Alert archive / New Jersey / Tornado Watches in 2018
Tornado Watch 394
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 2, 2018, 4:57 PM EDT for Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, Northwest Hills Planning Region, Connecticut; 6 counties in New Jersey; 6 counties in New York. It was in force for 7 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 2, 2018, 4:57 PM EDT (20:57 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 3, 2018, 12:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 7 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
Counties Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Northwest Hills Planning Region, CT, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Dutchess County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Westchester County, NY
The radar
The Albany radar (KENX), 127 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 40%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 30%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 20%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 50%
Warnings issued inside it
9 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 5:28 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OKX | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region | 20 min |
| Oct 2, 5:33 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | OKX | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region | 12 min |
| Oct 2, 6:43 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | OKX | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region | 47 min |
| Oct 2, 6:49 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | OKX | Orange, Rockland, Westchester | 3 hr |
| Oct 2, 7:22 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Warren | 53 min |
| Oct 2, 7:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Sussex | 52 min |
| Oct 2, 8:38 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | PHI | Morris, Sussex | 22 min |
| Oct 2, 8:56 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Morris, Sussex, Warren | 49 min |
| Oct 2, 10:13 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | OKX | Bergen | 2 hr |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 54 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -30 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 563 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 35 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 85 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 83 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
982 WWUS20 KWNS 022054 SEL4 SPC WW 022054 CTZ000-NJZ000-NYZ000-030400- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 394 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western Connecticut Northern New Jersey Southeast New York * Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 455 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Near an effective warm front, at least some supercell tornado risk will likely persist this evening, and potentially even somewhat increase as winds just above the surface strengthen across the region. Aside from a tornado risk, some hail/wind may also occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 30 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west southwest of Poughkeepsie NY to 35 miles east southeast of Poughkeepsie NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 392...WW 393... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Guyer
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 3:10 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 2 hr | |
| Oct 2, 7:24 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 81 min | |
| Oct 2, 4:43 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Warren | 2 hr |
| Oct 2, 2:55 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Sullivan | 8 hr |
| Oct 2, 4:05 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Erie, Livingston, Ontario and 5 more | 115 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in New Jersey, 2018Tornado Watches in New York, 2018Tornado Watches in Connecticut, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.