Wind Advisory 16, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

062 
WWUS72 KGSP 170356
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1156 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

NCZ033-048>050-501-503-505-170500-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-180917T0400Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, Woodlawn, and Old Fort
1156 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...

Latest observations show that winds have dropped below criteria,
thus allowing for the wind advisory to expire. 

$$

SGL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
613 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Florence will cross the mountains tonight reaching
eastern Tennessee and continue north Monday and turn northeast into
Tuesday.  The threat of heavy rain continues for the region through
Monday before improving going into mid week. Expect a chance of
showers returning toward the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 530 PM EDT: The circulation center of Florence was moving
slowly to the north and northwest over the Upstate, with the
heavier rain shifting northward over the NW Piedmont. Rainfall
rates have tapered off across much of the Charlotte metro area
and along the Escarpment south of Old Fort, with precip becoming
light and more intermittent along and w of I-26. Think it is
time to drop more counties from the Flash Flood Watch with the
threat having dropped off, so group from Haywood and Transylvania,
across metro Greenville/Spartanburg, to Laurens and Union SC will
be cancelled. As for winds, the pressure gradient continues to
move outward from the remnant circulation and north of the area,
so we will let most of the Wind Advisory go on schedule. However,
we will extend the advisory until Midnight for the northern mtns and
adjacent foothill zones based on some of the high elevation wind
obs we continue to receive from Beech Mtn, indicating occasional
gusts upwards of 50 mph. As for the tornado threat, will not rule
out a small risk over the wrn Piedmont until we get to an hour or so
after sunset, what with plenty of shear/helicity still seen on the
mesoanalysis. Will keep isolated to scattered thunder mention there.

Overnight, the heavier rain bands will shift north and tornado
threat should abate as we lose instability. Low clouds and tropical
air mass in place will keep temps about 5 to 10 degrees above
normal overnight.

Monday, the remnants of Florence will exit north of forecast area
by daybreak, turning the flow around out of the SW. Mid-level dry
air will punch in across the Piedmont, but deeper moisture will
remain along the TN border. Breaks in the clouds is expected, and
lingering low-level moisture will support 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE
along and east of I-85 by mid-aftn. Showers will likely develop
in the mountains and along a convergence zone on the leading edge
of a dry slot during the aftn. The CAMs seem to keep most of the
Piedmont convection along our eastern edge of the forecast area
and to the east. Shear becomes weak and overall unidirectional. So
severe threat looks low. Highs will be rebound to a category or
two above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Sunday: A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for
portions of the area through Monday evening.

By Monday night, the remnants of Florence will become an open wave
aloft and will move up the Ohio River Valley. It will gradually push
eastward, bringing a surface trough and lingering wrap around
moisture across the forecast area Monday night through Tuesday. This
will result in isolated showers, especially across the higher
elevations, before gradually tapering off from south to north late
Tuesday. Additional rainfall amounts of a quarter of an inch or less
expected Monday night throught Tuesday night. A few gusty winds are
possible on Tuesday as low level flow shifts NW behind the trough
and could result in some downslope acceleration of gusts to 15-20
kts.

Drying trend begins Tuesday night as high pressure begins to build
into the region. Temperatures throughout the short term will remain
just above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Sunday: High pressure will continue to provide dry
weather Wednesday through early Thursday. Thursday afternoon through
Friday, the ridge of high pressure will shift east, allowing for
easterly flow to develop and filter in more moist air. Can't rule
out a few showers during the diurnal heating to end the work week.

As we progress into the weekend, weather will remain unsettled as a
surface boundary moves closer to the FA. Expect the potential for
showers and thunderstorms to expand across the entire area beginning
Friday afternoon and continuing through the weekend. Rainfall
amounts will be minimal. Temperatures will remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Winds continue to slowly decrease, as the
remnants of Florence weakens and drifts northward this aftn. Winds
will gradually veer to SE across the area by early evening, then
continue to veer to SW by early Monday. Still some gust potential
early in the period, but gusts should pretty much end by around
midnight. One more strong rainband is expected to set up and cross
KCLT between time of this issuance and 21z. This will allow winds to
shift to SE there. Otherwise, expect MVFR to LIFR cigs tonight, as
the center of Florence's circulation crosses the area. Rain will
taper off from south to north overnight thru Monday morning. As flow
turns around out of the SW, drier air aloft should help scatter out
and lift the lower clouds, again from south to north around midday
Monday. With breaks in the clouds, scattered tsra may develop across
the Piedmont, so will put PROB30 at KCLT for now.

Outlook: Expect flight conditions to improve Monday aftn and into
Tuesday, as Florence exit north of the area.

Confidence Table...

            22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z        16-18Z
KCLT       High  83%     High  83%     High  87%     High  86%
KGSP       High  94%     High  83%     Med   75%     Med   71%
KAVL       High  86%     High  89%     High  95%     Med   74%
KHKY       High  91%     High  91%     High  90%     Low   59%
KGMU       High  91%     High  80%     Med   72%     Med   71%
KAND       High  91%     Low   44%     Low   51%     High  89%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
     Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ033-048>050-
     501-503-505.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for SCZ008-009-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1047 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

NCZ052-064-SCZ003-006>008-012-013-171500-
Haywood-Transylvania-Greenville Mountains-Greater Greenville-
Spartanburg-Cherokee-Laurens-Union-
1047 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Tropical Depression Florence will bring significant impacts to the
region through today as it moves west through the western Carolinas
and northeast Georgia. Prepare now for flooding rainfall, landslides
along steep terrain in and near the mountains, and gusty winds that
could damage trees and power lines. Isolated, brief tornadoes are
possible today as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Rainfall from Tropical Depression Florence will linger into Monday.
Thus, the threat of flooding rainfall will continue as well as the
potential for landslides along steep terrain in and near the
mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ009-
014-171500-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-
Catawba-Rowan-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
York-Chester-
1047 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

Tropical Depression Florence will bring significant impacts to the
region through today as it moves west through the western Carolinas
and northeast Georgia. Prepare now for flooding rainfall, landslides
along steep terrain in and near the mountains, and gusty winds that
could damage trees and power lines. Isolated, brief tornadoes are
possible today as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Rainfall from Tropical Depression Florence will linger into Monday.
Thus, the threat of flooding rainfall will continue as well as the
potential for landslides along steep terrain in and near the
mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-058-059-062-063-SCZ001-002-004-005-
010-011-019-171500-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Swain-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Anderson-Abbeville-
Greenwood-
1047 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers, with gusty winds at times, are expected across the western
North Carolina mountains, the western Upstate and northeast Georgia
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
349 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W BUSICK              35.77N 82.20W
09/16/2018                   YANCEY             NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS ROADS CLOSED ACROSS THE COUNTY. THE BRIDGE
            ACROSS STILL FORK CREEK ON SOUTH TOE RIVER ROAD IS CLOSED
            CUTTING OFF ACCESS TO THE ALPINE VILLAGE COMMUNITY. ALSO,
            THE CANE RIVER IS FLOODING HIGHWAY 197.

&&

SWILKINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
403 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BLACK MOUNTAIN          35.61N 82.33W
09/16/2018                   BUNCOMBE           NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A MOBILE HOME PARK IS BEING EVACUATED DUE TO HIGH WATER
            AT THE INTERSECTION OF DAVIS DRIVE AND PORTMAN VILLA
            ROAD.

&&

SWILKINS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
410 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE MONROE             34.97N 80.52W
09/16/2018  M11.00 INCH      UNION              NC   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COOP OBSERVER REPORT.

&&

SWILKINS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
520 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

NCZ033-035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>504-SCZ009-162215-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Caldwell Mountains NC-Iredell NC-Cleveland NC-
Lincoln NC-Greater Burke NC-Avery NC-Gaston NC-Union NC-
Burke Mountains NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Mecklenburg NC-Cabarrus NC-
Alexander NC-Catawba NC-York SC-
520 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

...GUSTY TROPICAL RAIN BANDS WILL IMPACT
CATAWBA...ALEXANDER...LINCOLN...
GASTON...UNION...CABARRUS...DAVIE...IREDELL...CALDWELL...SOUTHEASTERN

AVERY...MECKLENBURG...ROWAN...NORTHEASTERN CLEVELAND AND CENTRAL
BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

At 517 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking gusty tropical rain bands
across the west Carolinas moving northwest at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gastonia, Uptown Charlotte, Huntersville, Kannapolis, Hickory,
Downtown Concord, Monroe, Salisbury, Statesville and Lenoir.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3519 8051 3519 8028 3481 8032
      3482 8078 3494 8078 3508 8091 3507 8091
      3496 8087 3518 8103 3543 8156 3612 8192
      3612 8155 3600 8133 3606 8046 3590 8037
      3583 8049 3574 8046 3571 8033 3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 147DEG 29KT 3544 8042

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
545 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 WSW HUNTERSVILLE      35.38N 80.92W
09/16/2018                   MECKLENBURG        NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE FELL ACROSS ROADWAY NEAR INTERSECTION OF APRIL
            MIST TRAIL AND BEATTIES FORD RD.

&&

WIMBERLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 N HUNTERSVILLE        35.45N 80.84W
09/16/2018                   MECKLENBURG        NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPT/RESCUE REPORTED TREE ON A STRUCTURE ON
            CALDWELL STATION RD.

&&

WIMBERLEY