Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS St. Louis, MO

May 31, 2018Iron County, Reynolds County, Missouri

NWS St. Louis, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 31, 2018, 5:39 PM CDT for Iron County, Reynolds County, Missouri. It was in force for 36 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 31, 2018, 5:39 PM CDT (22:39 UTC)
Expired: May 31, 2018, 6:15 PM CDT
In force: 36 min
Issued by: NWS St. Louis, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Iron County, MO, Reynolds County, MO

The radar

The St Louis radar (KLSX), 145 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 31, 1:57 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 268 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 133 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -299 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 880 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -216 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -160 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

999 
WUUS53 KLSX 312239
SVRLSX
MOC093-179-312345-
/O.NEW.KLSX.SV.W.0083.180531T2239Z-180531T2345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service St Louis MO
539 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

The National Weather Service in St Louis has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Eastern Iron County in southeastern Missouri...
  Northeastern Reynolds County in southeastern Missouri...

* Until 645 PM CDT.

* At 538 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles east of
  Reynolds, moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
  Reynolds, Ellington, Annapolis, Glover, Centerville, Sabula,
  Chloride, Corridon, Redford, Hogan and Lesterville.

This also includes  Johnsons Shut-Ins State Park and Taum Sauk
Mountain State Park.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for southeastern
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3737 9113 3767 9076 3741 9055 3736 9055
      3722 9096
TIME...MOT...LOC 2238Z 239DEG 27KT 3736 9094 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kanofsky

3 follow-up statements

783 
WWUS53 KLSX 312256
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
556 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

MOC093-179-312345-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-180531T2345Z/
Iron MO-Reynolds MO-
556 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN IRON AND NORTHEASTERN REYNOLDS COUNTIES...

At 556 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Annapolis,
moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Annapolis, Glover, Centerville, Sabula, Chloride, Hogan, Lesterville
and Black.

This also includes  Johnsons Shut-Ins State Park and Taum Sauk
Mountain State Park.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for southeastern
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3767 9076 3741 9055 3736 9055 3727 9081
      3746 9102
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 245DEG 26KT 3741 9079 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kanofsky

904 
WWUS53 KLSX 312304
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
604 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

MOC179-312314-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-180531T2345Z/
Reynolds MO-
604 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN REYNOLDS COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for southeastern
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3737 9075 3738 9077 3758 9077 3761 9071
      3741 9055 3736 9055 3734 9075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 245DEG 26KT 3744 9072 

$$

MOC093-312345-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-180531T2345Z/
Iron MO-
604 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY...

At 604 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Glover, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Annapolis, Glover, Sabula, Chloride and Hogan. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for southeastern
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3737 9075 3738 9077 3758 9077 3761 9071
      3741 9055 3736 9055 3734 9075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 245DEG 26KT 3744 9072 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Kanofsky

609 
WWUS53 KLSX 312315
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
615 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

MOC093-312325-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-180531T2345Z/
Iron MO-
615 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail, gusty
winds, and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for southeastern
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3737 9075 3738 9077 3758 9077 3761 9071
      3741 9055 3736 9055 3734 9075
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 239DEG 27KT 3748 9063 

$$

Kanofsky

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 31, 5:12 PM CDT, 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 31, 5:12 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
512 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Next round of severe thunderstorms is imminent.

The current weather setup shows one MCV just southwest of Hannibal,
Missouri and this has maintained a steady area of clouds and showers
around and just ahead of it, and is affecting the Quincy area.
Areas further to the south have partially cleared and this has
allowed them to recover and return to a more unstable state after
the morning round of rain and thunderstorms.  The most unstable air
exists across far southern MO where SBCAPE values have increased to
over 3000 J/kg, with much more modest SB and MLCAPE values across
the I-70 corridor, less than 1000.  An old outflow boundary also
exists across this CAPE gradient in far southern MO and combined
with another MCV approaching thru southwest MO, this will create the
conditions for what should be an outbreak of severe thunderstorms in
this area, and extend east toward sundown into the extreme lower
Ohio River Valley.  Temperatures range from the mid 70s in portions
of central and northeast MO to the upper 80s elsewhere.

We are still looking at severe convective initiation to get going
across southeast MO in earnest by 4pm with an exit out of our
forecast area by 8pm.  Primary initial threats will be large hail
and isolated tornadoes, evolving into a lessening tornado threat and
addition of damaging straight line wind threat with time.

Further north--including the STL metro area--it is much more
difficult with limited influence of the northeast MO MCV and likely
a too little too late influence for the southern one, and what does
develop will have to on ill defined boundaries on limited
instability.

Skies are then expected to clear this evening from west to east with
dry weather for much of tonight and into Friday.  Another night
of what is more typical summertime temps with lows from 65 to 70.
Temps will rebound on Friday thanks to decent sunshine and weak
westerly flow back into the 90 to 95 range.

TES

.LONG TERM...  (Friday Night through Next Thursday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Weak surface ridge will continue to slide east away from the area
on Friday night. A cold front over the central Plains will begin to
push east toward the forecast area overnight into early Saturday
morning. An MCS is forecast to form over parts of northeast Kansas
and southeast Nebraska and move southeast toward the area overnight.
The MCS is forecast to enter central Missouri sometime on early
Saturday morning and move southeast into east central and southeast
Missouri and southwestern Illinois through the morning on Saturday.
Ahead of the Saturday morning MCS, the environment will have CAPE
values on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg with steep mid level lapse
rates in the order of 6.5 to 7.5 C/km with a veering low level jet.
The primary threats with the MCS will be damaging winds and large
hail.

The cold front will slowly move through the area on Saturday
afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, the environment by
Saturday afternoon is forecast to have steep mid level lapse rates
in the order of 7.5 C/km to 8.5 C/km. Additionally, CAPE values will
be in the order of 1500-2500 J/kg with sufficient wind profiles that
will allow for multiple storm modes in the form of supercells and
bow segments along and ahead of the cold front on Saturday
afternoon. Finally, with PWAT values in the range of 1.5 to over 2
inches would suggest that there is potential for flash flooding
across the entire area. The hazards on Saturday afternoon and
evening will be damaging winds,large hail and a few tornadoes.

The cold front will clear the area by late Saturday night, but the
area will remain in northwest flow at both the surface and aloft. At
this point, Sunday looks dry as the periphery of upper level ridging
over the southwestern US moves northeast over the area. A short wave
over the lee of the rockies will eject east-southeast toward the
area. An MCS is possible over parts of central and southeast Kansas
that could impact parts of southeast Missouri and southwestern
Illinois on Monday night into early Tuesday morning. A ridge of high
pressure will build in from the Great Plains through from Wednesday.
 A weak short wave in the northwest flow will move southeast across
northeast Missouri and western and southwestern Illinois to provide
a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon and
evening.

Kelly

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 512 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

VFR conditions, outside of thunderstorms, are expected to prevail
at the TAF sites thru the valid period. The thunderstorm threat is
expected to push east of the STL metro sites by the beginning of
the valid period, with decreasing clouds later this evening and
dry weather thereafter. Otherwise, look for light winds tonight
and Friday.

TES

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous weather outlook, May 31, 3:39 PM CDT, 2 hours before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
339 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-011200-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
339 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Numerous severe storms are possible through around 8 pm this
evening across southeast Missouri and far southern Illinois. The
main threats will be hail bigger than golf balls and isolated
tornadoes initially, changing to hail up to golf ball and
damaging winds straight line winds towards the end of the event.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

There is a chance for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and
evening. Some of the storms may be strong to severe with the main
threats being damaging winds and large hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed through early this
evening for southeast Missouri and far southern Illinois.

TES

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 31, 12:09 PM CDT, 5 hours 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1209 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSW FARMINGTON        37.77N 90.43W
05/31/2018  M51 MPH          ST. FRANCOIS       MO   PUBLIC

            MEASURED AT KFAM AWOS.

&&

Local storm report, May 31, 12:24 PM CDT, 5 hours 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1224 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ENE KELL              38.52N 88.82W
05/31/2018                   MARION             IL   PUBLIC

            POLE BARN BLOWN OVER.

&&

Local storm report, May 31, 12:26 PM CDT, 5 hours 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1226 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 AM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE TONTI             38.65N 88.97W
05/31/2018  M52 MPH          MARION             IL   AWOS

            MEASURED AT KSLO AWOS.

&&

Local storm report, May 31, 12:30 PM CDT, 5 hours 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1230 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SALEM                   38.63N 88.94W
05/31/2018                   MARION             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN AND TREE FALLEN ON HOUSE.

&&

Local storm report, May 31, 12:31 PM CDT, 5 hours 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1231 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SAINT PETER             38.87N 88.85W
05/31/2018                   FAYETTE            IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

Local storm report, May 31, 1:27 PM CDT, 4 hours 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
127 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W EDEN                38.12N 89.70W
05/31/2018                   RANDOLPH           IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES DOWN, ONE ON A HOUSE. FROM LOCAL MEDIA
            ON SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

AE

The office that day

Everything else NWS St. Louis, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 31, 5:48 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LSX	Cole, Moniteau, Osage	42 min
May 31, 7:27 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LSX	Crawford, Washington	48 min
May 31, 8:06 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LSX	Iron, Saint Francois, Washington	39 min
May 31, 8:19 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LSX	Madison	41 min
May 31, 6:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	LSX	Washington	45 min
May 31, 6:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	LSX	Iron, Reynolds	41 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2018 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.