Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2018

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 130, NWS Springfield, MO

May 31, 2018Oregon County, Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 31, 2018, 5:45 PM CDT for Oregon County, Missouri. It was in force for 24 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: May 31, 2018, 5:45 PM CDT (22:45 UTC)
Expired: May 31, 2018, 6:09 PM CDT
In force: 24 min
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Oregon County, MO

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 190 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
May 31, 5:45 PM CDT	HAIL 1	3 Ne Thayer, MO	QUARTER SIZE HAIL 5-31-18 17:45 3 MI NE OF THAYER ON HWY 19. VIA CONTACT.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 0 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 31, 1:57 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 10.8 hours before the alert went out and 222 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 133 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -299 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 880 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -216 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -160 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

265 
WUUS53 KSGF 312245
SVRSGF
MOC149-312330-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0130.180531T2245Z-180531T2330Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Springfield MO
545 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

The National Weather Service in Springfield has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Oregon County in south central Missouri...

* Until 630 PM CDT

* At 545 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Thayer,
  moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Thayer...                         Mammoth Spring...
  Mammoth Spring State Park...      Myrtle...
  Couch...                          

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe weather
including extremely large hail, destructive straight line winds and
tornadoes. Move quickly to a safe shelter such as an interior room, a
bathroom, closet or basement.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for south central
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3668 9148 3659 9112 3650 9113 3649 9124
      3650 9163
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 280DEG 20KT 3658 9150 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Hatch

2 follow-up statements

684 
WWUS53 KSGF 312252
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
552 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

MOC149-312330-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-180531T2330Z/
Oregon MO-
552 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON COUNTY...

At 552 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Thayer, moving
east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Thayer...                         Myrtle...
Couch...                          

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe weather
including extremely large hail, destructive straight line winds and
tornadoes. Move quickly to a safe shelter, such as an interior room,
a bathroom or closet or basement.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for south central
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3666 9145 3659 9112 3650 9113 3649 9124
      3650 9155
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 280DEG 20KT 3657 9145 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Hatch

848 
WWUS53 KSGF 312309
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
609 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

MOC149-312318-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0130.000000T0000Z-180531T2330Z/
Oregon MO-
609 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN OREGON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for south central
Missouri.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Springfield.

LAT...LON 3666 9145 3659 9112 3650 9113 3649 9124
      3650 9155
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 280DEG 20KT 3655 9133 

$$

Hatch

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 31, 1:32 PM CDT, 4 hours 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 31, 1:32 PM CDT, 4 hours 13 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
132 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

A strongly unstable airmass resided over the Missouri Ozarks
region this afternoon. A few boundaries were located across the
area. This boundaries in conjunction with an incoming wave from
Kansas will help to initiate strong to severe storms this
afternoon and evening primarily along and southeast of Interstate
44. All modes of severe weather are possible with this activity
with potential for significant hail up to tennis ball size. The
most intense storms will occur across south central missouri or
southeast of Interstate 44. Most of the storms will move
southeast of the area by 10pm.

Mid level heights rise on Friday with high temps soaring into the
lower 90s at most locations. Heat Indicies will approach the low
100s across western Missouri. No precipitation is expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Attention then turns to Saturday as a mid level shortwave moves
east across Nebraska and Iowa. A complex of storms looks to form
to our northwest Friday night and move southeast toward northern
Missouri by early Saturday morning. Will then need to monitor left
over boundaries as GFS is showing ML capes over 4000j/kg over the
eastern half of the area Saturday afternoon. If storms form they
would likely become severe, forecast trends will need to be
monitored for Saturday afternoon.

Northwest flow pattern will develop through next Tuesday with
generally dry weather until a passing wave brings rain chances
next Wednesday. High temps will remain in the 80s to around 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

Showers and storms will develop close to the SGF terminal by
early afternoon and move southeast and may also affect the BBG
terminal. JLN will likely stay just west of the storms. Winds will
remain out of the south to southwest. VFR conditions will remain
outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield

Hazardous weather outlook, May 31, 2:25 PM CDT, 3 hours 20 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
225 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011930-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
225 PM CDT Thu May 31 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop early this afternoon
across the Interstate 44 corridor and move southeast during the
afternoon and evening hours as a very unstable airmass over the
region interacts with a remnant outflow boundary.

Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts up to 70 mph and hail up to the
size of tennis balls will be the main threats. Isolated tornadoes
are possible along and south of Interstate 44 with the best chance
for a tornado across south central missouri. Cloud to ground
lightning will be likely in all thunderstorms. The overall highest
threat for severe thunderstorms will be southeast of Interstate
44 this afternoon and evening.

Due to the abundant moisture and potential redevelopment of
storms over the same area, localized flash flooding of low lying
areas will be possible, especially across south central missouri.

Heat index values will rise into the mid 90s over portions of
southwest Missouri this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected on Saturday, mainly
over the eastern Missouri Ozarks. A few strong to severe storms
will be possible.

Afternoon heat index values will reach near 100 degrees Friday and
Saturday afternoons especially along and west of the Interstate
49 corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed in the next three hours for
  locations along and south of Interstate 44.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 31, 4:55 PM CDT, 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
455 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             1 N FORSYTH             36.69N 93.12W
05/31/2018  M2.75 INCH       TANEY              MO   PUBLIC

            MEASURED BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. VIA MEDIA
            FACEBOOK.

&&

TEO

Local storm report, May 31, 5:03 PM CDT, 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
503 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             1 SE FORSYTH            36.67N 93.11W
05/31/2018  M1.75 INCH       TANEY              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AT FORSYTH MO 17;40 TILL
            17:45 WIND ESTIMATED AT 45 TO 50 KNOTS.

&&

TEO

Special weather statement, May 31, 5:25 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
525 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

MOZ082-097-098-312315-
Howell MO-Shannon MO-Texas MO-
525 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SHANNON...NORTHEASTERN
HOWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 525 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mountain View, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain View...                  Winona...
Birch Tree...                     Eminence...
Summersville...                   Montier...
Alley Spring...                   Teresita...
West Eminence...                  Arroll...
Pine Crest...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for south central
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3708 9122 3689 9122 3688 9141 3696 9178
      3716 9177 3723 9112 3720 9112 3720 9109
      3718 9109 3717 9104 3714 9104 3714 9102
      3709 9102
TIME...MOT...LOC 2225Z 268DEG 17KT 3708 9170

Hatch

Local storm report, May 31, 5:39 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
539 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             ROCKAWAY BEACH          36.70N 93.15W
05/31/2018  E2.50 INCH       TANEY              MO   PUBLIC

            VIA FACEBOOK. PUBLIC REPORTED FROM ROCKAWAY
            BEACH. SOME PIECES FELL AS BIG AS TENNIS
            BALLS. AROUND 5 PM. LASTED ABOUT 10-15 MIN.

&&

TEO

Local storm report, May 31, 5:41 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             NE BRANSON              36.65N 93.22W
05/31/2018  E2.50 INCH       TANEY              MO   PUBLIC

            ESTIMATED AS LARGE AS TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL
            FELL FOR ABOUT 5 MINUTES STARTING AROUND
            4:40 PM. VIA FACEBOOK PICTURE.

&&

TEO

Local storm report, May 31, 5:45 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
545 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             1 SSW WEST PLAINS       36.71N 91.86W
05/31/2018  E1.00 INCH       HOWELL             MO   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT.

&&

BURCHFIELD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 31, 3:28 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Barton, Jasper, McDonald, Newton, Vernon	77 min
May 31, 4:35 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Cedar, Dade, Lawrence	55 min
May 31, 5:04 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Greene, Hickory, Polk	56 min
May 31, 5:15 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Camden, Miller, Morgan	27 min
May 31, 5:51 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Dallas, Laclede, Webster	54 min
May 31, 7:06 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Pulaski	39 min
May 31, 2:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Christian	41 min
May 31, 2:51 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Newton	39 min
May 31, 3:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Christian	50 min
May 31, 3:28 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Stone	47 min
May 31, 3:31 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Shannon	44 min
May 31, 3:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Howell	46 min
May 31, 4:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Christian, Stone, Taney	52 min
May 31, 4:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Howell, Shannon, Texas	50 min
May 31, 4:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Howell	53 min
May 31, 4:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Ozark, Taney	48 min
May 31, 4:45 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Oregon, Shannon	30 min
May 31, 5:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Howell, Oregon	44 min
May 31, 5:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Ozark, Taney	33 min
May 31, 5:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Shannon	50 min
May 31, 5:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Shannon, Texas	42 min
May 31, 6:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Ozark, Taney	52 min
May 31, 6:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Wright	44 min
May 31, 6:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Shannon	41 min
May 31, 6:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Christian, Douglas, Taney	39 min
May 31, 6:24 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Dent	51 min
May 31, 6:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Douglas, Wright	48 min
May 31, 6:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dent, Shannon, Texas	43 min
May 31, 6:36 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Dent	24 min
May 31, 6:43 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SGF	Dent, Texas	32 min
May 31, 6:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Oregon	49 min
May 31, 6:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Douglas, Ozark, Taney	28 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2018 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.