Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Dodge City, KS

549 
WWUS53 KDDC 130140
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
840 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

KSC047-097-151-185-130150-
/O.CAN.KDDC.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-180613T0215Z/
Kiowa KS-Stafford KS-Edwards KS-Pratt KS-
840 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN KIOWA...SOUTHERN
STAFFORD...SOUTHEASTERN EDWARDS AND NORTHERN PRATT COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3764 9906 3786 9908 3808 9883 3795 9857
      3762 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0139Z 262DEG 19KT 3785 9881 

$$

FINCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
700 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Areas of thunderstorms will be in the forecast tonight through mid
tomorrow morning. The first area of development looks to be along
a stalled frontal boundary roughly from Ashland to St. John. Once
these thunderstorms develop the outflow/cold pool could trigger
convection further west through the rest of the evening along the
boundary back westward to Dodge City. Another area of convection
in association with an upper level shortwave is expected to
develop along the Palmer divide in Colorado and then move south
and eastward into western Kansas after midnight tonight. These
thunderstorms could contain heavy rain as they evolve into a MCS
and move along the frontal boundary with decent enough 850 mb
winds.

Wednesday as the storm activity moves out clouds will hang around
through the early-mid afternoon. Depending on how long the clouds
hang around temperatures are expected to be cooler with highs
mainly in the upper 80s although a few low 90s can't be ruled out.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Hot temperatures will be the general theme as we go into the long
term forecast.

Another complex of storms is forecast to develop from Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. A shortwave trough in eastern
Colorado is forecast to develop convection and move into western
Kansas through the evening and overnight hours.

Winds will pick up out of the southwest through the day Thursday
with 850 mb temperatures warming to around 30 (C) for most
locations we should see highs get back into the upper 90s.

For Friday on it looks like the core of the warmer air will be
firmly in place through the central and southern plains driving
the jet stream well to the north. This should keep us mainly dry
with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s through the
weekend.

With the forecast position of the jet stream this should keep the
remnants of what is currently Hurricane Bud mainly to the west in
the Rockies through the weekend. However with a large upper level
low moving into the Pacific northwest by next Monday this may
drive some of the tropical moisture into southwest Kansas along
with a cool down in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Thunderstorms earlier this evening have developed along a surface
boundary located east of Dodge City and Liberal. These two
locations currently appear the have the better chance for a few
isolated thunderstorms over the next few hours just east of these
airports so have included a VCTS til 03z Wednesday. Elsewhere
thunderstorm probability looks to be very low. Prevailing winds
across western Kansas overnight will be from the southeast at
around 10 knots. BUFR soundings indicating VFR conditions
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  87  70  97 /  60  60  20   0
GCK  65  87  68  99 /  70  30  20   0
EHA  66  90  67  96 /  60  10  20  10
LBL  67  89  69  98 /  60  30  20   0
HYS  66  86  69  99 /  50  30  20  10
P28  71  87  71  97 /  60  60  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
514 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-131015-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
514 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018 /414 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------
Thunderstorm chances throughout Southwest Kansas
 increase this afternoon/evening, and may linger into Wednesday.
 Without strong upper level forcing, there will be several areas
 of potential storm initiation this afternoon. First being
 boundaries that set up over Western Kansas from convection this
 morning toward Central Kansas; second being along the warm front
 as it lifts northwest into southwestern Kansas (roughly east of
 Highway 183); and finally, where models have been most consistent
 in agreement is around a mid-level vorticity max that the NAM and
 GFS kicks out of Rockies and into Western Kansas late this
 afternoon. Storms that initially develop will have large hail and
 strong to severe wind concerns. If storms congeal into a
 possible convective system tonight, main concerns will be heavy
 rain/flooding, damaging wind and large hail.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------
Storms may linger into Wednesday morning.
 Another chance of storms will occur Wednesday night. Thursday
 through Sunday look to remain dry at this time. Monday, rain
 chances return.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Friday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 5 and 11 pm west of
highway 83 for storms coming in from Colorado, and east of 86 for
storms along boundaries. If storms form into a convective system,
storms will move through Southwest Kansas overnight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
734 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     HAIL             CENTERVIEW              37.82N 99.27W
06/12/2018  E1.25 INCH       EDWARDS            KS   STORM CHASER

            HALF DOLLAR.

0720 PM     HAIL             5 S RADIUM              38.10N 98.90W
06/12/2018  E1.00 INCH       STAFFORD           KS   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
741 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     HAIL             CENTERVIEW              37.82N 99.27W
06/12/2018  E1.25 INCH       EDWARDS            KS   STORM CHASER

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM
            CENTERVIEW. HALF DOLLAR.

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
800 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             3 ESE WINDHORST         37.78N 99.60W
06/12/2018  E1.00 INCH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE.

0735 PM     HAIL             2 ESE WINDHORST         37.78N 99.61W
06/12/2018  E0.88 INCH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
805 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     HAIL             GARFIELD                38.08N 99.24W
06/12/2018  E1.75 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE
            HAIL IN GARFIELD.

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
806 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             GARFIELD                38.08N 99.24W
06/12/2018  E1.75 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM GARFIELD.
            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE
            HAIL IN GARFIELD.

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
809 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HAIL             GARFIELD                38.08N 99.24W
06/12/2018  E2.00 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM GARFIELD.
            CORRECTS PREVIOUS HAIL REPORT FROM GARFIELD.
            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED HEN EGG SIZE HAIL
            IN GARFIELD.

&&

RML