Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Morristown, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
341 AM EST Tue Nov 6 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...Radar shows a line of convection
currently moving across the area. Deep moisture and good dynamics
for this time of year is in place. The 850MB jet is 50 to 60
KTs...dew point averaging in the mid 50s to mid 60s...and strong
shear. This will allow for the potential of strong to severe
storms through the rest of the night and into Tuesday morning.
The line of convection should exit the area late morning into
early afternoon with improving conditions expected during the
afternoon hours. High pressure builds in for late afternoon and
tonight for dry conditions and cooler temperatures.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Tuesday)...We will quickly move into
an active weather pattern for the first half of the extended. On
Wednesday...a short wave moves though. The main band of energy
will stay to our south but do expect to see scattered showers
spread across the area.  A better chance of showers is expected
late Thursday through Friday as the next low pressure system
moves through the area. High pressure builds in for a return to
dry conditions for the weekend. A weak frontal boundary will move
in around Monday. Little moisture or energy is expected with this
and current thinking is a slight chance of showers mainly over
northern areas and over higher elevations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             70  47  63  46 /  50  10  40  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  67  45  60  44 /  70  10  30  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       67  45  60  44 /  50  10  30  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              65  42  58  41 /  80  10  20  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Johnson-Southeast
     Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

     High Wind Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Sevier Smoky Mountains.

VA...None.
&&

MJB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Morristown TN
230 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-061930-
Cherokee-Clay-Scott TN-Campbell-Claiborne-Hancock-Hawkins-
Sullivan-Johnson-Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Hamblen-
Northwest Cocke-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Northwest Greene-
Southeast Greene-Washington TN-Unicoi-Northwest Carter-
Southeast Carter-Roane-Loudon-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
Blount Smoky Mountains-North Sevier-Sevier Smoky Mountains-
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-
Southeast Monroe-Marion-Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-East Polk-Lee-
Wise-Scott-Russell-Washington-
230 PM EST Mon Nov 5 2018 /130 PM CST Mon Nov 5 2018/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Southwest North
Carolina...East Tennessee and Southwest Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A vigorous storm system will approach the Tennessee Valley and
southern Appalachians tonight, with a cold front crossing the area
Tuesday morning. Ahead of this system tonight, southwest winds in
the mountains will be between 20 and 30 mph with gusts up to 50
mph. A line of showers and some thunderstorms will move through
the area late tonight and Tuesday morning near the cold front.
Some of these storms will be strong to severe producing damaging
winds and locally heavy rain. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled
out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Storms are expected to be ongoing through Tuesday morning.
Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested late Monday night and Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
335 AM EST TUE NOV 6 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CAGLE                   35.47N 85.46W
11/06/2018                   SEQUATCHIE         TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY
            399 AND HIGHWAY 111.

&&

ADIEGAN