Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

750 
WGUS72 KGSP 161842
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
242 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

NCC021-089-111-149-161-162115-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0053.000000T0000Z-180916T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
McDowell NC-Rutherford NC-Henderson NC-Polk NC-Buncombe NC-
242 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...NORTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD...EASTERN
HENDERSON...WESTERN POLK AND EASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES...

At 235 PM EDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
that heavy rain continued to fall over the southern North Carolina 
foothills and Blue Ridge Escarpment. Two to three inches of rain 
have fallen over much of this area since this morning. Flash 
flooding is developing. The Rocky Broad River at Bat Cave is 
expected to rise to flood stage this afternoon. This could mean 
downstream flooding will occur near the upper reaches of Lake Lure. 
Other streams in the area are also rising quickly and likely will 
continue to do so into tonight. Flood impacts are possible across 
the area.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Black Mountain, Swannanoa, Tryon, Lake Lure, Old Fort, Saluda, 
Chimney Rock Village, Chimney Rock State Park, Bat Cave and the Blue 
Ridge Parkway between Craggy and Little Switzerland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, as well as farmland, drainages, 
and other low-lying areas. Sudden increases in water levels and 
flows are expected, even in areas where rainfall has been light or 
nonexistent. Hikers, campers and other individuals outdoors must 
immediately seek high ground and avoid all streams.

When it is safe to do so, please report flood waters or landslides
flowing over roads or threatening property to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, by posting on
our Facebook page, or via Twitter using hashtag NWSGSP. Your message
should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred, including roadways, nearby cross streets, stream names and
other landmarks.

&&

LAT...LON 3568 8209 3543 8209 3520 8224 3519 8238
      3521 8239 3519 8243 3526 8243 3546 8237
      3566 8242 3577 8234 3575 8233 3573 8229
      3570 8226 3574 8219 3578 8216 3579 8217
      3582 8213

$$

08

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1109 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Florence will continue to track into and through the
western Carolinas this weekend. This will result in a threat for
widespread flooding into Monday. Drying will occur across the
forecast area as Florence pulls away from the southeast early next
week with the rain chances returning towards the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1045 AM EDT: The center of T.D. Florence is starting to pick
up a little speed over Saluda County, SC, as it drifts northwestward
this morning. Winds and rainbands wrapping around the northside of
the circulation continue impact the bulk of our NC zones and eastern
Upstate. Areas to the west are seeing generally light to moderate
rain rates, and FFGs are running much higher than to the east. Also,
winds are still quite gusty, but are starting to show a downward
trend across all but the NC Piedmont and Northern Mountains. So I
will pare down the Wind Advisory to just the French Broad Valley and
east in NC, and Charlotte metro area. As for the Flash Flood Watch,
based on where the heavy rain is setting up, feel comfortable
dropping a tier of counties along the western side from Greenwood,
SC to Jackson, NC.

Otherwise, the strong low level flow becomes more easterly
increasing the orographic component and keeping moisture transport
high. Given the forecast track, the heaviest rainfall will be from
along the NC/SC border north across the Foothills and Piedmont to
along and near the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Additional rainfall of 3
to 6 inches will be possible across these areas today and tonight.
Rainfall drops off to the SW with one-half to one inch from the
Upper Savannah River Valley north into the SW NC Mountains. 1 to 3
inches may fall between these two areas.

Still monitoring the tropical tornado threat as we head into this
afternoon and early evening in the I-77 corridor. The threat will
likely develop if we can manage to get a little bit of instability
to rotate north and west from the eastern SC coast. The 0-1 km
helicity remains quite high with the strong low level jet in place.
SPC has this area into the Marginal risk category as a result.

Precip chances, and resulting threats, taper off from SW to NE
overnight. Highs today will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal, while
lows tonight will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 AM EDT Sunday: A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for
portions of the area through Monday evening.

Model guidance remains in fairly good agreement with the placement
of what will be post-tropical Florence over Kentucky Monday morning,
as the system is progged to weaken and become an open 500 mb wave by
late Tuesday. As it propagates up towards the Ohio River Valley but
then pushes eastward with sfc trough, lingering wrap around moisture
will allow for isolated showers to persist across the FA through
Tuesday late afternoon/evening, gradually tapering off from south to
north. Additional rainfall amounts of a quarter of an inch or less
are possible. Overnight Tuesday, PoPs drop off below mentionable wx,
and thus the drying trend begins. Temperatures throughout the short
term will remain just above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday: Not much has changed in regards to the
extended forecast period from earlier today, as latest guidance
continues to depict the expansion of high pressure into the
Southeast on Wednesday. Expect this feature to linger through the
end of the week, as guidance depicts the ridge of high pressure
shifting from across the Carolinas and into the Atlantic. As a
result, south-southeasterly flow returns and so does the
infiltration of moisture into the area ahead of an approaching front
from the northwest. Thus, would not entirely rule out a few diurnal
showers as early as Thursday, mainly across the mountains. As the
boundary moves closer to the FA, expect the potential for showers
and thunderstorms to expand across the entire area beginning Friday
afternoon and continuing through the weekend. Rainfall amounts will
be minimal. Temperatures will remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Very gusty NE winds will continue across the
area this morning. IFR ceilings are expected by daybreak with IFR
vsby east and MVFR west where the heavier rainfall moves in. IFR
cigs continue through the day with IFR vsby for all but KAND where
rain will be lighter. Gusty NE winds continue as well, but speeds
drop off from west to east during the afternoon. Winds diminish even
more during the evening and turn ESE to SE as the the weakening
center of the Florence remnant moves north across the area.

Outlook: Expect intermittent MVFR or IFR flight restrictions with
periods of moderate to heavy rain early Monday as the remnants of
Florence move north of the western Carolinas. Flight conditions
improve later on Monday and into Tuesday.

Confidence Table...

            15-21Z        21-03Z        03-09Z        09-12Z
KCLT       High  91%     High  95%     High  81%     High  87%
KGSP       High  91%     High  95%     Med   74%     Med   70%
KAVL       High  83%     High  95%     High  95%     High 100%
KHKY       High  90%     High  93%     High  93%     Med   77%
KGMU       High  90%     High  98%     High  80%     Med   70%
KAND       Med   75%     High  90%     Low   43%     Med   68%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-052-053-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-501>510.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for SCZ003-006>009-
     012>014.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for SCZ009-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH/SGL
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...SGL
AVIATION...RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1047 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

NCZ052-064-SCZ003-006>008-012-013-171500-
Haywood-Transylvania-Greenville Mountains-Greater Greenville-
Spartanburg-Cherokee-Laurens-Union-
1047 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Tropical Depression Florence will bring significant impacts to the
region through today as it moves west through the western Carolinas
and northeast Georgia. Prepare now for flooding rainfall, landslides
along steep terrain in and near the mountains, and gusty winds that
could damage trees and power lines. Isolated, brief tornadoes are
possible today as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Rainfall from Tropical Depression Florence will linger into Monday.
Thus, the threat of flooding rainfall will continue as well as the
potential for landslides along steep terrain in and near the
mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ009-
014-171500-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-
Catawba-Rowan-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
York-Chester-
1047 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

Tropical Depression Florence will bring significant impacts to the
region through today as it moves west through the western Carolinas
and northeast Georgia. Prepare now for flooding rainfall, landslides
along steep terrain in and near the mountains, and gusty winds that
could damage trees and power lines. Isolated, brief tornadoes are
possible today as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Rainfall from Tropical Depression Florence will linger into Monday.
Thus, the threat of flooding rainfall will continue as well as the
potential for landslides along steep terrain in and near the
mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-058-059-062-063-SCZ001-002-004-005-
010-011-019-171500-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Swain-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Anderson-Abbeville-
Greenwood-
1047 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers, with gusty winds at times, are expected across the western
North Carolina mountains, the western Upstate and northeast Georgia
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
842 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 AM     FLASH FLOOD      INDIAN TRAIL            35.07N 80.68W
09/16/2018                   UNION              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYED REPORT OF A VEHICLE STUCK IN 6-8
            OF WATER ON FAITH CHURCH RD AND LAKE PARK.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
920 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WSW FAIRVIEW          35.12N 80.60W
09/16/2018                   UNION              NC   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            THE STREAMGAUGE AT GOOSE CREEK AT MILL GROVE ROAD 4 NE
            INDIAN TRAIL ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT 845AM, RISING
            ALMOST 6 FEET IN 4 HOURS. THE CREEK IS STILL RISING AND
            WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS ADDITIONAL RAIN FALLS.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1033 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSW BURNSVILLE        35.87N 82.32W
09/16/2018                   YANCEY             NC   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            THE STREAMGAUGE ON THE CANE RIVER NEAR PENSACOLA ROSE
            ABOVE THE FLOOD STAGE OF 8FT AT 1025AM, A RISE OF 7 FEET
            IN 3 HOURS. THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AS RAIN
            CONTINUES TO FALL.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1144 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SE CHARLOTTE          35.15N 80.76W
09/16/2018                   MECKLENBURG        NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO OF AT LEAST A FOOT OF WATER FROM A
            TRIBUTARY OF MCALPINE CREEK FLOWING RAPIDLY OVER THE ROAD
            AT THE ENTRACE OF THE SARDIS SWIM AND RAQUET CLUB.

&&

TPALMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1145 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 N SALUDA              35.25N 82.35W
09/16/2018  M5.10 INCH       POLK               NC   COCORAHS

            5.1 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 11 AND A HALF HOURS IN THE
            MOUNTAINS OF POLK COUNTY.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1149 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 AM     FLASH FLOOD      INDIAN TRAIL            35.07N 80.68W
09/16/2018                   UNION              NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO OF EXPANSIVE AREA OF UNIONVILLE INDIAN
            TRAIL ROAD UNDER WATER. MANY ROADS FLOODED ACROSS THE
            AREA.

&&

TPALMER