Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
254 PM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...Potential for severe weather and flooding through Monday...

.Near Term.../through Monday/...

Region will be in the warm sector, South of a warm front and East
of a cold front through this evening. A warm and moist, unstable
airmass will be place leading to a continued potential for strong
to severe storms, with tornadoes possible.

The cold front will reach the far Northwestern counties late Today,
then slowly push Southeast to near the GA/FL line Overnight,
then stall through the day Monday, as waves move Northeast along the
boundary. This front will continue to produce strong to severe
storms along and ahead of it. A secondary trough will push South
into SE GA Monday, which will keep activity going over SE GA as
well. Potential for localized heavy rainfall, especially late
Tonight into Monday as waves develop on the front and it stalls.

Flood watch has been issued for SE GA, as that area has received a
significant amount of rainfall recently, and training cells are
expected through at least Tonight. This area may need to be extended
depending on how much rain falls over NE FL this afternoon.

Temperatures will be well above normal Tonight, with readings near
to normal over SE GA Monday, and well above normal over NE FL.

&&

.Short Term.../Monday night through Wednesday/...

Cold front will move just to the South Monday night, with potential
for showers lingering over Southern counties into Tuesday morning.
High pressure will build to the West Tuesday, with skies clearing
from Northwest to Southeast through the day. Broad range in
temperatures expected from North to South Monday night, with
readings into the middle 40s over SE GA, and lows near 60 near
Ocala. Temperatures will recover a little on Tuesday with increasing
sunshine, but strength of cold advection will limit highs.

Strong high pressure will continue to build from the West Northwest
through Wednesday, providing mainly clear skies, and continued cold
advection. Lows Tuesday night are expected to dip into the mid to
upper 30s over SE GA and Suwannee valley of NE FL. Winds are
expected to stir Tuesday night, limiting frost potential. Highs will
be limited to the 50s across the region Wednesday.

&&

.Long Term.../Wednesday night through Sunday/...

Strong high pressure will become parked to the North for Wednesday
night into Thursday. A cold Northwest/North flow will prevail for
Wednesday night, with lows away from the coast dipping into the 30s.
A widespread frost/freeze will be expected inland. An increasingly
onshore flow is expected for Thursday producing some coastal clouds,
with temperatures beginning to moderate, but still below seasonal
averages.

The high will weaken and drift Northeast through Friday, as a low
gathers to the West. Low pressure will track East along the Gulf
coast Saturday, with the associated warm front extending East across
forecast area. At this point the best chance for precipitation
Saturday will be across SE GA. This low is then projected to track
across the forecast area Saturday night, dragging its cold front
through Sunday. Timing will be adjusted through the week, but at
this point looks like there is a potential for a fairly stormy
weekend. Near to slightly below normal readings will be expected for
Friday. For Saturday, the position of the warm front will determine
temperatures, with readings to the South above normal and near to
below to the North. At this point, drawing the expected front near
the GA/FL line. Temperatures expected to trend below normal for
Sunday.

&&

.Marine...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible through Monday, as a
cold front slowly moves Southeast across area waters. The front will
move South of the waters Monday night, with high pressure building
to the West on Tuesday. The high will then build to the Northwest
Wednesday, then North Thursday. High pressure will remain to the
North through Saturday, as a low approaches from the West. This low
will cross the region on Sunday.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Occasional breezy south-southwest will continue through Monday
morning ahead of a cold front. Showers and isolated to scattered
storms expected next 24 hours with best chances in the next 12 hours
north of a line from GNV-JAX-SSI. Front will temporarily stall on
Monday over southeast GA and northeast FL then push south of the
area Monday night. At TAF sites, VFR to MVFR cigs with chance of
showers and possible isolated t-storm expected through rest of the
afternoon with generally deteriorating conditions tonight as rounds
of showers and a few storms are expected. An area of low cigs in
IFR range may shift east to northeast across portions of northeast
FL and southeast GA during the overnight hours and continue to be
possible into Monday morning, with potential for LIFR cigs generally
from GNV-JAX-SSI from 06z to 15z but only low to medium confidence
in this occurring at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  70  47  61 /  70  70  30   0
SSI  68  70  51  64 /  70  90  50  10
JAX  70  77  52  66 /  50  90  50  10
SGJ  71  78  57  67 /  20  60  50  10
GNV  71  78  56  69 /  40  70  50  10
OCF  71  80  59  71 /  40  90  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Appling-Atkinson-Bacon-
     Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-
     Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-
     Ware-Wayne.

AM...None.
&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
109 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     FLOOD            WAYCROSS                31.21N 82.36W
12/02/2018                   Ware               GA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS ROAD FLOODING ISSUES AROUND THE CITY LIMITS OF
            WAYCROSS. FLOODING NEARING THE DOORS OF SOME RESIDENCES.

1250 PM     LIGHTNING        WNW WAYCROSS            31.21N 82.36W
12/02/2018                   Ware               GA   911 CALL CENTER

            HOME DAMAGED DUE TO LIGHTNING STRIKE IN WAYCROSS OFF OF
            CARSWELL AVENUE TEBEAU STREET.

1250 PM     LIGHTNING        4 NNW WAYCROSS          31.26N 82.38W
12/02/2018                   Ware               GA   911 CALL CENTER

            HOME DAMAGED BY LIGHTNING STRIKE NEAR LUCILLE STREET IN
            NORTH WAYCROSS.

&&

ASHASHY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
140 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2018

FLZ020-022>024-GAZ150-152-153-162>165-021930-
Columbia FL-Baker FL-Hamilton FL-Inland Nassau FL-Ware GA-
Inland Glynn GA-Inland Camden GA-Clinch GA-Brantley GA-Echols GA-
Charlton GA-
140 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NASSAU...
NORTHWESTERN BAKER...NORTHEASTERN COLUMBIA...NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON...
NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN...SOUTHWESTERN GLYNN...SOUTHERN ECHOLS...SOUTHERN
BRANTLEY...SOUTHEASTERN WARE...SOUTHEASTERN CLINCH AND CHARLTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EST...

* At 139 PM EST, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Hickox to near Jasper. Movement was east at 40 mph. Radar
  indicated some rotation with several storms...tornadoes can occur
  rapidly with little or no advanced warning.

* Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and funnel clouds possible with these
  storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Folkston, Fargo, Stephen Foster State Park, Homeland, Hickox,
  Needmore, Race Pond, Winokur and Tarboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EST for southeastern
Georgia.

LAT...LON 3062 8309 3116 8203 3116 8169 3080 8190
      3047 8247
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 262DEG 35KT 3108 8198 3059 8297

WOLF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
146 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2018

GAZ132-149-021930-
Atkinson GA-Coffee GA-
146 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COFFEE AND
NORTHWESTERN ATKINSON COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EST...

* At 146 PM EST, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Willacoochee, moving east at 30
  mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph and funnel clouds possible with this
  storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Douglas and Willacoochee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3156 8289 3139 8282 3131 8305 3132 8306
      3135 8308 3135 8310 3137 8311 3139 8311
      3140 8314 3143 8314 3146 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 258DEG 27KT 3141 8308

ZIBURA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
159 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     FLOOD            11 N BAXLEY             31.92N 82.36W
12/02/2018                   Appling            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TWO ROADS HAVING FLOODING ACROSS THEM IN NORTHERN APPLING
            COUNTY OFF OF DOYLE ROAD.

&&

ASHASHY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
200 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2018

GAZ152>154-164-165-022000-
Inland Glynn GA-Inland Camden GA-Coastal Glynn GA-Brantley GA-
Charlton GA-
200 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN...WEST
CENTRAL GLYNN...SOUTHEASTERN BRANTLEY AND NORTHEASTERN CHARLTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EST...

* At 159 PM EST, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles southeast of Hickox, or 10
  miles south of Nahunta, moving northeast at 30 mph. Some rotation
  is being detected with this storm.

* Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Waverly, Waynesville and Thalmann.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EST for southeastern
Georgia.

LAT...LON 3097 8197 3108 8202 3131 8170 3114 8157
TIME...MOT...LOC 1859Z 243DEG 25KT 3105 8194

WOLF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
246 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2018

GAZ133-135-022000-
Appling GA-Jeff Davis GA-
246 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN APPLING AND
NORTHEASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EST...

* At 246 PM EST, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Graham, moving northeast at 40
  mph.

* Small hail and winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Plant Hatch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EST for southeastern
Georgia.

LAT...LON 3195 8241 3196 8240 3195 8239 3195 8237
      3194 8238 3194 8229 3193 8226 3184 8225
      3182 8248 3195 8252 3195 8249 3196 8248
      3196 8249 3197 8245
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 221DEG 33KT 3189 8245

ZIBURA