Flash Flood Warning 58, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
255 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Florence will cross the mountains tonight reaching
eastern Tennessee and continue north Monday and turn northeast into
Tuesday.  The threat of heavy rain continues for the region through
Monday before improving going into mid week. Expect a chance of
showers returning toward the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT: The center of Florence's circulation is now
starting to drift north into Greenwood County, with heavy rain
persisting across the I-77 corridor. Ongoing flooding in the
Charlotte metro area looks to continue to worsen the rest of the
aftn, as radar mosaic shows the heavy rain band still over that
area. With Florence's northward drift, the band should start to lift
north of the metro area, so additional rainfall should be light once
we get into the evening hours. There is also flooding going on along
the eastern slopes of the NC mountains and adjacent foothills. The
Flash Flood Watch looks good for now. Probably will be able to pare
back some of the watch over the Upstate and possible west of the
French Broad Valley. But with rain still ongoing, will hold off for
now.

The other big concern has been the winds, but those have been
steadily decreasing, as Florence weakens. I think the 6 PM end
time for the Wind Advisory looks good.

As for the tornado threat, still seeing a tongue of SBCAPE of 1000+
J/kg from eastern SC just SE of Union County. This is expected to
pivot NW into the Charlotte metro area by early evening, so a
marginal risk for tornadoes is expected. Will keep isolated to
scattered thunder mention there.

Overnight, the heavier rain bands will shift north and tornado
threat should abate as we lose instability. Low clouds and tropical
air mass in place will keep temps about 5 to 10 degrees above normal
overnight.

Monday, the remnants of Florence will exit north of forecast area by
daybreak, turning the flow around out of the SW. Mid-level dry air
will punch in across the Piedmont, but deeper moisture will remain
along the TN border. Breaks in the clouds is expected, and lingering
low-level moisture will support 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE along and
east of I-85 by mid-aftn. Showers will likely develop in the
mountains and along a convergence zone on the leading edge of a dry
slot during the aftn. The CAMs seem to keep most of the Piedmont
convection along our eastern edge of the forecast area and to the
east. Shear becomes weak and overall unidirectional. So severe
threat looks low. Highs will be rebound to a category or two above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Sunday: A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for
portions of the area through Monday evening.

By Monday night, the remnants of Florence will become an open wave
aloft and will move up the Ohio River Valley. It will gradually push
eastward, bringing a surface trough and lingering wrap around
moisture across the forecast area Monday night through Tuesday. This
will result in isolated showers, especially across the higher
elevations, before gradually tapering off from south to north late
Tuesday. Additional rainfall amounts of a quarter of an inch or less
expected Monday night throught Tuesday night. A few gusty winds are
possible on Tuesday as low level flow shifts NW behind the trough
and could result in some downslope acceleration of gusts to 15-20
kts.

Drying trend begins Tuesday night as high pressure begins to build
into the region. Temperatures throughout the short term will remain
just above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Sunday: High pressure will continue to provide dry
weather Wednesday through early Thursday. Thursday afternoon through
Friday, the ridge of high pressure will shift east, allowing for
easterly flow to develop and filter in more moist air. Can't rule
out a few showers during the diurnal heating to end the work week.

As we progress into the weekend, weather will remain unsettled as a
surface boundary moves closer to the FA. Expect the potential for
showers and thunderstorms to expand across the entire area beginning
Friday afternoon and continuing through the weekend. Rainfall
amounts will be minimal. Temperatures will remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Winds continue to slowly decrease, as the
remnants of Florence weakens and drifts northward this aftn. Winds
will gradually veer to SE across the area by early evening, then
continue to veer to SW by early Monday. Still some gust potential
early in the period, but gusts should pretty much end by around
midnight. One more strong rainband is expected to set up and cross
KCLT between time of this issuance and 21z. This will allow winds to
shift to SE there. Otherwise, expect MVFR to LIFR cigs tonight, as
the center of Florence's circulation crosses the area. Rain will
taper off from south to north overnight thru Monday morning. As flow
turns around out of the SW, drier air aloft should help scatter out
and lift the lower clouds, again from south to north around midday
Monday. With breaks in the clouds, scattered tsra may develop across
the Piedmont, so will put PROB30 at KCLT for now.

Outlook: Expect flight conditions to improve Monday aftn and into
Tuesday, as Florence exit north of the area.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High  88%     High  88%     High  87%     High  83%
KGSP       High  88%     High  85%     Med   64%     Med   74%
KAVL       High  91%     High  90%     High  93%     High  80%
KHKY       High  90%     High  87%     High  87%     High  83%
KGMU       High  87%     High  83%     Med   71%     Med   72%
KAND       High  92%     Med   63%     Low   59%     Med   66%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-052-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for SCZ003-006>009-
     012>014.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for SCZ009-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1047 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

NCZ052-064-SCZ003-006>008-012-013-171500-
Haywood-Transylvania-Greenville Mountains-Greater Greenville-
Spartanburg-Cherokee-Laurens-Union-
1047 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Tropical Depression Florence will bring significant impacts to the
region through today as it moves west through the western Carolinas
and northeast Georgia. Prepare now for flooding rainfall, landslides
along steep terrain in and near the mountains, and gusty winds that
could damage trees and power lines. Isolated, brief tornadoes are
possible today as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Rainfall from Tropical Depression Florence will linger into Monday.
Thus, the threat of flooding rainfall will continue as well as the
potential for landslides along steep terrain in and near the
mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ009-
014-171500-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-
Catawba-Rowan-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
York-Chester-
1047 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

Tropical Depression Florence will bring significant impacts to the
region through today as it moves west through the western Carolinas
and northeast Georgia. Prepare now for flooding rainfall, landslides
along steep terrain in and near the mountains, and gusty winds that
could damage trees and power lines. Isolated, brief tornadoes are
possible today as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Rainfall from Tropical Depression Florence will linger into Monday.
Thus, the threat of flooding rainfall will continue as well as the
potential for landslides along steep terrain in and near the
mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-058-059-062-063-SCZ001-002-004-005-
010-011-019-171500-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Swain-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Anderson-Abbeville-
Greenwood-
1047 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers, with gusty winds at times, are expected across the western
North Carolina mountains, the western Upstate and northeast Georgia
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1149 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 AM     FLASH FLOOD      INDIAN TRAIL            35.07N 80.68W
09/16/2018                   UNION              NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO OF EXPANSIVE AREA OF UNIONVILLE INDIAN
            TRAIL ROAD UNDER WATER. MANY ROADS FLOODED ACROSS THE
            AREA.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
112 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 SW ASHFORD            35.83N 81.99W
09/16/2018                   MCDOWELL           NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE ON STRUCTURE ON OLD LINVILLE ROAD IN THE NORTH COVE
            COMMUNITY.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
121 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ESE GASTONIA          35.23N 81.11W
09/16/2018  M3.40 INCH       GASTON             NC   COCORAHS

            1.54 INCHES IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. 1.86 INCHES FOR THE 24
            HR PERIOD ENDING AT 7 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
124 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MONROE                  34.99N 80.54W
09/16/2018                   UNION              NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UNION COUNTY EOC REPORTS ALMOST 100 ROADS UNDERWATER AND
            CLOSED ACROSS THE COUNTY. AT LEAST TWO WATER RESCUES
            ONGOING. CREEKS RISING RAPIDLY OUT OF THEIR BANKS AND
            CUTTING OFF HOMES. SITUATION ESCALATING RAPIDLY.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
131 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CHARLOTTE               35.20N 80.83W
09/16/2018                   MECKLENBURG        NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE WATER RESCUES ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
            THE CITY WITH PEOPLE TRAPPED IN THEIR HOMES. AT LEAST 20
            ROADS CLOSED. SITUATION RAPIDLY ESCALATING.

&&

TPALMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
239 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ009-161900-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Gaston NC-Iredell NC-Union NC-Cleveland NC-
Lincoln NC-Mecklenburg NC-Cabarrus NC-Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
York SC-
239 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

...VERY GUSTY TROPICAL RAIN BANDS WILL IMPACT
CABARRUS...CATAWBA...SOUTHERN DAVIE...SOUTHERN
ALEXANDER...LINCOLN...IREDELL...MECKLENBURG... ROWAN...SOUTHEASTERN
CLEVELAND...GASTON...UNION AND NORTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 300
PM EDT...

At 237 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking several tropical rain
showers capable of blowing down trees across the eastern piedmont of
the Carolinas moving northwest at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gastonia, Rock Hill, Uptown Charlotte, Huntersville, Kannapolis,
Hickory, Downtown Concord, Monroe, Salisbury and Statesville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3519 8051 3516 8044 3519 8028
      3481 8032 3482 8080 3494 8078 3508 8091
      3507 8091 3484 8087 3518 8144 3584 8131
      3593 8037 3588 8042 3585 8039 3583 8049
      3574 8046 3571 8033 3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 141DEG 30KT 3507 8057

KRENTZ