Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Watches in 2018
Tornado Watch 138
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 31, 2018, 1:57 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 31, 2018, 1:57 PM CDT (18:57 UTC)
- Expired
- May 31, 2018, 8:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2.5 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 68 counties
Clay County, AR, Greene County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Randolph County, AR, Alexander County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Hardin County, IL, Jackson County, IL, Johnson County, IL, Massac County, IL, Perry County, IL, Pope County, IL, Pulaski County, IL, Randolph County, IL, Union County, IL, Williamson County, IL, Ballard County, KY, Caldwell County, KY, Carlisle County, KY, Christian County, KY, Crittenden County, KY, Fulton County, KY, Graves County, KY, Hickman County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Livingston County, KY, Lyon County, KY, Marshall County, KY, McCracken County, KY, Webster County, KY, Barry County, MO, Bollinger County, MO, Butler County, MO, Cape Girardeau County, MO, Carter County, MO, Christian County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Dunklin County, MO, Greene County, MO, Howell County, MO, Iron County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Madison County, MO, Mississippi County, MO, New Madrid County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Perry County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Reynolds County, MO, Ripley County, MO, Saint Francois County, MO, Sainte Genevieve County, MO, Scott County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Stoddard County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Washington County, MO, Wayne County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 40%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 70%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 80%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 70%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 95%
Warnings issued inside it
53 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2:36 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PAH | Alexander | 39 min |
| May 31, 3:00 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Ballard, McCracken | 3 hr |
| May 31, 3:13 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PAH | Ballard, McCracken | 62 min |
| May 31, 3:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PAH | Massac | 60 min |
| May 31, 4:05 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PAH | Massac, Pope | 55 min |
| May 31, 4:08 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Christian, Stone, Taney | 52 min |
| May 31, 4:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Howell, Shannon, Texas | 50 min |
| May 31, 4:22 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Howell | 53 min |
| May 31, 4:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PAH | Christian, Trigg | 30 min |
| May 31, 4:34 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PAH | Massac | 26 min |
| May 31, 4:42 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Ozark, Taney | 48 min |
| May 31, 4:45 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | SGF | Oregon, Shannon | 30 min |
| May 31, 4:47 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PAH | Massac | 28 min |
| May 31, 4:49 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PAH | Carter | 41 min |
| May 31, 4:55 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Christian, Muhlenberg, Todd | 3 hr |
| May 31, 5:01 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Howell, Oregon | 44 min |
| May 31, 5:03 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PAH | Christian, Todd | 27 min |
| May 31, 5:14 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | PAH | Carter | 3 hr |
| May 31, 5:23 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Ozark, Taney | 33 min |
| May 31, 5:27 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PAH | Carter | 48 min |
| May 31, 5:33 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Shannon, Texas | 42 min |
| May 31, 5:39 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LSX | Iron, Reynolds | 36 min |
| May 31, 5:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Oregon | 24 min |
| May 31, 6:08 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Ozark, Taney | 52 min |
| May 31, 6:16 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Wright | 44 min |
| May 31, 6:19 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Shannon | 41 min |
| May 31, 6:21 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Christian, Douglas, Taney | 39 min |
| May 31, 6:27 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Douglas, Wright | 48 min |
| May 31, 6:32 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Dent, Shannon, Texas | 43 min |
| May 31, 6:36 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | SGF | Dent | 24 min |
| May 31, 6:43 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | SGF | Dent, Texas | 32 min |
| May 31, 6:49 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LSX | Iron, Reynolds | 41 min |
| May 31, 6:58 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Douglas, Ozark, Taney | 28 min |
| May 31, 7:00 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Shannon | 18 min |
| May 31, 7:03 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LSX | Crawford, Iron, Washington | 57 min |
| May 31, 7:03 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | SGF | Dent, Shannon, Texas | 27 min |
| May 31, 7:08 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Ozark, Taney | 52 min |
| May 31, 7:10 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SGF | Ozark, Taney | 4 hr |
| May 31, 7:14 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Barry, Stone | 14 min |
| May 31, 7:16 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SGF | Shannon | 4 hr |
| May 31, 7:17 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PAH | Johnson, Saline, Williamson | 12 min |
| May 31, 7:19 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Dent | 26 min |
| May 31, 7:24 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Dent, Shannon | 51 min |
| May 31, 7:28 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LSX | Iron, Reynolds | 32 min |
| May 31, 7:33 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LSX | Sainte Genevieve, Saint Francois, Washington | 35 min |
| May 31, 7:35 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Texas | 40 min |
| May 31, 7:40 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Douglas, Texas, Wright | 50 min |
| May 31, 7:44 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | PAH | Union | 31 min |
| May 31, 7:55 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Dent, Shannon, Texas | 50 min |
| May 31, 7:57 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LSX | Iron, Washington | 12 min |
| May 31, 7:57 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | SGF | Douglas, Wright | 4 hr |
| May 31, 7:57 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Christian, Douglas, Webster, Wright | 13 min |
| May 31, 7:59 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Shannon | 11 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 133 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -299 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 880 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -216 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -160 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.9
The text
As transmitted.
712
WWUS20 KWNS 311855
SEL8
SPC WW 311855
ARZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-010100-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
200 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northern Arkansas
Southwest Illinois
Southern Missouri
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until
800 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to form over southern Missouri
this afternoon and track eastward across the watch area. Intense
storms capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
tornadoes will be possible.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 30 miles southwest of Springfield MO
to 35 miles southeast of Carbondale IL. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 136...WW 137...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 28030.
...HartSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2:59 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Boone, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Johnson and 3 more | 61 min |
| May 31, 12:24 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clay, Fulton and 4 more | 96 min |
| May 31, 4:42 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Randolph | 2 hr |
| May 31, 5:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Fulton, Greene, Independence and 8 more | 2 hr |
| May 31, 10:16 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Crawford, Edwards, Effingham, Gallatin, Hamilton and 9 more | 119 min |
| May 31, 10:31 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clark, Clay, Crawford, Cumberland, Edwards, Effingham and 8 more | 6 hr |
| May 31, 11:26 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bath, Bell, Bourbon, Boyle, Breathitt and 39 more | 64 min |
| May 31, 1:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Boone, Bourbon, Bracken, Breckinridge, Bullitt and 25 more | 85 min |
| May 31, 1:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Boone, Bracken, Campbell, Carroll, Gallatin, Grant and 6 more | 3 hr |
| May 31, 2:29 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Allen, Barren, Clinton, Cumberland, Edmonson and 9 more | 91 min |
| May 31, 2:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bath, Bourbon, Boyle, Bracken, Breathitt and 37 more | 64 min |
| May 31, 3:27 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Clinton, Harlan, Knox, Leslie, Letcher and 3 more | 93 min |
| May 31, 3:44 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bracken, Lewis, Mason | 91 min |
| May 31, 4:31 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bell, Clinton, Cumberland, McCreary, Russell, Wayne and 1 more | 59 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2018Tornado Watches in Kentucky, 2018Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2018Every tornado watch in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.