River Flood Warning 23, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
847 AM EST Sun Dec 2 2018

...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...Radar has been showing clusters of showers and
thunderstorms through the early morning across se GA. 12z
soundings continued to show some instability above a near-
surface inversion. Severe threat minimal until inversion is
erased, as shown on the 12z TAE sounding. Not much heating
Today, but increasing surface dewpoints to or just above 70
will help destabilize airmass yielding 1000-1500 J/Kg CAPE.
Surface winds will veer a little to SW, but strong speed
shear with low-level jet will still promote SRH values of
200-300...any local backing of wind will enhance this.
This environment supports scattered supercell storms, as
depicted on the HRRR model, with damaging winds and hail,
with a tornado threat as well. Corridor of greatest threat,
during the time window of 1pm thru 9pm, looks to be from
TAE across AMG/AYS to Jesup/BQK. HRRR suggests activity
will continue well into the night, working se toward the
JAX area late.

2-3 inches of rain have fallen across se GA...so will
have to monitor for locally heavy rain again Today and
Tonight across this area that could promote flooding. Storm
motion should be fairly quick, so flood threat primarily where
we see any training of storms over the same area.

Made some adjustments to hourly POP/Weather grids, but
no other changes at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...S to SW winds may be occasionally gusty
Today. VFR conditions are expected Today with potential
for MVFR conditions this evening. Showers and T-storms
expected to be mainly N and W of TAF sites Today...with
best chance of any showers by late afternoon near KSSI
and KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...A slow moving cold front is approaching the region
from the West Today and will then stall over area waters Tonight
through Monday. The cold front is expected to push Southeast of
the region Monday night and Tuesday morning as high pressure
builds to the West. The high will build to the Northwest
Wednesday, then to the North on Thursday.

Rip Currents: Low Risk through Tuesday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  64  70  47 /  80  80  70  20
SSI  76  66  73  51 /  50  70  80  50
JAX  82  70  77  53 /  40  50  80  50
SGJ  81  69  78  57 /  40  30  70  50
GNV  81  71  78  55 /  40  40  70  50
OCF  83  71  80  58 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Waters
     from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

Wolf/23/Shashy

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
608 AM EST SUN DEC 2 2018

GAZ134>136-150-151-021200-
Pierce GA-Ware GA-Bacon GA-Appling GA-Wayne GA-
608 AM EST SUN DEC 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PIERCE...NORTH
CENTRAL WARE...SOUTHERN BACON...NORTHWESTERN WAYNE AND SOUTHEASTERN
APPLING COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM EST...

* At 608 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
  near Alma, moving northeast at 55 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Jesup, Alma, Surrency, Odum, Doctortown and New Lacy.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3179 8199 3178 8197 3179 8196 3176 8194
      3175 8191 3173 8191 3171 8188 3167 8185
      3166 8183 3165 8182 3165 8181 3166 8181
      3164 8179 3134 8249 3149 8259 3182 8202
TIME...MOT...LOC 1108Z 240DEG 49KT 3147 8244

CORLESS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
638 AM EST SUN DEC 2 2018

GAZ149>152-163-021230-
Pierce GA-Ware GA-Atkinson GA-Clinch GA-Brantley GA-
638 AM EST SUN DEC 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PIERCE...SOUTHEASTERN ATKINSON...
WEST CENTRAL BRANTLEY...NORTHERN WARE AND NORTH CENTRAL CLINCH
COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM EST...

* At 638 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
  near Argyle, moving northeast at 45 mph.

* Winds in excess of 45 mph possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Waycross, Blackshear, Homerville, Patterson, Argyle, Boggy Bay,
  Pebble Hill, Jamestown, Bristol and Manor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These winds can down small tree limbs and branches, and blow around
unsecured small objects. Seek shelter in a safe building until the
storm passes.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. You can also share your report with NWS Jacksonville on
Facebook and Twitter.

&&

LAT...LON 3098 8272 3114 8283 3149 8220 3125 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 1138Z 240DEG 37KT 3113 8264

CORLESS

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