Severe Thunderstorm Warning 242, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
254 PM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...Potential for severe weather and flooding through Monday...

.Near Term.../through Monday/...

Region will be in the warm sector, South of a warm front and East
of a cold front through this evening. A warm and moist, unstable
airmass will be place leading to a continued potential for strong
to severe storms, with tornadoes possible.

The cold front will reach the far Northwestern counties late Today,
then slowly push Southeast to near the GA/FL line Overnight,
then stall through the day Monday, as waves move Northeast along the
boundary. This front will continue to produce strong to severe
storms along and ahead of it. A secondary trough will push South
into SE GA Monday, which will keep activity going over SE GA as
well. Potential for localized heavy rainfall, especially late
Tonight into Monday as waves develop on the front and it stalls.

Flood watch has been issued for SE GA, as that area has received a
significant amount of rainfall recently, and training cells are
expected through at least Tonight. This area may need to be extended
depending on how much rain falls over NE FL this afternoon.

Temperatures will be well above normal Tonight, with readings near
to normal over SE GA Monday, and well above normal over NE FL.

&&

.Short Term.../Monday night through Wednesday/...

Cold front will move just to the South Monday night, with potential
for showers lingering over Southern counties into Tuesday morning.
High pressure will build to the West Tuesday, with skies clearing
from Northwest to Southeast through the day. Broad range in
temperatures expected from North to South Monday night, with
readings into the middle 40s over SE GA, and lows near 60 near
Ocala. Temperatures will recover a little on Tuesday with increasing
sunshine, but strength of cold advection will limit highs.

Strong high pressure will continue to build from the West Northwest
through Wednesday, providing mainly clear skies, and continued cold
advection. Lows Tuesday night are expected to dip into the mid to
upper 30s over SE GA and Suwannee valley of NE FL. Winds are
expected to stir Tuesday night, limiting frost potential. Highs will
be limited to the 50s across the region Wednesday.

&&

.Long Term.../Wednesday night through Sunday/...

Strong high pressure will become parked to the North for Wednesday
night into Thursday. A cold Northwest/North flow will prevail for
Wednesday night, with lows away from the coast dipping into the 30s.
A widespread frost/freeze will be expected inland. An increasingly
onshore flow is expected for Thursday producing some coastal clouds,
with temperatures beginning to moderate, but still below seasonal
averages.

The high will weaken and drift Northeast through Friday, as a low
gathers to the West. Low pressure will track East along the Gulf
coast Saturday, with the associated warm front extending East across
forecast area. At this point the best chance for precipitation
Saturday will be across SE GA. This low is then projected to track
across the forecast area Saturday night, dragging its cold front
through Sunday. Timing will be adjusted through the week, but at
this point looks like there is a potential for a fairly stormy
weekend. Near to slightly below normal readings will be expected for
Friday. For Saturday, the position of the warm front will determine
temperatures, with readings to the South above normal and near to
below to the North. At this point, drawing the expected front near
the GA/FL line. Temperatures expected to trend below normal for
Sunday.

&&

.Marine...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible through Monday, as a
cold front slowly moves Southeast across area waters. The front will
move South of the waters Monday night, with high pressure building
to the West on Tuesday. The high will then build to the Northwest
Wednesday, then North Thursday. High pressure will remain to the
North through Saturday, as a low approaches from the West. This low
will cross the region on Sunday.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Occasional breezy south-southwest will continue through Monday
morning ahead of a cold front. Showers and isolated to scattered
storms expected next 24 hours with best chances in the next 12 hours
north of a line from GNV-JAX-SSI. Front will temporarily stall on
Monday over southeast GA and northeast FL then push south of the
area Monday night. At TAF sites, VFR to MVFR cigs with chance of
showers and possible isolated t-storm expected through rest of the
afternoon with generally deteriorating conditions tonight as rounds
of showers and a few storms are expected. An area of low cigs in
IFR range may shift east to northeast across portions of northeast
FL and southeast GA during the overnight hours and continue to be
possible into Monday morning, with potential for LIFR cigs generally
from GNV-JAX-SSI from 06z to 15z but only low to medium confidence
in this occurring at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  70  47  61 /  70  70  30   0
SSI  68  70  51  64 /  70  90  50  10
JAX  70  77  52  66 /  50  90  50  10
SGJ  71  78  57  67 /  20  60  50  10
GNV  71  78  56  69 /  40  70  50  10
OCF  71  80  59  71 /  40  90  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-
     Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-
     Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-
     Ware-Wayne.

AM...None.
&&

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