River Flood Warning 121, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
616 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Showers and thunderstorms are bringing a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR
conditions to most TAF sites this evening. The showers have ended
for GWO/GLH, but expect IFR/LIFR conditions later this evening as
low clouds develop. The showers will continue at JAN/HKS into the
evening hours, but the remaining sites will continue to see
MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions, as the showers and storms continue into
the overnight hours. Expect improving ceilings after 14-16Z for
sites along and west of I-55, but the low clouds may hang on for
the remaining sites for much of the period. /15/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and tomorrow. The northern portions of the line weakened
as it moved to the east. Early rain and clouds limited the risks.
Gusty winds continued as the line moved further east. Instability
was much better across the south, seems to be just on the edge of
the CWA. Cooler air was quickly moving in behind the boundary and
will likely keep any severe chances south of highway 98 for the
next couple hours.

Hi-res models show a few lows developing to the south and
moving along the line with very high rainfall amounts this evening
into early Friday. Considered expanding the watch to catch the metro
and the southwest, but doesn't look like much more rain will
redevelop in the western zones. Models continued to suggest the
boundary will slow up and possibly stall over the southeast.
There was some slowing but not sure the system will completely
stall over the area. Looks like waves of rain sometimes heavy will
continue through the evening. With models really hitting the
higher rainfall amounts significant was added for portions of the
southeast. Water was already covering several roads. Radar
estimates were under done and thinking is rainfall amounts will be
in the 5-10 inch range based on model estimates. There have been
a number of flood reports around the CWA today. Widespread steady
moderate rain with some periods of heavy rain will continue
through tonight with antecedent conditions great for mostly run-
off.

Guidance has struggled with temps today...good warm advection ahead
of the boundary with the strong gradient winds and good cold
advection behind the boundary. Will stick with the current trend,
where temps have fallen into the 50s and keep things steady through
the evening. None of the guidance seem to catch the cold advection

 Friday night through Monday: A rather wet pattern will continue
through the first half of next week. With the front temporarily
stalling just southeast of the area, we'll see a lull in the rain
Friday night. Heading through the weekend, broad scale lift north of
this front will become enhanced as an upper jet streak amplifies
from the Southern Plains through the Ohio Valley. This will bring
about a resurgence of mainly stratiform rain Saturday into Sunday.
Isolated embedded storms will be possible at times as limited
elevated instability is forecast. On Sunday, the upper trough will
begin to pivot gradually eastward, and the stalled front will return
northward across the region as a warm front.

As a mid level shortwave traverses the upper trough early next week,
a surface low will develop and track along the front, bringing it
eastward into the area on Monday. This will result is an uptick in
rain chances Sunday night into Monday, with greater potential for
storms as a more unstable airmass lifts northward into the area.
Because strong deep layer shear will be in place over the region, we
will need to watch this system for severe weather potential over the
next few days for eventual inclusion in the HWO/graphics.

Tuesday through next Thursday: Model solutions diverge somewhat
toward the end of the forecast period. The upper trough is expected
to hang up just northwest of the area early next week before finally
pushing farther southeast mid to late next week. The timing of this
evolution will have a bearing on what happens with the surface
front, with some solutions stalling it briefly just southeast of the
area and others being more progressive pushing the front past the
area. The stalling solution would result in cold rain sticking
around especially over the southern half of the area through
Wednesday, while the more progressive solution would result in rain
ending much sooner. With colder air filtering behind the front as
precipitation lingers, there is some potential for winter weather to
develop along the northern edge of the precip shield. With model
agreement still rather weak, confidence is too low to mention p-type
changes in the forecast this far out. However, this will be another
thing to keep an eye on during the coming week. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       53  62  42  52 /  95  17   9  58
Meridian      57  67  43  55 /  96  66  10  58
Vicksburg     48  59  40  51 /  47   5   7  55
Hattiesburg   62  69  49  55 /  96  76  21  67
Natchez       49  61  43  50 /  70   7  13  68
Greenville    45  56  34  48 /  19   8   6  29
Greenwood     49  58  36  52 /  62   5   7  31

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MSZ030-031-033-038-
     039-044>046-049>052-054>058-061>066-072>074.

LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

15

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
757 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>028-034-035-
040-041-047-290200-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Washington-Humphreys-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Warren-
757 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

MSZ029-030-032-036-037-042-043-048-053-059>061-290200-
Webster-Clay-Choctaw-Holmes-Attala-Yazoo-Madison MS-Hinds-
Claiborne-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-
757 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi,
and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight, localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in
low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding is also possible.
Additional rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

MSZ031-033-038-039-044-045-049-050-054-055-062-290200-
Lowndes-Oktibbeha-Winston-Noxubee-Leake-Neshoba-Rankin-Scott-
Copiah-Simpson-Lincoln-
757 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi, and
south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight, areas of flash flooding likely and some roads could be
flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially threatened
by high water. Minor river flooding is also possible. Total rain
amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected with locally higher amounts
possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

MSZ046-051-052-056>058-063-290200-
Kemper-Newton-Lauderdale-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Lawrence-
757 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and south central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight, widespread flash flooding is likely and significant
flooding is possible. Many roads could be flooded or closed and
some structural flooding and water rescues are likely. Moderate
to major river flooding will also be likely. Total rainfall
amounts ranging from 5 to 8 inches are expected with locally
higher amounts possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Wednesday.

MSZ064>066-072>074-290200-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
757 PM CST Thu Dec 27 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Friday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Tonight

Tonight, widespread flash flooding is likely and significant
flooding is possible. Many roads could be flooded or closed and
some structural flooding and water rescues are likely. Moderate
to major river flooding will also be likely. Total rainfall
amounts ranging from 5 to 8 inches are expected with locally
higher amounts possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. Some
thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail. A
tornado cannot be completely ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday night through Wednesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
812 PM CST THU DEC 27 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COLUMBIA                31.25N 89.83W
12/27/2018                   MARION             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AT LEAST A DOZEN MAJOR CITY STREETS ARE
            IMPASSABLE AND AT LEAST 10 BUSINESSES HAVE
            TAKEN ON WATER. THE RETENTION POND IN THE
            CENTER OF THE CITY IS OVERFLOWING. WATER IS
            IN SEVERAL HOMES IN LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR THE
            WEST SIDE OF TOWN.

&&

JC