 hr
Dec 27, 9:00 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAvoyelles, Catahoula, Concordia, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville and 6 more60 min
Dec 27, 1:50 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, Assumption, Catahoula, Concordia, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana and 19 more85 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2018Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.