Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2018
Mesoscale Discussion 1513
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 2, 2018, 4:05 PM EDT for 11 counties in New York. It was in force for 115 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 2, 2018, 4:05 PM EDT (20:05 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 2, 2018, 6:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 115 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Allegany County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Erie County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 62 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 13 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -93 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 476 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 49 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 205 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 232 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.2
The text
As transmitted.
002
ACUS11 KWNS 022006
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022005
NYZ000-022200-
Mesoscale Discussion 1513
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Tue Oct 02 2018
Areas affected...Western New York
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 022005Z - 022200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few rotating storms have been recently noted in western
NY on KBUF radar. A WW may be needed if these trends continue.
DISCUSSION...Storms near a diffuse surface boundary along the NY/PA
border have shown an increase in low/mid-level rotation over the
course of the last hour on KBUF radar imagery. Given the favorable
deep layer shear of 45-50 kts and KBUF VAD showing near 200 m2/s2
0-3 km SRH, conditions are favorable for possible tornado
development with any of the stronger storms that can develop. The
main source of uncertainty is how much instability is present. A
general area of broken cirrus clouds over portions of central NY has
allowed temperatures to rise to the low 70s in a few locations --
potentially yielding 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. These areas will continue
to be monitored for possible tornado watch issuance should
conditions for rotating storms continue to increase.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 10/02/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 42867869 42957820 42917687 42607666 42327684 42087741
42167827 42167926 42437954 42857903 42867869SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2:55 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Sullivan | 8 hr |
| Oct 2, 3:10 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bronx, Dutchess, Kings, New York, Orange, Putnam and 3 more | 2 hr |
| Oct 2, 4:43 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Sullivan | 2 hr |
| Oct 2, 4:57 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Dutchess, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Ulster, Westchester | 7 hr |
| Oct 2, 7:24 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dutchess, Orange, Putnam, Rockland, Sullivan, Westchester | 81 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2018Every mesoscale discussion in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.