River Flood Warning 38, NWS Raleigh, NC

390 
WGUS82 KRAH 131410
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
910 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Neuse River Near Clayton affecting Johnston County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC101-140208-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-181116T1200Z/
/CLYN7.2.ER.181113T0823Z.181114T1200Z.181116T0000Z.NO/
910 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River Near Clayton.
* At  8:15 AM Tuesday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.2 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage Thursday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet, There will be extensive flooding which will 
  close the Neuse River Greenway trail. 
* Impact...At 10.0 feet, The Neuse River Greenway at Covered Bridge 
  Road begins to flood.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks. Water 
  reaches the edge of the Neuse River Greenway trail.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Neuse River
 Clayton           9  10.9 Tue 08 AM  15.2  10.9   7.6   6.3   5.8


&&

LAT...LON 3572 7843 3558 7829 3554 7829 3556 7835
          3569 7849                   

$$

111 
WGUS82 KRAH 132051
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
351 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Neuse River Near Clayton affecting Johnston County

  Neuse River At Smithfield affecting Johnston County

  Neuse River Near Goldsboro affecting Wayne County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC101-140851-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-181116T1200Z/
/CLYN7.2.ER.181113T0823Z.181114T1200Z.181116T0000Z.NO/
351 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River Near Clayton.
* At  3:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 12.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.2 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage Thursday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Major flood begins.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet, There will be extensive flooding which will 
  close the Neuse River Greenway trail. 
* Impact...At 10.0 feet, The Neuse River Greenway at Covered Bridge 
  Road begins to flood.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks. Water 
  reaches the edge of the Neuse River Greenway trail.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Neuse River
 Clayton           9  12.7 Tue 03 PM  15.2  10.9   7.6   6.3   5.8


&&

LAT...LON 3572 7843 3558 7829 3554 7829 3556 7835
          3569 7849                   

$$

NCC101-140851-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-181117T1108Z/
/SMFN7.3.ER.181113T1339Z.181115T0000Z.181116T2308Z.NO/
351 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River At Smithfield.
* At  3:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 16.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 20.4 feet by 
  tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood stage Friday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Major Flood Stage. Flooding cuts off the 
  water treatment plants access to the reservoir.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. The Smithfield town 
  park and the Neuse riverwalk at the US70 bridge are flooded.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Flooding begins along the 
  Neuse riverwalk. Water nears the base of the holding tank at the 
  water treatment plant.


&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Neuse River
 Smithfield       15  16.5 Tue 03 PM  19.9  19.6  16.5  13.9  12.3


&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

NCC191-140851-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0044.181115T2217Z-000000T0000Z/
/GLDN7.2.ER.181115T2217Z.181118T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
351 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River Near Goldsboro.
* from Thursday afternoon until further notice, or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At  3:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 10.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by Thursday 
  afternoon and continue to rise to near 21.0 feet by Sunday morning.
  Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet, Strobe lights at the end of the runway at 
  Seymour Johnson Air Force base are flooded.
* Impact...At 22.5 feet, Evacuation of some homes in the Mar-Mac area 
  and possibly the Buckhorn Island subdivision may be necessary.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet, Flooding begins on Seymour Johnson Air Force 
  Base.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet, Riverview Trailer Park homes and Stevens Mill
  Road begin to flood.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Arrington Bridge Road and access roads around
  Seymour Johnson Air Force Base flood.
* Impact...At 19.5 feet, Ferry Bridge Road begins to flood.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Water overflows the banks 
  at the SR1915 bridge and upstream of the US117 bridge.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Neuse River
 Goldsboro        18  10.9 Tue 03 PM  14.2  16.8  19.4  20.6  21.0


&&

LAT...LON 3538 7807 3533 7793 3528 7791 3525 7795
          3530 7797 3534 7810         

$$

721 
WGUS82 KRAH 132241
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
541 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Neuse River Near Clayton affecting Johnston County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC101-141041-
/O.CON.KRAH.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-181116T1200Z/
/CLYN7.2.ER.181113T0823Z.181114T1200Z.181116T0000Z.NO/
541 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River Near Clayton.
* At  5:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 15.2 feet by 
  tomorrow morning. The river will fall below flood stage Thursday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Major flood begins.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet, There will be extensive flooding which will 
  close the Neuse River Greenway trail. 
* Impact...At 10.0 feet, The Neuse River Greenway at Covered Bridge 
  Road begins to flood.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks. Water 
  reaches the edge of the Neuse River Greenway trail.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Neuse River
 Clayton           9  13.1 Tue 05 PM  15.2  10.9   7.6   6.3   5.8


&&

LAT...LON 3572 7843 3558 7829 3554 7829 3556 7835
          3569 7849                   

$$

475 
WGUS82 KRAH 140318
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
1018 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Neuse River Near Clayton affecting Johnston County

  Neuse River At Smithfield affecting Johnston County

  Neuse River Near Goldsboro affecting Wayne County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC101-141518-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-181115T1540Z/
/CLYN7.2.ER.181113T0823Z.181114T0600Z.181115T0340Z.NO/
1018 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River Near Clayton.
* At  9:16 PM Tuesday the stage was 13.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 14.2 feet by 
  after midnight tomorrow. The river will fall below flood stage 
  tomorrow late evening.
* Impact...At 16.0 feet, Major flood begins.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet, There will be extensive flooding which will 
  close the Neuse River Greenway trail. 
* Impact...At 10.0 feet, The Neuse River Greenway at Covered Bridge 
  Road begins to flood.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks. Water 
  reaches the edge of the Neuse River Greenway trail.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Neuse River
 Clayton           9  13.7 Tue 09 PM   7.3   5.9   5.7   4.5      


&&

LAT...LON 3572 7843 3558 7829 3554 7829 3556 7835
          3569 7849                   

$$

NCC101-141518-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-181116T1338Z/
/SMFN7.3.ER.181113T1339Z.181115T0000Z.181116T0138Z.NO/
1018 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River At Smithfield.
* At  9:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 17.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 20.0 feet by 
  tomorrow evening. The river will fall below flood stage Thursday 
  evening.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Major Flood Stage. Flooding cuts off the 
  water treatment plants access to the reservoir.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. The Smithfield town 
  park and the Neuse riverwalk at the US70 bridge are flooded.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Flooding begins along the 
  Neuse riverwalk. Water nears the base of the holding tank at the 
  water treatment plant.


&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Neuse River
 Smithfield       15  17.5 Tue 09 PM  18.3  13.4  13.5  11.1      


&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

NCC191-141518-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0044.181116T0325Z-000000T0000Z/
/GLDN7.2.ER.181116T0325Z.181119T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1018 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River Near Goldsboro.
* from Thursday evening until further notice, or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At  9:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 11.5 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by Thursday before
  midnight and continue to rise to near 21.8 feet by Sunday evening. 
  Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet, Strobe lights at the end of the runway at 
  Seymour Johnson Air Force base are flooded.
* Impact...At 22.5 feet, Evacuation of some homes in the Mar-Mac area 
  and possibly the Buckhorn Island subdivision may be necessary.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet, Flooding begins on Seymour Johnson Air Force 
  Base.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet, Riverview Trailer Park homes and Stevens Mill
  Road begin to flood.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Arrington Bridge Road and access roads around
  Seymour Johnson Air Force Base flood.
* Impact...At 19.5 feet, Ferry Bridge Road begins to flood.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Water overflows the banks 
  at the SR1915 bridge and upstream of the US117 bridge.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


                 FLD  OBSERVED                FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION         STG  STG  DAY TIME    Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun

Neuse River
 Goldsboro        18  11.5 Tue 09 PM  16.2  19.0  21.0  21.6      


&&

LAT...LON 3538 7807 3533 7793 3528 7791 3525 7795
          3530 7797 3534 7810         

$$

080 
WGUS82 KRAH 141020
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
520 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Neuse River Near Clayton affecting Johnston County

  Neuse River At Smithfield affecting Johnston County

  Neuse River Near Goldsboro affecting Wayne County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC101-142220-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-181115T1825Z/
/CLYN7.2.ER.181113T0823Z.181114T0745Z.181115T0625Z.NO/
520 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River Near Clayton.
* At  4:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 14.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  early Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 13.0 feet, There will be extensive flooding which will 
  close the Neuse River Greenway trail. 
* Impact...At 10.0 feet, The Neuse River Greenway at Covered Bridge 
  Road begins to flood.


&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun  

Neuse River
  Clayton      9  14.0 Wed 04 AM    13.9   7.7   5.9   5.7   3.8


&&

LAT...LON 3572 7843 3558 7829 3554 7829 3556 7835
          3569 7849                   

$$

NCC101-142220-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0042.000000T0000Z-181116T1800Z/
/SMFN7.3.ER.181113T1339Z.181115T0000Z.181116T0600Z.NO/
520 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River At Smithfield.
* At  4:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 18.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Major flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 20.0 feet by this
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage early Friday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 20.0 feet, Major Flood Stage. Flooding cuts off the 
  water treatment plants access to the reservoir.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, Moderate flood stage. The Smithfield town 
  park and the Neuse riverwalk at the US70 bridge are flooded.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun  

Neuse River
  Smithfield  15  18.6 Wed 04 AM    19.1  18.6  14.3  14.2  11.5


&&

LAT...LON 3554 7829 3548 7834 3544 7829 3541 7833
          3547 7842 3556 7835         

$$

NCC191-142220-
/O.EXT.KRAH.FL.W.0044.181116T0400Z-000000T0000Z/
/GLDN7.2.ER.181116T0400Z.181119T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
520 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  the Neuse River Near Goldsboro.
* from Thursday evening until further notice, or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At  4:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 12.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage by Thursday 
  evening and continue to rise to near 21.7 feet by early Monday 
  morning. Additional rises are possible thereafter.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet, Riverview Trailer Park homes and Stevens Mill
  Road begin to flood.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, Minor flood stage. Water overflows the banks 
  at the SR 1915 bridge and upstream of the US 117 bridge.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.


             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun 

Neuse River
  Goldsboro   18  12.1 Wed 04 AM    12.4  16.1  19.0  20.8  21.5


&&

LAT...LON 3538 7807 3533 7793 3528 7791 3525 7795
          3530 7797 3534 7810         

$$

454 
WGUS82 KRAH 150038
FLSRAH


Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Raleigh, NC
738 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in North 
Carolina...

  Neuse River Near Clayton affecting Johnston County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message. If you encounter deep water while driving, do not 
attempt to drive through. Turn around, dont drown.

&&

NCC101-150108-
/O.CAN.KRAH.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-181115T1825Z/
/CLYN7.2.ER.181113T0823Z.181114T0745Z.181114T2255Z.NO/
738 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for the Neuse River Near Clayton.
* At  7:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 8.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at  5:55 PM Wednesday.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 5.8 feet by Friday 
  morning.
* Impact...At 9.0 feet, Minor overflow occurs on both banks. Water 
  reaches the edge of the Neuse River Greenway trail.

&&

The following are the latest observations and 7 AM forecast stages
for the next several days.

             FLD  OBSERVED                   FORECAST 7 AM
LOCATION     STG   STG  DAY TIME     Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon

Neuse River
  Clayton      9   8.2 Wed 07 PM     6.9   5.8   5.0   4.0   3.9

&&

LAT...LON 3572 7843 3558 7829 3554 7829 3556 7835
          3569 7849                   

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
110 AM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will move southwest to northeast
through the Southeast U.S. today, followed by the passage of a
strong cold front tonight. Cold high pressure will return Wednesday.
Another area of low pressure will approach central NC from the
southwest Thursday and Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 850 PM Monday...

...Minor flooding expected in the urban areas, along with small
streams and creeks in the Triad and Triangle areas through the
overnight...

Rainfall has been a widespread soaking today into this evening. Most
areas have now seen 1 to 2 inches as of 800 PM, with the heaviest
totals in the Piedmont. Greensboro reported 1.80 through 800 PM,
Raleigh 1.75, and Burlington 1.72. Stream gauges in the Greensboro
area have been rising especially around Buffalo Creek, Horsepin
Creek, and Ryan Creek were nearing flood stage. Urban and small
stream flooding is already occurring there. Same deal with Chapel
Hill with some streams reported near bankfull already. Rivers are
also now rising with the Haw River at Haw River and at Bynum
expected to reach minor flooding later tonight. These are areas
that typically flood in a flood plain and are near streams and creeks
in urban areas.

The flash flood guidance has been lowering and was now in the 1.5 to
2 inch range in 6 hours. Radar and satellite data indicate plenty of
rain to come, with several waves noted in the flow from Augusta GA
to Columbia SC to near Greensboro. These waves will continue aid in
the dynamic lift within the low to mid level SSW jet a top our
ongoing CAD event. We are lucky that the instability is NIL due to
the cool stable pool over all of our region, even in the SE Coastal
Plain. With the coastal front likely stalling very near the coast or
possibly just inland, the very heavy rain with convection is not
expected in our region, except for a possible brief elevated storm
or two around Fayetteville and Goldsboro may enhance hourly rates
later tonight.

Widespread flash flooding is not expected at this time due to the
stratiform rain event - up to 0.25 to 0.33 of an inch per hour in
the heavier frontal bands. With additional rains of 1 to locally 2
inches still to fall, there will still be lots of runoff, just not
as it would be in convective rains in excess of an inch or more per
hour. Models are also suggesting the rainfall will be heaviest
through 400 am in the NW before the banding of heavier rains shift
more east of the Triad into central and eastern parts of NC through
700 or 800 am.

With the CAD in place, lows will remain nearly steady in the upper
30s and 40s in the Piedmont. Temperatures in the Coastal Plain
should rise into the 50s to near 60 as the coastal front nears.
Temperatures will fall again on Tuesday in the SE as the front gets
pushes back offshore as the low pressure passes by.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 PM Monday...

Anomalously high PWs will hold over our area early Tue, before being
shunted to the SE and S late Tue into Tue night. The southern
portion of the mid level trough will close off over NE TX while the
northern portion remains progressive over SE Canada. While the mid
level flow will veer slightly in response, we'll still keep a steady
stream of mid and high level moisture over the state. In the low
levels, both the low level jet and the surface low that forms along
the E NC front will both track quickly up the Mid Atlantic and
Northeast coast early Tue, allowing the front to ease eastward
during the day. The surface high attempting to build in from the W
will be initially hindered by the higher terrain, such that we'll be
left with abundant low level moisture and weak low level flow that
will serve to keep clouds locked in for much of the day. While
forcing for ascent won't be as strong or deep as today, the presence
of the upper jet from OH NE through the Maritimes will keep at least
weak upper divergence over our area, necessitating a continuation of
high pops Tue, trending down NW to SE Tue night as the front settles
just to our SE. Expect chilly highs from the lower 50s to lower 60s.
Lows from the mid 30s to lower 40s with partial clearing possible in
the far NW late. -GIH

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 305 PM Monday...

Wednesday we will get a little break from the heavy precipitation as
a surface high pressure moves across the Ohio Valley and into the
mid-Atlantic states. Most of the area should remain dry, especially
north of US-64 but the GFS never does clear out precipitation across
the southern areas. That being said both the NAM and ECMWF do in
fact clear the state so will only carry slight chance across the
south. Cold air advection around the front of the high will bring
northerly flow and high temperatures only topping out in the mid
40s.

By Thursday morning both the GFS and the ECMWF bring the surface
high into northern New England and introduce precipitation across
central during the early morning hours. With the high not able to
filter enough cold air in from the north in time, temperatures in
the Triad and the VA border counties should stay slightly above
freezing and keep precipitation all liquid with the exception of a
few inconsequential sleet pellets. One thing to keep an eye on
however is that the NAM becomes a bit of an outlier by Thursday
morning in a key way as it is further south with the surface high
across the mid-Atlantic which keeps precipitation out of the area
till after 12z Thursday but as a consequence, filter colder air into
the Triad and NW Piedmont. Looking at forecast soundings, this would
present an opportunity for a couple hours of freezing rain in the
Triad. With antecedent temperatures well above freezing, it is
likely that even in this scenario, any ice accrual would be very
minimal but it is worth keeping an eye on over the next couple of
model cycles to see if it falls more in line with the GFS and the
ECMWF. For the forecast, have kept temperatures slightly above
freezing and all precipitation liquid at this time. Rain will
continue through the day on Thursday and into Thursday night before
clearing out before 12z on Friday. Rainfall amounts looks to be
slightly lower than the early week system and so have a storm total
QPF of between 1.5 and 2 inches at this time which should put us
somewhere between 4-5 inches for the week. Will need to keep an eye
on how much rain we get in our river basins to identify any
potential for river flooding later in the weekend as water works its
way downstream. Low temps should be in the mid 30s but if the
precipitation clears out quicker, the Triad could drop into the
lower 30s.

Clearing will commence on Friday with high pressure moving into the
area which will remain in place through the weekend. Highs in the
50s with lows in the mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 110 AM Tuesday...

Widespread adverse/poor aviation conditions will persist across
central NC through this morning with slight improvement anticipated
this afternoon into the evening hours. Wide rain will gradually
taper off through 10Z, with scattered showers expected across the
region after 10Z. Another batch of scattered-numerous showers will
lift newd across central NC this afternoon. Ceilings are expected to
remain IFR/LIFR through 14z, then lift mainly into the MVFR category
this afternoon. Ceilings may briefly lift into the VFR category late
this afternoon-evening before lowering back into the MVFR category.

Another round of rain and persistent low ceilings will occur
Wednesday through Thursday across central NC. A definitive
improvement in aviation conditions with VFR parameters anticipated
for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...Badgett
SHORT TERM...Hartfield
LONG TERM...Ellis
AVIATION...WSS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1123 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-140430-
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-
Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-
Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-
Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson-
1123 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Widespread rain along with periods of heavy rain will continue over
central North Carolina through tonight. Storm total rainfall amounts
by early Tuesday should range between 2 and 3 inches, with locally 4
inches in the eastern Piedmont. This rainfall will lead to plenty of
urban and small stream flooding, with the potential for isolated
flash flooding in urban areas around the Triangle and Greensboro. In
addition, some minor river flooding on the Haw, Neuse, and Tar Rivers
is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Another round of widespread rain, possibly heavy, is expected
late Wednesday into Thursday. Another 1 to 2 inches of rain is
expected. This may lead to additional flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1121 PM EST MON NOV 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ENE GREENSBORO        36.10N 79.78W
11/12/2018                   GUILFORD           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ROAD CLOSURE AT YANCEYVILLE ST AND E
            CORNWALLIS DR DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

JFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1154 PM EST MON NOV 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE CARRBORO           35.92N 79.07W
11/12/2018                   ORANGE             NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            MULTIPLE ROADS WERE REPORTED FLOODED IN
            CHAPEL HILL, INCLUDING UMSTEAD ROAD, ESTES
            DRIVE, CLELAND ROAD, AND OLD MASON FARM
            ROAD.

&&

BSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
101 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1118 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW MONTICELLO         36.17N 79.71W
11/12/2018                   GUILFORD           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ECKERSON ROAD WAS REPORTED FLOODED AT
            PRIVATE DRIVE.

&&

BSD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
208 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2018

NCZ042-078-089-130800-
Johnston NC-Sampson NC-Wayne NC-
208 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2018

...A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL AFFECT
WAYNE...NORTHEASTERN SAMPSON AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 300 AM EST...

At 206 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a heavy rain shower 13
miles north of Clinton, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this heavy shower.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Fremont, Walnut Creek, Pikeville, Newton Grove, Eureka,
Hobbton, Mar-Mac, Brogden and Nahunta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, and other light outdoor objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3534 7782 3520 7815 3519 7816 3518 7816
      3506 7843 3521 7855 3559 7792 3559 7782
      3553 7782 3543 7783 3541 7781 3539 7780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0706Z 236DEG 40KT 3518 7842

WSS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
232 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2018

NCZ078-130800-
Wayne NC-
232 AM EST TUE NOV 13 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY UNTIL
300 AM EST...

At 232 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mount Olive, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Heavy rain and minor flooding will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Goldsboro, Mount Olive, Walnut Creek, Seven Springs, Brogden, Cliffs
Of The Neuse State Park and Elroy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter in a nearby building or vehicle. Wind gusts as high as
40 mph are capable of knocking down tree limbs and blowing around
trash cans, and other light outdoor objects.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3536 7782 3532 7783 3518 7783 3516 7788
      3515 7789 3517 7793 3516 7797 3518 7799
      3519 7802 3519 7804 3518 7807 3518 7811
      3523 7815 3543 7783 3541 7781 3538 7780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0732Z 236DEG 39KT 3520 7802

WSS