Alert archive / Louisiana / Tornado Watches in 2018
Tornado Watch 448
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Dec 27, 2018, 9:29 AM CST for 33 parishes in Louisiana; 25 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 9 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 27, 2018, 9:29 AM CST (15:29 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 27, 2018, 6:00 PM CST
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 58 counties
Ascension Parish, LA, Assumption Parish, LA, Avoyelles Parish, LA, Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Iberia Parish, LA, Iberville Parish, LA, Jefferson Parish, LA, Lafayette Parish, LA, Lafourche Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Orleans Parish, LA, Plaquemines Parish, LA, Pointe Coupee Parish, LA, Saint Bernard Parish, LA, Saint Charles Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint James Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Landry Parish, LA, Saint Martin Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, St. Mary Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Terrebonne Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, West Baton Rouge Parish, LA, West Feliciana Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Amite County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Pike County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Warren County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS, Yazoo County, MS
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 30%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 10%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 30%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 5%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 50%
Warnings issued inside it
27 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 9:43 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Madison | 47 min |
| Dec 27, 9:57 AM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LCH | Avoyelles, Rapides | 3 hr |
| Dec 27, 10:05 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Catahoula, Concordia | 40 min |
| Dec 27, 10:14 AM CST | Tornado Warning | LCH | Acadia, Lafayette, Vermilion | 31 min |
| Dec 27, 10:17 AM CST | Flash Flood Warning | JAN | Concordia, Tensas | 3 hr |
| Dec 27, 10:20 AM CST | Tornado Warning | JAN | Hinds, Madison, Yazoo | 55 min |
| Dec 27, 10:31 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Hinds, Madison, Rankin | 44 min |
| Dec 27, 10:40 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Adams, Franklin, Jefferson | 65 min |
| Dec 27, 10:44 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Holmes, Humphreys, Yazoo | 46 min |
| Dec 27, 10:47 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LIX | Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana | 43 min |
| Dec 27, 11:03 AM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LCH | Saint Landry | 3 hr |
| Dec 27, 11:09 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Attala, Holmes, Leake, Madison, Yazoo | 51 min |
| Dec 27, 11:14 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Leake, Madison, Rankin, Scott | 46 min |
| Dec 27, 11:22 AM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LCH | Lafayette, Vermilion | 3 hr |
| Dec 27, 11:33 AM CST | Flash Flood Warning | JAN | Hinds, Madison, Rankin | 3 hr |
| Dec 27, 11:36 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LIX | Iberville, Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana | 24 min |
| Dec 27, 11:37 AM CST | Flash Flood Warning | JAN | Copiah, Franklin, Jefferson, Lawrence, Lincoln, Simpson | 3 hr |
| Dec 27, 11:50 AM CST | Tornado Warning | LIX | Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana | 8 min |
| Dec 27, 11:53 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | JAN | Attala, Leake | 37 min |
| Dec 27, 12:50 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LCH | Iberia, Saint Martin | 3 hr |
| Dec 27, 12:53 PM CST | Tornado Warning | LIX | East Feliciana, Saint Helena, Tangipahoa | 37 min |
| Dec 27, 1:53 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | JAN | Covington, Jefferson Davis, Lamar, Lawrence, Lincoln, Marion and 3 more | 3 hr |
| Dec 27, 2:46 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LIX | East Baton Rouge, Iberville, Livingston, Saint Helena, West Baton Rouge | 5 hr |
| Dec 27, 2:53 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | JAN | Forrest, Jones, Lamar | 3 hr |
| Dec 27, 3:48 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | LIX | Livingston, Saint Helena, Saint Tammany, Tangipahoa, Washington | 10 hr |
| Dec 27, 4:56 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | JAN | Covington, Jefferson Davis, Lamar, Marion | 64 min |
| Dec 27, 5:44 PM CST | Flash Flood Warning | JAN | Covington, Forrest, Jefferson Davis, Jones, Lamar, Marion | 4 hr |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 3.5 hours before the alert went out and 139 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 591 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 466 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 893 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
160 WWUS20 KWNS 271526 SEL8 SPC WW 271526 LAZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-280000- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 448 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 930 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern and southern Louisiana Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 930 AM until 600 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A squall line will continue steadily east-northeastward today across eastern/southern Louisiana into parts of southern/central Mississippi. Although instability is not robust, very strong deep-layer/low-level shear will be supportive of embedded bowing segments and embedded mesovortices capable of wind damage and some tornado risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north of Lafayette LA to 60 miles east northeast of Mc Comb MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 447... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Guyer
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 26, 11:40 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bossier, Caddo, De Soto | 2 hr |
| Dec 27, 12:02 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bienville, Bossier, Caddo, Claiborne, De Soto, Red River and 1 more | 5 hr |
| Dec 27, 1:39 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bienville, Bossier, Caddo, Claiborne, De Soto, Lincoln and 2 more | 2 hr |
| Dec 27, 3:09 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Jefferson Davis, Vernon | 2 hr |
| Dec 27, 3:43 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Acadia, Allen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Caldwell, Cameron and 10 more | 10 hr |
| Dec 27, 7:12 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Acadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron and 11 more | 2 hr |
| Dec 27, 9:00 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Avoyelles, Catahoula, Concordia, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville and 6 more | 60 min |
| Dec 27, 1:50 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Ascension, Assumption, Catahoula, Concordia, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana and 19 more | 85 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2018Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.