Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Dodge City, KS

934 
WWUS53 KDDC 130100
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
800 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

KSC047-057-097-130109-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0187.000000T0000Z-180613T0100Z/
Ford KS-Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-
800 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL FORD...
NORTHWESTERN KIOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
800 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and gusty winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 3781 9970 3786 9945 3774 9942 3771 9945
      3769 9953 3767 9966
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 348DEG 8KT 3774 9960 

$$

FINCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
700 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Areas of thunderstorms will be in the forecast tonight through mid
tomorrow morning. The first area of development looks to be along
a stalled frontal boundary roughly from Ashland to St. John. Once
these thunderstorms develop the outflow/cold pool could trigger
convection further west through the rest of the evening along the
boundary back westward to Dodge City. Another area of convection
in association with an upper level shortwave is expected to
develop along the Palmer divide in Colorado and then move south
and eastward into western Kansas after midnight tonight. These
thunderstorms could contain heavy rain as they evolve into a MCS
and move along the frontal boundary with decent enough 850 mb
winds.

Wednesday as the storm activity moves out clouds will hang around
through the early-mid afternoon. Depending on how long the clouds
hang around temperatures are expected to be cooler with highs
mainly in the upper 80s although a few low 90s can't be ruled out.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Hot temperatures will be the general theme as we go into the long
term forecast.

Another complex of storms is forecast to develop from Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. A shortwave trough in eastern
Colorado is forecast to develop convection and move into western
Kansas through the evening and overnight hours.

Winds will pick up out of the southwest through the day Thursday
with 850 mb temperatures warming to around 30 (C) for most
locations we should see highs get back into the upper 90s.

For Friday on it looks like the core of the warmer air will be
firmly in place through the central and southern plains driving
the jet stream well to the north. This should keep us mainly dry
with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s through the
weekend.

With the forecast position of the jet stream this should keep the
remnants of what is currently Hurricane Bud mainly to the west in
the Rockies through the weekend. However with a large upper level
low moving into the Pacific northwest by next Monday this may
drive some of the tropical moisture into southwest Kansas along
with a cool down in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Thunderstorms earlier this evening have developed along a surface
boundary located east of Dodge City and Liberal. These two
locations currently appear the have the better chance for a few
isolated thunderstorms over the next few hours just east of these
airports so have included a VCTS til 03z Wednesday. Elsewhere
thunderstorm probability looks to be very low. Prevailing winds
across western Kansas overnight will be from the southeast at
around 10 knots. BUFR soundings indicating VFR conditions
overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  68  87  70  97 /  60  60  20   0
GCK  65  87  68  99 /  70  30  20   0
EHA  66  90  67  96 /  60  10  20  10
LBL  67  89  69  98 /  60  30  20   0
HYS  66  86  69  99 /  50  30  20  10
P28  71  87  71  97 /  60  60  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
514 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-131015-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
514 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018 /414 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------
Thunderstorm chances throughout Southwest Kansas
 increase this afternoon/evening, and may linger into Wednesday.
 Without strong upper level forcing, there will be several areas
 of potential storm initiation this afternoon. First being
 boundaries that set up over Western Kansas from convection this
 morning toward Central Kansas; second being along the warm front
 as it lifts northwest into southwestern Kansas (roughly east of
 Highway 183); and finally, where models have been most consistent
 in agreement is around a mid-level vorticity max that the NAM and
 GFS kicks out of Rockies and into Western Kansas late this
 afternoon. Storms that initially develop will have large hail and
 strong to severe wind concerns. If storms congeal into a
 possible convective system tonight, main concerns will be heavy
 rain/flooding, damaging wind and large hail.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------
Storms may linger into Wednesday morning.
 Another chance of storms will occur Wednesday night. Thursday
 through Sunday look to remain dry at this time. Monday, rain
 chances return.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Friday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 5 and 11 pm west of
highway 83 for storms coming in from Colorado, and east of 86 for
storms along boundaries. If storms form into a convective system,
storms will move through Southwest Kansas overnight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
501 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

KSZ089-122245-
Comanche KS-
501 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 501 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Buttermilk, moving south at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Comanche County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 9954 3705 9933 3700 9934 3700 9954
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 002DEG 7KT 3702 9949

RBURG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
655 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     HAIL             11 N BUFFALO            37.00N 99.63W
06/12/2018  E1.25 INCH       CLARK              KS   PUBLIC

0635 PM     HAIL             3 WSW KINSLEY           37.91N 99.47W
06/12/2018  E1.00 INCH       EDWARDS            KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            QUARTERS HALFWAY BETWEEN OFFERLE AND
            KINSLEY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
702 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             1 SSE KINSLEY           37.91N 99.41W
06/12/2018  E1.00 INCH       EDWARDS            KS   STORM CHASER

            QUARTER SIZE.

&&

RML

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
710 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     HAIL             MULLINVILLE             37.59N 99.47W
06/12/2018  E1.50 INCH       KIOWA              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PING PONG SIZE.

0645 PM     HAIL             7 NNW RADIUM            38.26N 98.96W
06/12/2018  E1.25 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

            HALF DOLLAR SIZE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
714 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0644 PM     HAIL             1 N BUCKLIN             37.57N 99.63W
06/12/2018  E2.00 INCH       FORD               KS   PUBLIC

            2 INCH HAIL 1.5 MILES NORTH OF BUCKLIN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
725 PM CDT TUE JUN 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0721 PM     HAIL             1 W GREENSBURG          37.61N 99.30W
06/12/2018  E1.00 INCH       KIOWA              KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            QUARTERS AT HOSPITAL IN GREENSBURG.

0715 PM     HAIL             GREENSBURG              37.61N 99.29W
06/12/2018  E1.00 INCH       KIOWA              KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            QUARTERS IN GREENSBURG.

0714 PM     HAIL             4 E MULLINVILLE         37.59N 99.39W
06/12/2018  E1.75 INCH       KIOWA              KS   PUBLIC

            GOLF BALL SIZE 3-4 MILES EAST OF
            MULLENVILLE.

&&