Alert archive / Mississippi / Flash Flood Warnings in 2018

Flash Flood Warning 102, NWS Jackson, MS

December 27, 2018Concordia Parish, Tensas Parish, Louisiana; 7 counties in Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this flash flood warning at Dec 27, 2018, 10:17 AM CST for Concordia Parish, Tensas Parish, Louisiana; 7 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 3 hr. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Dec 27, 2018, 10:17 AM CST (16:17 UTC)
Expired
Dec 27, 2018, 1:15 PM CST
In force
3 hr
Issued by
NWS Jackson, MS
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Concordia Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Warren County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Dec 27, 10:55 AM CSTFLASH FLOOD9 Nw Rocky Springs, MSCORRECTS PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD REPORT FROM 9 NW ROCKY SPRINGS. REPORT OF JEFF DAVIS RD. FLOODED NEAR 61.
Dec 27, 10:55 AM CSTFLASH FLOOD9 Nw Rocky Springs, MSREPORT OF JEFF DAVID RODE FLOODED NEAR 61.
Dec 27, 11:00 AM CSTFLASH FLOOD1 Ese Natchez, MSA FEW NEIGHBORHOOD STREETS ARE FLOODED IN NATCHEZ, LINDBURG AREA.
Dec 27, 11:25 AM CSTFLASH FLOOD1 Se Natchez, MSCAR FLOATING WITH WATER RESCUE UNDERWAY AT TURTLE LN AND EASTWOOD RD.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 4 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 38 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2018-12-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 12:00Z on 2018-12-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 466 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
591 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
466 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
893 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

798 
WGUS54 KJAN 271617
FFWJAN
LAC029-107-MSC001-021-029-037-049-063-149-271915-
/O.NEW.KJAN.FF.W.0102.181227T1617Z-181227T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1017 AM CST THU DEC 27 2018

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Tensas Parish in northeastern Louisiana...
  Central Concordia Parish in northeastern Louisiana...
  Central Warren County in west central Mississippi...
  Claiborne County in southwestern Mississippi...
  Jefferson County in southwestern Mississippi...
  Northwestern Franklin County in southwestern Mississippi...
  Western Hinds County in central Mississippi...
  Adams County in southwestern Mississippi...
  Northwestern Copiah County in central Mississippi...

* Until 115 PM CST.

* At 1017 AM CST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Flash flooding is expected to
  begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Vicksburg, Natchez, Vidalia, Alcorn, Raymond, Fayette, Port Gibson,
  Edwards, Utica, Bolton, Peyton, Rocky Springs, Stanton,
  Brownsville, Le Tourneau, Hamburg, Kingston, Lorman, Flowers and
  Spokane.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3175 9143 3176 9126 3176 9136 3185 9134
      3181 9126 3201 9108 3206 9116 3214 9100
      3216 9100 3213 9110 3222 9101 3220 9099
      3250 9078 3248 9031 3191 9055 3166 9090
      3134 9115 3132 9147 3119 9159 3124 9181

$$

EC
3 follow-up statements
310 
WGUS74 KJAN 271715
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1115 AM CST THU DEC 27 2018

LAC029-107-271723-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0102.000000T0000Z-181227T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Tensas LA-Concordia LA-
1115 AM CST THU DEC 27 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TENSAS AND CENTRAL
CONCORDIA PARISHES IS CANCELLED...

Heavy rainfall has moved out of the area for now, but please 
continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3159 9140 3201 9108 3206 9116 3208 9113
      3205 9108 3208 9108 3210 9103 3250 9078
      3248 9031 3191 9055 3165 9091 3134 9115
      3137 9127 3132 9147 3128 9151

$$

MSC001-021-029-037-049-063-149-271915-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0102.000000T0000Z-181227T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Warren MS-Claiborne MS-Jefferson MS-Franklin MS-Hinds MS-Adams MS-
Copiah MS-
1115 AM CST THU DEC 27 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CST FOR
CENTRAL WARREN...CLAIBORNE...JEFFERSON...NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...
WESTERN HINDS...ADAMS AND NORTHWESTERN COPIAH COUNTIES...

At 1113 AM CST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Up to three inches of rain have already 
fallen with reports of flash flooding in the Natchez and Vicksburg 
area.

Additional rainfall amounts of one to two inches are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3159 9140 3201 9108 3206 9116 3208 9113
      3205 9108 3208 9108 3210 9103 3250 9078
      3248 9031 3191 9055 3165 9091 3134 9115
      3137 9127 3132 9147 3128 9151

$$

EC
214 
WGUS74 KJAN 271837
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1237 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

MSC001-021-029-037-049-063-149-271915-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.W.0102.000000T0000Z-181227T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Warren MS-Claiborne MS-Jefferson MS-Franklin MS-Hinds MS-Adams MS-
Copiah MS-
1237 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CST FOR
CENTRAL WARREN...CLAIBORNE...JEFFERSON...NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...
WESTERN HINDS...ADAMS AND NORTHWESTERN COPIAH COUNTIES...

At 1235 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to three to four inches of 
rain have already fallen and flash flooding continues.

Additional rainfall amounts of up to an inch are possible in the 
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3159 9140 3201 9108 3206 9116 3208 9113
      3205 9108 3208 9108 3210 9103 3250 9078
      3248 9031 3191 9055 3165 9091 3134 9115
      3137 9127 3132 9147 3128 9151

$$

EC
743 
WGUS74 KJAN 271911
FFSJAN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
111 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

MSC001-021-029-037-049-063-149-271920-
/O.EXP.KJAN.FF.W.0102.000000T0000Z-181227T1915Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Warren MS-Claiborne MS-Jefferson MS-Franklin MS-Hinds MS-Adams MS-
Copiah MS-
111 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR CENTRAL WARREN...CLAIBORNE...
JEFFERSON...NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...WESTERN HINDS...ADAMS AND
NORTHWESTERN COPIAH COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 115 PM CST...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3159 9140 3201 9108 3206 9116 3208 9113
      3205 9108 3208 9108 3210 9103 3250 9078
      3248 9031 3191 9055 3165 9091 3134 9115
      3137 9127 3132 9147 3128 9151

$$

DC

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Dec 27, 5:54 AM CST, 4 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 27, 5:54 AM CST, 4 hours 23 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
554 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion: Widespread MVFR Cigs were observed at 1130Z
along with a gusty se wind. Gusty southerly winds are expected
through most of the TAF period, with increasing chances for SHRA
and TSRA as a line of storms moves west to east through the
region. MVFR conditions wl prevail as the storms affect each TAF
site, however brief periods of IFR or lower ceilings and
visibility may occur as the heaviest rain moves through. Wind gust
potential will diminish generally after the line of storms moves
east of each TAF site. /NF/22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: Starting out early this morning, a low
pressure system lifting from the TX Panhandle into the Midwest
will keep a tight pressure gradient and mid-level height gradient
across our forecast area. This pattern will see continued strong
warm, moist advection through the afternoon and evening until the
associated cold front pushes into our region. Gusty winds
overnight have mostly been in the 20 to 25 mph range, however a
gust or two as high as 40 mph have been measured tonight. A Wind
Advisory remains in place through 6 PM this evening for areas
mostly likely to see gusts over 40 mph during the day, however
expect most of the highest gradient wind gust potential to be
focused this morning through early in the afternoon before the
focus turns to possibly severe thunderstorms.

Surface-based instability will be minimal to start the day, since
low clouds will limit daytime heating. But with ongoing warm
advection, a surge of temps and dewpoints around 65 degrees will
spread north from the Gulf Coast toward the Interstate 20 corridor
through the day. In this more unstable airmass, strongly sheared
thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
possibly a few brief tornadoes. Poor low-level lapse rates will
be a limiting factor for tornadoes, but marginal instability and
strong shear warrant the Slight Risk. North of the Interstate 20
corridor, isolated stronger to marginally severe thunderstorms
will still be possible; however the primary threat will be
damaging wind gusts especially if higher winds off the surface can
be mixed down by strong showers and storms.

Lastly, it must be noted that anomalously high atmospheric
moisture will be advected northward ahead of the front, increasing
the possibility for high rainfall rates and flash flooding.
Forecast PWAT values in excess of 1.5 inches are near the
climatological max for this time of year, and the combination of
instability and lift will result in efficient rainfall producing
showers and storms. The flash flooding threat will be greatest -
an Elevated Risk - for areas south and east of the Natchez Trace,
or from roughly Natchez northeast through the Golden Triangle and
through the Pine Belt. These areas have the greatest chance of
seeing more than one round of heavy rain through tomorrow morning.
There is a Flash Flood Watch in effect from Noon today through 6
AM Friday for these areas as well. Elsewhere, average rainfall
totals will be less, and the threat for Flash Flooding will be
Limited. /NF/

Friday through Wednesday: Mostly wet with warmer than normal
temperatures will be the rule. Friday morning as the first low
pressure system pulls away to the northeast, a second closed low
will be dropping over the Four Corners region. As a result, our
flow aloft will remain southwesterly and help stall the cold front
associated with the departing low pressure system. Model
consensus still suggests this cold front will stall just southeast
of our CWA Friday afternoon. The rain will taper off during the
afternoon and dry weather is expected Friday evening but, light
rain is expected back across our southern most zones before
sunrise Saturday. Models are in better agreement this run with the
evolution of this closed low and a disturbance rounding its base
that will help the precipitation spread north over our CWA
Saturday as it approaches.

Rain is expected back over our whole CWA again by Saturday
afternoon. Rain chances will continue over most of our CWA til New
Years Day when the northwest may see a brief end to the rain
before rain chances expand back across our whole CWA Wednesday.
Essentially, this second low pressure system will take until
Sunday night to lift out to the northeast and drop a trailing cold
front into our CWA Monday. The rain will end in the wake of the
cold front but a broad upper level trough dropping over the
Rockies Monday will maintain our southwest flow aloft and help
stall the cold front across our southeast. This will result in
rain chances continuing across our southeast New Years Day. The
upper level trough axis looks to shift east across our CWA
Wednesday bringing an end to the wet weather pattern and cooler
temperatures Thursday. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       68  55  65  43 / 100  83  14   9
Meridian      68  61  68  46 / 100 100  47  11
Vicksburg     71  52  62  43 / 100  46  12   8
Hattiesburg   69  63  67  50 / 100 100  58  24
Natchez       71  52  63  44 / 100  53  13  15
Greenville    67  49  59  37 / 100  35   9   7
Greenwood     68  52  60  39 / 100  63  12   8

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ018-019-025>045-
     047>050-053-054-059-060.

     Flash Flood Watch from noon CST today through late tonight for
     MSZ030-031-033-038-039-044>046-049>052-054>058-061>066-
     072>074.

LA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

NF/22
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 27, 9:05 AM CST, 1 hour 12 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
905 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-MSZ018-019-025>029-034>037-040>043-
047-281515-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-
Webster-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Issaquena-Sharkey-
Yazoo-Madison MS-Warren-
905 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northwestern portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northwest Mississippi,
and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Through 6 PM

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today. Damaging wind
gusts will be the primary hazard, but a tornado cannot be ruled
out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be possible
through this afternoon. A few downed trees and power lines are
possible, especially where the soil is saturated following recent
rainfall. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile
vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ032-281515-
Choctaw-
905 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for Choctaw County,
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Through 10 PM.

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today. Damaging wind
gusts will be the primary hazard, but a tornado cannot be ruled
out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be possible
through this afternoon. A few downed trees and power lines are
possible, especially where the soil is saturated following recent
rainfall. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile
vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ031-039-045-046-050>052-058-281515-
Lowndes-Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Clarke-
905 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern portions of central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Through 10 PM

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today. Damaging wind
gusts will be the primary hazard, but a tornado cannot be ruled
out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Areas of flash flooding are likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed, with rainfall totals near 3 to 5 inches
possible. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be possible
through this afternoon. A few downed trees and power lines are
possible, especially where the soil is saturated following recent
rainfall. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile
vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ030-033-038-044-281515-
Clay-Oktibbeha-Winston-Leake-
905 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northeastern portions of
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Through 10 PM

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...This Afternoon through early this evening

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today. Damaging wind
gusts will be the primary hazard, but a tornado cannot be ruled
out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Areas of flash flooding are likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed, with rainfall totals near 3 to 5 inches
possible. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be possible
through this afternoon. A few downed trees and power lines are
possible, especially where the soil is saturated following recent
rainfall. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile
vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

LAZ023>026-MSZ048-053-059-060-281515-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Hinds-Claiborne-Jefferson-
Adams-
905 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and southwestern portions of central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Through 6 PM

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms are possible today. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary hazard, but a few tornadoes will be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be possible
through this afternoon. A few downed trees and power lines are
possible, especially where the soil is saturated following recent
rainfall. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile
vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ049-054-281515-
Rankin-Copiah-
905 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for Rankin and Copiah counties.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Through 6 PM

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Mainly Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms are possible today. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary hazard, but a few tornadoes will be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Areas of flash flooding are likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed, with rainfall totals near 3 to 5 inches
possible. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be possible
through this afternoon. A few downed trees and power lines are
possible, especially where the soil is saturated following recent
rainfall. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile
vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ061-281515-
Franklin MS-
905 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for Franklin County Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Through this afternoon

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms are possible today. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary hazard, but a few tornadoes will be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Areas of flash flooding are likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed, with rainfall totals near 3 to 5 inches
possible. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be possible
through this afternoon. A few downed trees and power lines are
possible, especially where the soil is saturated following recent
rainfall. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile
vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ055>057-062>066-072>074-281515-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-
Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
905 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southern and
southeastern portions of central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Through 10 PM

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Severe thunderstorms are possible today. Damaging wind gusts will
be the primary hazard, but a few tornadoes will be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Areas of flash flooding are likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed, with rainfall totals near 3 to 5 inches
possible. Some structures may be potentially threatened by high
water. Minor river flooding is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of up to 40 mph will be possible
through this afternoon. A few downed trees and power lines are
possible, especially where the soil is saturated following recent
rainfall. Travel will also be difficult for those in high profile
vehicles.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Extreme...Sustained winds 50 mph or greater or wind gusts 65 mph
 or greater.
Significant...Sustained winds 40-49 mph or wind gusts 58-64 mph.
Elevated...Sustained winds 30-39 mph or wind gusts 45-57 mph.
Limited...Sustained winds 20-29 mph or wind gusts 30 to 44 mph.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 27, 10:01 AM CST, 16 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1001 AM CST THU DEC 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 N WASHINGTON          31.61N 91.30W
12/27/2018  M41 MPH          ADAMS              MS   PUBLIC

            OBSERVED AT THE NATCHEZ AIRPORT.

&&

DL
Local storm report, Dec 27, 10:08 AM CST, 9 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1008 AM CST THU DEC 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE FLOWOOD           32.31N 90.08W
12/27/2018  M40 MPH          RANKIN             MS   ASOS

            OBSERVED AT THE JAN AIRPORT.

&&

DL
Local storm report, Dec 27, 10:09 AM CST, 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1009 AM CST THU DEC 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW JACKSON            32.33N 90.22W
12/27/2018  M40 MPH          HINDS              MS   ASOS

            OBSERVED AT THE HKS AIRPORT.

&&

DL
Local storm report, Dec 27, 10:10 AM CST, 7 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1010 AM CST THU DEC 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0948 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N VICKSBURG           32.35N 90.87W
12/27/2018                   WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES WERE BLOWN DOWN ACROSS WARREN
            COUNTY.

&&

JC
Local storm report, Dec 27, 10:11 AM CST, 6 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1011 AM CST THU DEC 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0954 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE VICKSBURG          32.34N 90.85W
12/27/2018                   WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLASH FLOODING OCCURRED ON CLAY STREET AND
            HIGHWAY 61 SOUTH.

&&

JC
Local storm report, Dec 27, 10:14 AM CST, 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1014 AM CST THU DEC 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0844 AM     TSTM WND DMG     11 SSW DELHI            32.30N 91.55W
12/27/2018                   FRANKLIN           LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY TREES DOWN IN AND AROUND CROWVILLE,
            TREES DOWN ON HOMES, ROOF DAMAGE AND POWER
            LINES DOWN. MUCH OF THIS IS ALONG HWY 17.
            POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

CE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 27, 8:36 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANFranklin24 min
Dec 27, 8:41 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANFranklin, Madison, Richland, Tensas33 min
Dec 27, 8:44 AM CSTTornado WarningJANFranklin, Madison, Tensas29 min
Dec 27, 9:05 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANEast Carroll, Madison, Tensas55 min
Dec 27, 9:43 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANMadison47 min
Dec 27, 10:05 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCatahoula, Concordia40 min
Dec 26, 6:40 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANNeshoba14 days
Dec 26, 6:40 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANLeake5 days
Dec 26, 6:42 PM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANAttala, Holmes15 days
Dec 26, 8:58 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANCovington, Forrest, Jefferson Davis, Lamar, Marion47 min
Dec 27, 10:20 AM CSTTornado WarningJANHinds, Madison, Yazoo55 min
Dec 27, 10:31 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANHinds, Madison, Rankin44 min
Dec 27, 10:40 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAdams, Franklin, Jefferson65 min
Dec 27, 10:44 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANHolmes, Humphreys, Yazoo46 min
Dec 27, 11:09 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAttala, Holmes, Leake, Madison, Yazoo51 min
Dec 27, 11:14 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANLeake, Madison, Rankin, Scott46 min
Dec 27, 11:30 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAttala, Carroll, Choctaw, Holmes, Montgomery45 min
Dec 27, 11:33 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANHinds, Madison, Rankin3 hr
Dec 27, 11:37 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANCopiah, Franklin, Jefferson, Lawrence, Lincoln, Simpson3 hr
Dec 27, 11:42 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANGrenada, Montgomery33 min
Dec 27, 11:53 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAttala, Leake37 min
Dec 27, 12:15 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANChoctaw, Oktibbeha, Webster45 min
Dec 27, 12:25 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANNeshoba, Winston50 min
Dec 27, 12:54 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANClay, Lowndes, Oktibbeha51 min
Dec 27, 1:08 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANNoxubee52 min
Dec 27, 1:47 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANCovington, Jefferson Davis43 min
Dec 27, 1:50 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANLowndes25 min
Dec 27, 1:53 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANCovington, Jefferson Davis, Lamar, Lawrence, Lincoln, Marion and 3 more3 hr
Dec 27, 2:41 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANClarke, Jasper, Kemper, Lauderdale, Neshoba, Newton2 hr
Dec 27, 2:53 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANForrest, Jones, Lamar3 hr
Dec 27, 3:17 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANJones28 min
Dec 27, 3:26 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANClarke34 min
Dec 27, 4:56 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANCovington, Jefferson Davis, Lamar, Marion64 min
Dec 27, 5:44 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANCovington, Forrest, Jefferson Davis, Jones, Lamar, Marion4 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Mississippi, 2018Flash Flood Warnings in Louisiana, 2018Every flash flood warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.