Alert archive / Mississippi / Flash Flood Warnings in 2018

Flash Flood Warning 107, NWS Jackson, MS

December 27, 2018Forrest County, Jones County, Lamar County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this flash flood warning at Dec 27, 2018, 2:53 PM CST for Forrest County, Jones County, Lamar County, Mississippi. It was in force for 3 hr. 5 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Dec 27, 2018, 2:53 PM CST (20:53 UTC)
Expired: Dec 27, 2018, 5:45 PM CST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Jackson, MS
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: None

Counties Forrest County, MS, Jones County, MS, Lamar County, MS

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Dec 27, 3:31 PM CST	FLASH FLOOD	1 Ne Hattiesburg, MS	MULTIPLE STREETS INSIDE THE HATTIESBURG CITY LIMITS ARE FLOODED.
Dec 27, 4:29 PM CST	FLASH FLOOD	1 Ene Laurel, MS	CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD REPORT FROM 1 ENE LAUREL. SEVERAL ROADS WERE FLOODED IN THE CITY OF LAUREL AND MULTIPLE VEHICLE CRASHES ON I-59 IN LAUREL. TWO HOMES HAD TREES FALL ON THEM, WHICH RESULTED IN HEAVY DAMAGE AND ARE UNINHABITABLE. THESE HOMES WERE ON
Dec 27, 4:29 PM CST	FLASH FLOOD	1 Ene Laurel, MS	SEVERAL ROADS WERE FLOODED IN THE CITY OF LAUREL AND MULTIPLE VEHICLE CRASHES ON I-59 IN LAUREL. TWO HOMES HAD TREES FALL ON THEM, WHICH RESULTED IN HEAVY DAMAGE AND ARE UNINHABITABLE. THESE HOMES WERE ON SPRINGHILL ROAD AND OLD HIGHWAY 15 SOUTH.
Dec 27, 5:20 PM CST	FLASH FLOOD	2 N Hattiesburg, MS	PROVIDENCE ST CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. 5 CARS STALLED IN FLOOD WATERS.
Dec 27, 5:55 PM CST	FLASH FLOOD	West Hattiesburg, MS	MULTIPLE ROADS FLOODED IN LAMAR COUNTY.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 4 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 38 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 53 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -292 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 564 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 651 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 836 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

379 
WGUS54 KJAN 272053
FFWJAN
MSC035-067-073-272345-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FF.W.0107.181227T2053Z-181227T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
253 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Forrest County in southeastern Mississippi...
  Lamar County in southeastern Mississippi...
  Jones County in southeastern Mississippi...

* Until 545 PM CST.

* At 251 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is expected to
  begin shortly.

Additional rainfall amounts of two to three inches are possible in 
the warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3092 8934 3101 8935 3101 8942 3098 8943
      3098 8947 3101 8950 3100 8964 3143 8946
      3143 8940 3180 8940 3182 8894 3143 8894
      3143 8914 3091 8914

$$

EC

2 follow-up statements

393 
WGUS74 KJAN 272206
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
406 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

MSC035-067-073-272345-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0107.000000T0000Z-181227T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Forrest MS-Lamar MS-Jones MS-
406 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CST FOR
FORREST...LAMAR AND JONES COUNTIES...

At 404 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area and flash flooding will continue. 

Additional rainfall amounts of one to two inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3092 8934 3101 8935 3101 8942 3098 8943
      3098 8947 3101 8950 3100 8964 3143 8946
      3143 8940 3180 8940 3182 8894 3143 8894
      3143 8914 3091 8914

$$

EC

610 
WGUS74 KJAN 272243
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
443 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

MSC035-067-073-272345-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0107.000000T0000Z-181227T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Forrest MS-Lamar MS-Jones MS-
443 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CST FOR
FORREST...LAMAR AND JONES COUNTIES...

At 440 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area.  Considerable flash flooding is 
occurring in the warning area and will continue.

Additional rainfall amounts of one to two inches are possible in the 
warned area late this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3092 8934 3101 8935 3101 8942 3098 8943
      3098 8947 3101 8950 3100 8964 3143 8946
      3143 8940 3180 8940 3182 8894 3143 8894
      3143 8914 3091 8914

$$

EC

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Dec 27, 12:05 PM CST, 2 hours 48 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 27, 12:05 PM CST, 2 hours 48 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1205 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
The line of the storms were moving through the area, so trying to
capture the gradient winds and thunderstorms winds/heavy rain.
Rain should move into HBG/GTR/MEI within the next hour-hour and a
half. Heavy rain will take visibilities down to to IFR-LIFR
conditions for short periods...then MVFR conditions will prevail
across the area through about 6z. Waves of rain will continue for
most sites except GLH/GWO not sure how intense at this time. Taper
off the rain around midnight in the the east, may look at updating
before the next TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: Starting out early this morning, a low
pressure system lifting from the TX Panhandle into the Midwest
will keep a tight pressure gradient and mid-level height gradient
across our forecast area. This pattern will see continued strong
warm, moist advection through the afternoon and evening until the
associated cold front pushes into our region. Gusty winds
overnight have mostly been in the 20 to 25 mph range, however a
gust or two as high as 40 mph have been measured tonight. A Wind
Advisory remains in place through 6 PM this evening for areas
mostly likely to see gusts over 40 mph during the day, however
expect most of the highest gradient wind gust potential to be
focused this morning through early in the afternoon before the
focus turns to possibly severe thunderstorms.

Surface-based instability will be minimal to start the day, since
low clouds will limit daytime heating. But with ongoing warm
advection, a surge of temps and dewpoints around 65 degrees will
spread north from the Gulf Coast toward the Interstate 20 corridor
through the day. In this more unstable airmass, strongly sheared
thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
possibly a few brief tornadoes. Poor low-level lapse rates will
be a limiting factor for tornadoes, but marginal instability and
strong shear warrant the Slight Risk. North of the Interstate 20
corridor, isolated stronger to marginally severe thunderstorms
will still be possible; however the primary threat will be
damaging wind gusts especially if higher winds off the surface can
be mixed down by strong showers and storms.

Lastly, it must be noted that anomalously high atmospheric
moisture will be advected northward ahead of the front, increasing
the possibility for high rainfall rates and flash flooding.
Forecast PWAT values in excess of 1.5 inches are near the
climatological max for this time of year, and the combination of
instability and lift will result in efficient rainfall producing
showers and storms. The flash flooding threat will be greatest -
an Elevated Risk - for areas south and east of the Natchez Trace,
or from roughly Natchez northeast through the Golden Triangle and
through the Pine Belt. These areas have the greatest chance of
seeing more than one round of heavy rain through tomorrow morning.
There is a Flash Flood Watch in effect from Noon today through 6
AM Friday for these areas as well. Elsewhere, average rainfall
totals will be less, and the threat for Flash Flooding will be
Limited. /NF/

Friday through Wednesday: Mostly wet with warmer than normal
temperatures will be the rule. Friday morning as the first low
pressure system pulls away to the northeast, a second closed low
will be dropping over the Four Corners region. As a result, our
flow aloft will remain southwesterly and help stall the cold front
associated with the departing low pressure system. Model
consensus still suggests this cold front will stall just southeast
of our CWA Friday afternoon. The rain will taper off during the
afternoon and dry weather is expected Friday evening but, light
rain is expected back across our southern most zones before
sunrise Saturday. Models are in better agreement this run with the
evolution of this closed low and a disturbance rounding its base
that will help the precipitation spread north over our CWA
Saturday as it approaches.

Rain is expected back over our whole CWA again by Saturday
afternoon. Rain chances will continue over most of our CWA til New
Years Day when the northwest may see a brief end to the rain
before rain chances expand back across our whole CWA Wednesday.
Essentially, this second low pressure system will take until
Sunday night to lift out to the northeast and drop a trailing cold
front into our CWA Monday. The rain will end in the wake of the
cold front but a broad upper level trough dropping over the
Rockies Monday will maintain our southwest flow aloft and help
stall the cold front across our southeast. This will result in
rain chances continuing across our southeast New Years Day. The
upper level trough axis looks to shift east across our CWA
Wednesday bringing an end to the wet weather pattern and cooler
temperatures Thursday. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  55  65  43 /  97  83  14   9
Meridian      67  61  68  46 /  91 100  47  11
Vicksburg     67  52  62  43 /  97  46  12   8
Hattiesburg   69  63  67  50 /  92 100  58  24
Natchez       70  52  63  44 /  93  53  13  15
Greenville    63  49  59  37 /  95  35   9   7
Greenwood     66  52  60  39 /  94  63  12   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-
     072>074.

     Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MSZ030-031-033-038-
     039-044>046-049>052-054>058-061>066-072>074.

LA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 27, 9:05 AM CST, 5 hours 48 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
905 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>029-034>037-040>043-
047-281515-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-
Webster-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Issaquena-Sharkey-
Yazoo-Madison MS-Warren-
905 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northwestern portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northwest Mississippi,
and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Through 6 PM

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today. Damaging wind
gusts will be the primary hazard, but a tornado cannot be ruled
out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be possible
through this afternoon. A few downed trees and power lines are
possible, especially where the soil is saturated following recent
rainfall. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile
vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ032-281515-
Choctaw-
905 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for Choctaw County,
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Through 10 PM.

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today. Damaging wind
gusts will be the primary hazard, but a tornado cannot be ruled
out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be possible
through this afternoon. A few downed trees and power lines are
possible, especially where the soil is saturated following recent
rainfall. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile
vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ031-039-045-046-050>052-058-281515-
Lowndes-Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Clarke-
905 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Through 10 PM

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today. Damaging wind
gusts will be the primary hazard, but a tornado cannot be ruled
out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Areas of flash flooding are likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed, with rainfall totals near 3 to 5 inches
possible. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be possible
through this afternoon. A few downed trees and power lines are
possible, especially where the soil is saturated following recent
rainfall. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile
vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ030-033-038-044-281515-
Clay-Oktibbeha-Winston-Leake-
905 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeastern portions of
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Through 10 PM

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...This Afternoon through early this evening

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today. Damaging wind
gusts will be the primary hazard, but a tornado cannot be ruled
out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Areas of flash flooding are likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed, with rainfall totals near 3 to 5 inches
possible. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be possible
through this afternoon. A few downed trees and power lines are
possible, especially where the soil is saturated following recent
rainfall. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile
vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

LAZ023>026-MSZ048-053-059-060-281515-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Hinds-Claiborne-Jefferson-
Adams-
905 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and southwestern portions of central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Through 6 PM

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms are possible today. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary hazard, but a few tornadoes will be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be possible
through this afternoon. A few downed trees and power lines are
possible, especially where the soil is saturated following recent
rainfall. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile
vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ049-054-281515-
Rankin-Copiah-
905 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for Rankin and Copiah counties.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Through 6 PM

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Mainly Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms are possible today. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary hazard, but a few tornadoes will be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Areas of flash flooding are likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed, with rainfall totals near 3 to 5 inches
possible. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be possible
through this afternoon. A few downed trees and power lines are
possible, especially where the soil is saturated following recent
rainfall. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile
vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ061-281515-
Franklin MS-
905 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for Franklin County Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Through this afternoon

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms are possible today. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary hazard, but a few tornadoes will be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Areas of flash flooding are likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed, with rainfall totals near 3 to 5 inches
possible. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be possible
through this afternoon. A few downed trees and power lines are
possible, especially where the soil is saturated following recent
rainfall. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile
vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ055>057-062>066-072>074-281515-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-
Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
905 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southern and
southeastern portions of central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Through 10 PM

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms are possible today. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary hazard, but a few tornadoes will be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Areas of flash flooding are likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed, with rainfall totals near 3 to 5 inches
possible. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be possible
through this afternoon. A few downed trees and power lines are
possible, especially where the soil is saturated following recent
rainfall. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile
vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Extreme...Sustained winds 50 mph or greater or wind gusts 65 mph
 or greater.
Significant...Sustained winds 40-49 mph or wind gusts 58-64 mph.
Elevated...Sustained winds 30-39 mph or wind gusts 45-57 mph.
Limited...Sustained winds 20-29 mph or wind gusts 30 to 44 mph.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 27, 1:28 PM CST, 1 hour 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
128 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S PICKENS             32.82N 89.96W
12/27/2018                   MADISON            MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREES AND LINES DOWN NEAR OLD HWY 51 RD AND
            OAKS RD.

&&

CE

Local storm report, Dec 27, 1:34 PM CST, 1 hour 19 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
134 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0116 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE JACKSON            32.31N 90.19W
12/27/2018                   HINDS              MS   PUBLIC

            2 CARS SUBMERGED UNDER WATER ON MONUMENT ST
            AT THE VIADUCT.

&&

Local storm report, Dec 27, 1:35 PM CST, 1 hour 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
135 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE SALLIS            33.01N 89.73W
12/27/2018                   ATTALA             MS   UTILITY COMPANY

            TREES AND LINES DOWN ALONG SALLIS-MCADAMS
            RD.

&&

CE

Special weather statement, Dec 27, 1:47 PM CST, 1 hour 6 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
147 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

MSZ055-056-063>065-072-272030-
Smith MS-Lawrence MS-Jefferson Davis MS-Covington MS-Simpson MS-
Marion MS-
147 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON...NORTHERN
MARION...SOUTH CENTRAL SMITH...EASTERN LAWRENCE...WESTERN COVINGTON
AND JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CST...

At 146 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Clem to Tilton. Movement was east at
30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Clem around 150 PM CST.
  Progress around 155 PM CST.
  Society Hill around 200 PM CST.
  Mount Olive around 210 PM CST.
  Bunker Hill and Carson around 215 PM CST.
  Melba around 230 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Bassfield, New
Hebron and Silver Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CST for south central,
central and southeastern Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3182 8999 3184 8948 3162 8952 3143 8960
      3143 8965 3136 8965 3136 9012
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 268DEG 26KT 3178 8983 3142 9002

DC

Special weather statement, Dec 27, 1:50 PM CST, 1 hour 3 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
150 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

MSZ031-272015-
Lowndes MS-
150 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LOWNDES COUNTY
UNTIL 215 PM CST...

At 150 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Bedford to near Columbus. Movement
was east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Lowndes County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3346 8828 3342 8845 3368 8843 3367 8842
      3368 8842 3368 8840 3369 8839 3369 8837
      3372 8833 3374 8833 3374 8825
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 262DEG 30KT 3383 8830 3344 8835

DC

Local storm report, Dec 27, 2:00 PM CST, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
200 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ENE YAZOO CITY        32.88N 90.38W
12/27/2018                   YAZOO              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON A HOUSE ON WILDWOOD
            TERRACE EXT IN YAZOO CITY.

&&

JC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 26, 6:40 PM CST	River Flood Warning	JAN	Neshoba	14 days
Dec 26, 6:40 PM CST	River Flood Warning	JAN	Leake	5 days
Dec 26, 6:42 PM CST	River Flood Warning	JAN	Attala, Holmes	15 days
Dec 26, 8:58 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Covington, Forrest, Jefferson Davis, Lamar, Marion	47 min
Dec 27, 9:05 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Issaquena, Warren	55 min
Dec 27, 9:43 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Hinds, Issaquena, Sharkey, Warren, Yazoo	47 min
Dec 27, 10:05 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Adams, Jefferson	40 min
Dec 27, 10:17 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Adams, Claiborne, Copiah, Franklin, Hinds, Jefferson and 1 more	3 hr
Dec 27, 10:20 AM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Hinds, Madison, Yazoo	55 min
Dec 27, 10:31 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Hinds, Madison, Rankin	44 min
Dec 27, 10:40 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Adams, Franklin, Jefferson	65 min
Dec 27, 10:44 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Holmes, Humphreys, Yazoo	46 min
Dec 27, 11:09 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Attala, Holmes, Leake, Madison, Yazoo	51 min
Dec 27, 11:14 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Leake, Madison, Rankin, Scott	46 min
Dec 27, 11:30 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Attala, Carroll, Choctaw, Holmes, Montgomery	45 min
Dec 27, 11:33 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Hinds, Madison, Rankin	3 hr
Dec 27, 11:37 AM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Copiah, Franklin, Jefferson, Lawrence, Lincoln, Simpson	3 hr
Dec 27, 11:42 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Grenada, Montgomery	33 min
Dec 27, 11:53 AM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Attala, Leake	37 min
Dec 27, 12:15 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Choctaw, Oktibbeha, Webster	45 min
Dec 27, 12:25 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Neshoba, Winston	50 min
Dec 27, 12:54 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Clay, Lowndes, Oktibbeha	51 min
Dec 27, 1:08 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Noxubee	52 min
Dec 27, 1:47 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Covington, Jefferson Davis	43 min
Dec 27, 1:50 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Lowndes	25 min
Dec 27, 1:53 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Covington, Jefferson Davis, Lamar, Lawrence, Lincoln, Marion and 3 more	3 hr
Dec 27, 2:41 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Clarke, Jasper, Kemper, Lauderdale, Neshoba, Newton	2 hr
Dec 27, 3:17 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Jones	28 min
Dec 27, 3:26 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	JAN	Clarke	34 min
Dec 27, 4:56 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Covington, Jefferson Davis, Lamar, Marion	64 min
Dec 27, 5:44 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Covington, Forrest, Jefferson Davis, Jones, Lamar, Marion	4 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2018 Every flash flood warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.