Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

346 
WGUS72 KGSP 162344
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
744 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

NCC119-SCC091-162350-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0056.000000T0000Z-180916T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mecklenburg NC-York SC-
744 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG AND YORK
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 745 PM EDT...

The heavy rainbands from Florence have moved north of the area
and flooding no longer poses a significant concern.  Therefore,
the Flash Flood Warning will be allowed to expire.  Please be 
mindful of residual roadway ponding and low-lying flooding.

LAT...LON 3490 8088 3487 8088 3484 8087 3482 8090
      3482 8120 3516 8133 3515 8101 3510 8095
      3511 8093 3507 8090 3503 8090 3501 8091
      3499 8089 3492 8086

$$

JMP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1109 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Florence will continue to track into and through the
western Carolinas this weekend. This will result in a threat for
widespread flooding into Monday. Drying will occur across the
forecast area as Florence pulls away from the southeast early next
week with the rain chances returning towards the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 AM EDT: The center of T.D. Florence is starting to pick
up a little speed over Saluda County, SC, as it drifts northwestward
this morning. Winds and rainbands wrapping around the northside of
the circulation continue impact the bulk of our NC zones and eastern
Upstate. Areas to the west are seeing generally light to moderate
rain rates, and FFGs are running much higher than to the east. Also,
winds are still quite gusty, but are starting to show a downward
trend across all but the NC Piedmont and Northern Mountains. So I
will pare down the Wind Advisory to just the French Broad Valley and
east in NC, and Charlotte metro area. As for the Flash Flood Watch,
based on where the heavy rain is setting up, feel comfortable
dropping a tier of counties along the western side from Greenwood,
SC to Jackson, NC.

Otherwise, the strong low level flow becomes more easterly
increasing the orographic component and keeping moisture transport
high. Given the forecast track, the heaviest rainfall will be from
along the NC/SC border north across the Foothills and Piedmont to
along and near the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Additional rainfall of 3
to 6 inches will be possible across these areas today and tonight.
Rainfall drops off to the SW with one-half to one inch from the
Upper Savannah River Valley north into the SW NC Mountains. 1 to 3
inches may fall between these two areas.

Still monitoring the tropical tornado threat as we head into this
afternoon and early evening in the I-77 corridor. The threat will
likely develop if we can manage to get a little bit of instability
to rotate north and west from the eastern SC coast. The 0-1 km
helicity remains quite high with the strong low level jet in place.
SPC has this area into the Marginal risk category as a result.

Precip chances, and resulting threats, taper off from SW to NE
overnight. Highs today will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, while
lows tonight will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Sunday: A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for
portions of the area through Monday evening.

Model guidance remains in fairly good agreement with the placement
of what will be post-tropical Florence over Kentucky Monday morning,
as the system is progged to weaken and become an open 500 mb wave by
late Tuesday. As it propagates up towards the Ohio River Valley but
then pushes eastward with sfc trough, lingering wrap around moisture
will allow for isolated showers to persist across the FA through
Tuesday late afternoon/evening, gradually tapering off from south to
north. Additional rainfall amounts of a quarter of an inch or less
are possible. Overnight Tuesday, PoPs drop off below mentionable wx,
and thus the drying trend begins. Temperatures throughout the short
term will remain just above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday: Not much has changed in regards to the
extended forecast period from earlier today, as latest guidance
continues to depict the expansion of high pressure into the
Southeast on Wednesday. Expect this feature to linger through the
end of the week, as guidance depicts the ridge of high pressure
shifting from across the Carolinas and into the Atlantic. As a
result, south-southeasterly flow returns and so does the
infiltration of moisture into the area ahead of an approaching front
from the northwest. Thus, would not entirely rule out a few diurnal
showers as early as Thursday, mainly across the mountains. As the
boundary moves closer to the FA, expect the potential for showers
and thunderstorms to expand across the entire area beginning Friday
afternoon and continuing through the weekend. Rainfall amounts will
be minimal. Temperatures will remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Very gusty NE winds will continue across the
area this morning. IFR ceilings are expected by daybreak with IFR
vsby east and MVFR west where the heavier rainfall moves in. IFR
cigs continue through the day with IFR vsby for all but KAND where
rain will be lighter. Gusty NE winds continue as well, but speeds
drop off from west to east during the afternoon. Winds diminish even
more during the evening and turn ESE to SE as the the weakening
center of the Florence remnant moves north across the area.

Outlook: Expect intermittent MVFR or IFR flight restrictions with
periods of moderate to heavy rain early Monday as the remnants of
Florence move north of the western Carolinas. Flight conditions
improve later on Monday and into Tuesday.

Confidence Table...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       High  91%     High  95%     High  81%     High  87%
KGSP       High  91%     High  95%     Med   74%     Med   70%
KAVL       High  83%     High  95%     High  95%     High 100%
KHKY       High  90%     High  93%     High  93%     Med   77%
KGMU       High  90%     High  98%     High  80%     Med   70%
KAND       Med   75%     High  90%     Low   43%     Med   68%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-052-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for SCZ003-006>009-
     012>014.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for SCZ009-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH/SGL
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1047 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

NCZ052-064-SCZ003-006>008-012-013-171500-
Haywood-Transylvania-Greenville Mountains-Greater Greenville-
Spartanburg-Cherokee-Laurens-Union-
1047 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Tropical Depression Florence will bring significant impacts to the
region through today as it moves west through the western Carolinas
and northeast Georgia. Prepare now for flooding rainfall, landslides
along steep terrain in and near the mountains, and gusty winds that
could damage trees and power lines. Isolated, brief tornadoes are
possible today as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Rainfall from Tropical Depression Florence will linger into Monday.
Thus, the threat of flooding rainfall will continue as well as the
potential for landslides along steep terrain in and near the
mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ009-
014-171500-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-
Catawba-Rowan-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
York-Chester-
1047 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

Tropical Depression Florence will bring significant impacts to the
region through today as it moves west through the western Carolinas
and northeast Georgia. Prepare now for flooding rainfall, landslides
along steep terrain in and near the mountains, and gusty winds that
could damage trees and power lines. Isolated, brief tornadoes are
possible today as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Rainfall from Tropical Depression Florence will linger into Monday.
Thus, the threat of flooding rainfall will continue as well as the
potential for landslides along steep terrain in and near the
mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-058-059-062-063-SCZ001-002-004-005-
010-011-019-171500-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Swain-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Anderson-Abbeville-
Greenwood-
1047 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers, with gusty winds at times, are expected across the western
North Carolina mountains, the western Upstate and northeast Georgia
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1145 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N SALUDA              35.25N 82.35W
09/16/2018  M5.10 INCH       POLK               NC   COCORAHS

            5.1 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 11 AND A HALF HOURS IN THE
            MOUNTAINS OF POLK COUNTY.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1149 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 AM     FLASH FLOOD      INDIAN TRAIL            35.07N 80.68W
09/16/2018                   UNION              NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO OF EXPANSIVE AREA OF UNIONVILLE INDIAN
            TRAIL ROAD UNDER WATER. MANY ROADS FLOODED ACROSS THE
            AREA.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
112 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 4 SW ASHFORD            35.83N 81.99W
09/16/2018                   MCDOWELL           NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE ON STRUCTURE ON OLD LINVILLE ROAD IN THE NORTH COVE
            COMMUNITY.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
121 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ESE GASTONIA          35.23N 81.11W
09/16/2018  M3.40 INCH       GASTON             NC   COCORAHS

            1.54 INCHES IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. 1.86 INCHES FOR THE 24
            HR PERIOD ENDING AT 7 AM THIS MORNING.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
124 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MONROE                  34.99N 80.54W
09/16/2018                   UNION              NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UNION COUNTY EOC REPORTS ALMOST 100 ROADS UNDERWATER AND
            CLOSED ACROSS THE COUNTY. AT LEAST TWO WATER RESCUES
            ONGOING. CREEKS RISING RAPIDLY OUT OF THEIR BANKS AND
            CUTTING OFF HOMES. SITUATION ESCALATING RAPIDLY.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
131 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CHARLOTTE               35.20N 80.83W
09/16/2018                   MECKLENBURG        NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE WATER RESCUES ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
            THE CITY WITH PEOPLE TRAPPED IN THEIR HOMES. AT LEAST 20
            ROADS CLOSED. SITUATION RAPIDLY ESCALATING.

&&

TPALMER