Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Lake Charles, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1151 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...
For 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Local 88Ds currently show the squall line moving into the
KLFT/KARA areas where heavier precip/lower visibilities are being
carried in the short-term. Behind the line, ceilings/visibilities
have risen to VFR levels and are progged to remain so through the
remainder of the forecast period. Light and somewhat variable
winds are expected until the frontal passage when a slightly
elevated nrly flow will develop.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 512 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A squall line extends from northwest Louisiana southwest to the
central Texas coast this morning. This line is producing copious
amounts of rains along with lightning ahead of the first front
that is projected through the region today. The storm system is
being enhanced by warm gulf moisture spilling in from the gulf as
dew points are running in the upper 60s. Winds at 850 are around
45 knots with CAPE approaching 950 j/kg.The LFC and LCL remain
just off surface with helicity from sfc to 2 km 216 m2/s2 and
precip water above 1.50 inches. The strongest mid-level support
still lies back to the northwest somewhat at this time. There is a
Tornado Watch posted for all of southeast Texas and southwest
Louisiana with the watch extending into south central Louisiana at
this time. This will be in effect until 11 am. In addition winds
remain brisk over the coastal counties and parishes ahead of the
front and a Wind Advisory has been extended till noon today. The
storm line is moving slowly and is going to produce copious
amounts to rainfall with most locations receiving around two
inches of rainfall with isolated amounts above four inches where
storms train for several hours.

The frontal activity is expected to push on through southeast
Texas and southwest Louisiana by later this afternoon but looks
to become hung up over southeast Louisiana and extend into
Mississippi. Friday looks to be the only day where rain activity
will be at a minimum but rains will again develop over the
weekend and into next week. Storms are expected to taper off by
Monday with the next frontal passage towards the middle of the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  68  46  62  45 / 100  20  10  20
LCH  70  50  65  50 / 100  20  10  20
LFT  72  54  65  52 /  80  70  20  20
BPT  70  49  66  51 / 100  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for LAZ041>045-052>055-073-
     074.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for LAZ041-
     052>054-073-074.

TX...Wind Advisory until noon CST today for TXZ215-216.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for TXZ215-
     216.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ452-455-
     472-475.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ450-
     470.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM
     CST this evening for GMZ450-470.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening for
     GMZ430-432-435.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
432 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262-
281045-
Vernon-Rapides-Avoyelles-Beauregard-Allen-Evangeline-St. Landry-
Calcasieu-Jefferson Davis-Acadia-Lafayette-Upper St. Martin-
Vermilion-Iberia-St. Mary-Lower St. Martin-West Cameron-
East Cameron-Tyler-Hardin-Jefferson-Orange-Northern Jasper-
Northern Newton-Southern Jasper-Southern Newton-
432 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Louisiana, south central Louisiana, southwest Louisiana, west
central Louisiana, and southeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Strong thunderstorms will rumble through southeast Texas and
southwest Louisiana this morning. A Tornado Watch has been posted
until 11 am. Storm activity is expected to taper off over
southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana this afternoon but will
continue in south central Louisiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday
Tomorrow will see a break in the rains but rains return on
Saturday and Sunday and into the first part of next week. As a
result of the rains look for the rivers to rise with some
locations moving into flood.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-281045-
Sabine Lake-Calcasieu Lake-Vermilion Bay-
Coastal waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Intracoastal City to Cameron LA out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
LA out 20 NM-
Waters from Cameron LA to High Island TX from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from  Intracoastal City to Cameron LA from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Lower Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City LA from
20 to 60 NM-
432 AM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Very windy in the coastal waters with Gale Force winds possible
through 6 am and then a Small Craft Advisory has been posted into
the afternoon hours. Seas will start out 7 to 10 feet and slowly
fall into the afternoon hours as winds begin to relax. Storms will
continue in the coastal waters of south central Louisiana into
the evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday
Things will settle a bit on Friday with winds picking back up on
Saturday into Sunday. Look for storms continuing in the coastal
waters over the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...