Flood Watch 2, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
847 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...Radar has been showing clusters of showers and
thunderstorms through the early morning across se GA. 12z
soundings continued to show some instability above a near-
surface inversion. Severe threat minimal until inversion is
erased, as shown on the 12z TAE sounding. Not much heating
Today, but increasing surface dewpoints to or just above 70
will help destabilize airmass yielding 1000-1500 J/Kg CAPE.
Surface winds will veer a little to SW, but strong speed
shear with low-level jet will still promote SRH values of
200-300...any local backing of wind will enhance this.
This environment supports scattered supercell storms, as
depicted on the HRRR model, with damaging winds and hail,
with a tornado threat as well. Corridor of greatest threat,
during the time window of 1pm thru 9pm, looks to be from
TAE across AMG/AYS to Jesup/BQK. HRRR suggests activity
will continue well into the night, working se toward the
JAX area late.

2-3 inches of rain have fallen across se GA...so will
have to monitor for locally heavy rain again Today and
Tonight across this area that could promote flooding. Storm
motion should be fairly quick, so flood threat primarily where
we see any training of storms over the same area.

Made some adjustments to hourly POP/Weather grids, but
no other changes at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...S to SW winds may be occasionally gusty
Today. VFR conditions are expected Today with potential
for MVFR conditions this evening. Showers and T-storms
expected to be mainly N and W of TAF sites Today...with
best chance of any showers by late afternoon near KSSI
and KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...A slow moving cold front is approaching the region
from the West Today and will then stall over area waters Tonight
through Monday. The cold front is expected to push Southeast of
the region Monday night and Tuesday morning as high pressure
builds to the West. The high will build to the Northwest
Wednesday, then to the North on Thursday.

Rip Currents: Low Risk through Tuesday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  64  70  47 /  80  80  70  20
SSI  76  66  73  51 /  50  70  80  50
JAX  82  70  77  53 /  40  50  80  50
SGJ  81  69  78  57 /  40  30  70  50
GNV  81  71  78  55 /  40  40  70  50
OCF  83  71  80  58 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Waters
     from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

Wolf/23/Shashy

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1244 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2018

GAZ150-162>164-021830-
Ware GA-Clinch GA-Echols GA-Charlton GA-
1244 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ECHOLS...CENTRAL WARE...
CENTRAL CLINCH AND NORTHWESTERN CHARLTON COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM EST...

* At 1243 PM EST, National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near
  Boggy Bay to near Jennings. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

* Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Waycross, Statenville, Braganza, Boggy Bay and Needham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3126 8236 3125 8234 3105 8218 3072 8264
      3061 8287 3062 8313
TIME...MOT...LOC 1743Z 233DEG 43KT 3110 8238 3058 8317

WOLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
109 PM EST SUN DEC 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     FLOOD            WAYCROSS                31.21N 82.36W
12/02/2018                   Ware               GA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS ROAD FLOODING ISSUES AROUND THE CITY LIMITS OF
            WAYCROSS. FLOODING NEARING THE DOORS OF SOME RESIDENCES.

1250 PM     LIGHTNING        WNW WAYCROSS            31.21N 82.36W
12/02/2018                   Ware               GA   911 CALL CENTER

            HOME DAMAGED DUE TO LIGHTNING STRIKE IN WAYCROSS OFF OF
            CARSWELL AVENUE TEBEAU STREET.

1250 PM     LIGHTNING        4 NNW WAYCROSS          31.26N 82.38W
12/02/2018                   Ware               GA   911 CALL CENTER

            HOME DAMAGED BY LIGHTNING STRIKE NEAR LUCILLE STREET IN
            NORTH WAYCROSS.

&&

ASHASHY