Flash Flood Watch 5, NWS La Crosse, WI

Allamakee County, IA, Chickasaw County, IA, Clayton County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Floyd County, IA, Howard County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Winneshiek County, IA, Dodge County, MN, Fillmore County, MN, Houston County, MN, Mower County, MN, Olmsted County, MN, Wabasha County, MN, Winona County, MN, Adams County, WI, Buffalo County, WI, Clark County, WI, Crawford County, WI, Grant County, WI, Jackson County, WI, Juneau County, WI, La Crosse County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Richland County, WI, Taylor County, WI, Trempealeau County, WI, Vernon County, WI

391 
WGUS63 KARX 041435
FFAARX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
935 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...More Heavy Rain Expected Today And Tonight...

.After a wet week last week, and now another 3 to 6 inches of rain over
the past 24 hours in parts of the area, the risk of flooding is 
elevated. Many area rivers are back on the rise and runoff occurs 
very quickly given the saturated ground.

Today rain will continue to fall mainly north of Interstate 90,
but expand back south late in the day, into the evening. Another
inch or two is possible in these areas as well.

This is a potentially dangerous situation, especially in those 
locations that are currently, or have recently had heavy rain and 
flooding. The time to prepare is now. Do not wait until heavy rain
or flooding is occurring.

IAZ008>010-018-019-029-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041-042245-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0005.180904T2100Z-180905T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Wabasha-Dodge-
Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-
Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-
Including the cities of Osage, Cresco, Decorah, Charles City, 
New Hampton, Oelwein, Wabasha, Dodge Center, Rochester, Winona, 
Austin, Preston, Caledonia, Medford, Neillsville, Alma, Arcadia, 
Whitehall, Black River Falls, and La Crosse
935 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and Wisconsin, 
  including the following areas, in Iowa, Chickasaw, Fayette, 
  Floyd, Howard, Mitchell, and Winneshiek. In southeast 
  Minnesota, Dodge, Fillmore, Houston, Mower, Olmsted, Wabasha, 
  and Winona. In Wisconsin, Buffalo, Clark, Jackson, La Crosse, 
  Taylor, and Trempealeau. 

* From 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday morning

* Heavy rain with accumulations from 2 to 6 inches, locally 
  higher possible. Localized to widespread flooding is possible. 

* Prepare a plan of action now. Know where to go if water rises 
  in your area. NEVER cross a flooded road. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

IAZ011-030-WIZ042>044-053>055-061-042245-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0005.180905T0300Z-180905T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Allamakee-Clayton-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-
Grant-
Including the cities of Waukon, Elkader, Sparta, Tomah, Mauston, 
Friendship, Viroqua, Prairie Du Chien, Richland Center, 
and Platteville
935 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast Iowa and Wisconsin, including the 
  following areas, in northeast Iowa, Allamakee and Clayton. In 
  Wisconsin, Adams, Crawford, Grant, Juneau, Monroe, Richland, 
  and Vernon. 

* From this evening through Wednesday afternoon

* Significant heavy rain over the past week, along with an 
  expected 1 to 3 inches could result in additional flooding, 
  potentially life threatening. 

* Prepare a plan of action now. Know where to go if water rises 
  in your area. NEVER cross a flooded road. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Shea

734 
WGUS63 KARX 042000
FFAARX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
300 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...One More Night Of Heavy Rain...

.Another round of heavy rain is expected tonight, but this time it
may extend from south central Minnesota into north central
Wisconsin. In that area 3 to 5 inches of rain is possible tonight,
with locally higher amounts possible. High rainfall rates are also
expected, which could lead to urban flooding in cities. Area
rivers will also be on the rise and new flash flooding is
certainly possible.

In addition, storms could track later this evening over areas that
have been hard by rainfall the past 7 days, including parts of
northeast Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. Even rainfall amounts of
1 to 3 inches in that area could lead to more flooding or renewed
flooding, which could pose a further threat to life and property.

This is a potentially dangerous situation, especially in those 
locations that are currently, or have recently had heavy rain and 
flooding. The time to prepare is now. Do not wait until heavy rain
or flooding is occurring. If flooding becomes serious, do not
travel or drive anywhere, assuming your house is a safe place.

IAZ008>010-018-019-029-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041-050400-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0005.180904T2100Z-180905T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Wabasha-Dodge-
Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-
Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-
Including the cities of Osage, Cresco, Decorah, Charles City, 
New Hampton, Oelwein, Wabasha, Dodge Center, Rochester, Winona, 
Austin, Preston, Caledonia, Medford, Neillsville, Alma, Arcadia, 
Whitehall, Black River Falls, and La Crosse
300 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and Wisconsin, 
  including the following areas, in Iowa, Chickasaw, Fayette, 
  Floyd, Howard, Mitchell, and Winneshiek. In southeast 
  Minnesota, Dodge, Fillmore, Houston, Mower, Olmsted, Wabasha, 
  and Winona. In Wisconsin, Buffalo, Clark, Jackson, La Crosse, 
  Taylor, and Trempealeau. 

* Through Wednesday morning

* Heavy rain with accumulations from 2 to 6 inches, locally 
  higher possible. Localized to widespread flooding is possible. 

* Prepare a plan of action now. Know where to go if water rises 
  in your area. NEVER cross a flooded road. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

IAZ011-030-WIZ042>044-053>055-061-050400-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0005.180905T0300Z-180905T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Allamakee-Clayton-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-
Grant-
Including the cities of Waukon, Elkader, Sparta, Tomah, Mauston, 
Friendship, Viroqua, Prairie Du Chien, Richland Center, 
and Platteville
300 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast Iowa and Wisconsin, including the 
  following areas, in northeast Iowa, Allamakee and Clayton. In 
  Wisconsin, Adams, Crawford, Grant, Juneau, Monroe, Richland, 
  and Vernon. 

* From 10 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday afternoon

* Significant heavy rain over the past week, along with an 
  expected 1 to 3 inches could result in additional flooding, 
  potentially life threatening. 

* Prepare a plan of action now. Know where to go if water rises 
  in your area. NEVER cross a flooded road. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Shea

575 
WGUS63 KARX 050926
FFAARX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
426 AM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

...Heavy Rain Continues Early This Morning...

.Rain continues to fall across the area early this morning, 
generally moderate in intensity. The bulk of the rain will fall 
along and south of Interstate 90 through early morning, with 
additional amounts upwards of 1 inch possible. Flooding is already
occurring across parts of the area with high water on most rivers
and streams, with some also in flood at this time. 

This is a potentially dangerous situation, especially in those
locations that are currently, or have recently had heavy rain and
flooding. If flooding becomes serious, do not travel or drive 
anywhere, assuming your house is a safe place.

IAZ008>010-018-019-029-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041-051200-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-180905T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Wabasha-Dodge-
Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-
Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-
Including the cities of Osage, Cresco, Decorah, Charles City, 
New Hampton, Oelwein, Wabasha, Dodge Center, Rochester, Winona, 
Austin, Preston, Caledonia, Medford, Neillsville, Alma, Arcadia, 
Whitehall, Black River Falls, and La Crosse
426 AM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and Wisconsin, 
  including the following areas, in Iowa, Chickasaw, Fayette, 
  Floyd, Howard, Mitchell, and Winneshiek. In southeast 
  Minnesota, Dodge, Fillmore, Houston, Mower, Olmsted, Wabasha, 
  and Winona. In Wisconsin, Buffalo, Clark, Jackson, La Crosse, 
  Taylor, and Trempealeau. 

* Until 7 AM CDT this morning

* Rain continues early this morning, with pockets of moderate
  rainfall. Localized to widespread flooding remain possible. 

* Know where to go if water rises in your area. NEVER cross a 
  flooded road. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

IAZ011-030-WIZ042>044-053>055-061-051730-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-180905T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Allamakee-Clayton-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-
Grant-
Including the cities of Waukon, Elkader, Sparta, Tomah, Mauston, 
Friendship, Viroqua, Prairie Du Chien, Richland Center, 
and Platteville
426 AM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast Iowa and Wisconsin, including the 
  following areas, in northeast Iowa, Allamakee and Clayton. In 
  Wisconsin, Adams, Crawford, Grant, Juneau, Monroe, Richland, 
  and Vernon. 

* Until 1 PM CDT this afternoon

* Moderate rain continues this morning. With grounds saturated 
  from recent rain, flooding continues across parts of the area, 
  with the threat for new flooding. 

* Know where to go if water rises in your area. NEVER cross a 
  flooded road. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

695 
WGUS63 KARX 051158
FFAARX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
658 AM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

...Moderate Rain For Some This Morning, Exiting For Others...

.Rain continues to fall across the area this morning, with pockets
of moderate rain mostly across parts of northeast Iowa and 
southwest into central Wisconsin. Additional rain from 1/2 to as 
much as 1 inch is possible in those locations. River and street 
flooding is occurring across portions of this area and the Flash 
Flood Watch will continue.

North of there, only light precipitation is expected and this rain
will shift south by late morning. Urban and street flooding has
improved in these areas, although many rivers and streams are
running high or are in flood. However, the threat for flash 
flooding has ended. The Flash Flood Watch will be allowed to 
expire. 

If traveling this morning, anticipate high water and potentially
closed roads near rivers and streams. Be prepared for detours and
slow travel. NEVER cross a flooded roadway. 

IAZ008>010-018-019-029-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041-051300-
/O.EXP.KARX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-180905T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Wabasha-Dodge-
Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-
Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-
Including the cities of Osage, Cresco, Decorah, Charles City, 
New Hampton, Oelwein, Wabasha, Dodge Center, Rochester, Winona, 
Austin, Preston, Caledonia, Medford, Neillsville, Alma, Arcadia, 
Whitehall, Black River Falls, and La Crosse
658 AM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of Iowa, southeast Minnesota,
and Wisconsin will expire at 7 AM CDT this morning. 

The threat for heavy rains have ended. Some light rain can still 
expected this morning, but further flash flooding is not expected.


$$

IAZ011-030-WIZ042>044-053>055-061-051800-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-180905T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Allamakee-Clayton-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-
Grant-
Including the cities of Waukon, Elkader, Sparta, Tomah, Mauston, 
Friendship, Viroqua, Prairie Du Chien, Richland Center, 
and Platteville
658 AM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast Iowa and Wisconsin, including the 
  following areas, in northeast Iowa, Allamakee and Clayton. In 
  Wisconsin, Adams, Crawford, Grant, Juneau, Monroe, Richland, 
  and Vernon. 

* Until 1 PM CDT this afternoon

* Moderate rain continues this morning. With grounds saturated 
  from recent rain, flooding continues across parts of the area, 
  with the threat for new flooding. 

* Know where to go if water rises in your area. NEVER cross a 
  flooded road. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

384 
WGUS63 KARX 051421
FFAARX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
921 AM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

...Light to Moderate Rain to Continue This Morning...

.Light to moderate rain to continue across the area this morning.
Additional rainfall amounts over the watched area are expected to
be up to a half of an inch. River flooding is occurring across 
portions of the area and the Flash Flood Watch will continue.

If traveling this morning, anticipate high water and potentially 
closed roads near rivers and streams. Be prepared for detours and 
slow travel. Never cross a flooded roadway.

IAZ011-030-WIZ042>044-053>055-061-051800-
/O.CON.KARX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-180905T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Allamakee-Clayton-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-
Grant-
Including the cities of Waukon, Elkader, Sparta, Tomah, Mauston, 
Friendship, Viroqua, Prairie Du Chien, Richland Center, 
and Platteville
921 AM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast Iowa and Wisconsin, including the 
  following areas, in northeast Iowa, Allamakee and Clayton. In 
  Wisconsin, Adams, Crawford, Grant, Juneau, Monroe, Richland, 
  and Vernon. 

* Until 1 PM CDT this afternoon

* Light to moderate rain continues this morning. With the ground
  saturated from recent rain, flooding continues across parts of 
  the area, with the threat for new flooding. 

* Know where to go if water rises in your area. Never cross a 
  flooded road. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

DTJ

606 
WGUS63 KARX 051748
FFAARX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1248 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

...Heavy Rain Potential Has Ended Across The Area...

.The threat for heavy rain has ended and moved south of the area.
Therefore...the Flash Flood Watch will be allowed to expire at 1
pm. However...due to the recent rain...flooding is occurring on 
area rivers...streams and creeks and causing road closures and
potentially water over roadways.

IAZ011-030-WIZ042>044-053>055-061-051900-
/O.EXP.KARX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-180905T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Allamakee-Clayton-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-
Grant-
Including the cities of Waukon, Elkader, Sparta, Tomah, Mauston, 
Friendship, Viroqua, Prairie Du Chien, Richland Center, 
and Platteville
1248 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of northeast Iowa and
Wisconsin will expire at 1 PM CDT this afternoon. The threat for
heavy rain has ended and moved south of the area. Flooding is
occurring on area rivers...streams and creeks...due to the recent
rain. Never cross a flooded roadway.


$$

DTJ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
323 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

Main short-term fcst concern is the heavy rain/flash flooding threat
late this afternoon/tonight, and a threat of strong to severe TSRA
this afternoon/evening.

06z data analysis had high pressure to our east and low pressure to
our west in the Dakotas. Deep southerly flow between the 2 and and
of troughing emerging from the Rockies continues to feed a very
moist airmass into the region. Convection continues to fire in the
stronger low level moisture transport of a 1.8 to 2 inch PW airmass
from western IA to eastern WI. SHRA/TSRA early this morning are
efficient rain makers with the stronger storms producing 1 to 2
inches of rain per hour. Some water problems ongoing across parts
of the SE side of the fcst area where earlier rains have left
soils saturated.

Model runs of 04.00z initialized rather well with solutions similar
at the larger scale as the troughing and shortwave energy lift
across the plains today and into the Upper Midwest tonight. Lower
level meso-scale detail differences continue though. Fcst confidence
is generally good, but not as good as one would really like given
the potential impacts of the weather later this afternoon/tonight.

A lull in the moisture transport/lower level thermo-dynamic forcing
expected around 12z this morning as one weak shortwave exits
northeast. Much of the area to experience a break in the SHRA/TSRA
right away this morning but moisture transport and lift start to
return by mid morning as the next shortwave out of the western
troughing lifts toward the region and 925-700mb winds increase.
Higher SHRA/TSRA chances later this morning focused over the NW side
of the fcst area. Lower level winds and transport of moisture
continue to increase this afternoon, with an increase of lower level
shear. CAPE progged to increase as well mainly over the SE 1/2 to
2/3 of the fcst area where temps are looking to warm into the upper
70s/lower 80s. A few strong to severe TSRA looking possible this
afternoon into this evening. Severe threat looking somewhat
conditional that there is a break from convection this morning and
some diurnal warming can occur to build instability. See SWODY1
for more details.

Stronger lower level winds this afternoon/evening mean stronger
transport of a 2+ inch PW airmass NE across the fcst area this
afternoon/tonight. This ahead the approaching sfc-700mb trough and
the F-gen forcing/lift with it. A line of SHRA/TSRA expected to
develop this afternoon, mainly just NW of the fcst area, then
translate slowly into/across the area late this afternoon/tonight.
Model consensus continues to indicate potential for very heavy rains
start late this afternoon and continue thru tonight. Strongest focus
for the heaviest rains remains over about the NW half of the fcst
area, which has had less rainfall the past week than areas along/
south of I-90. Even so, the threat of flash flooding elevated across
the entire fcst area with bulk of models producing a band of 2 to 6
inches of rainfall tonight. Question remains exactly where the band
occurs as meso-scale detail differences produce varying answers
among the models. For that reason, will issue a flash flood watch
for the entire fcst area tonight, starting late this afternoon
along/NW of a KOLZ-KLSE-KMFI line and continuing into Wed morning
east/south of KLSE. Not a situation to be taken lightly tonight
given the rainfall potential and susceptibility of the stream and
river systems to it right now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

For Wednesday thru Thursday night: main concerns this period are
exiting SHRA/TSRA Wed then cooler, more September like temperatures
thru Thu night.

Model runs of 040.00z in good agreement for the mid level trough axis
to pass Wed, followed by quiet westerly flow Wed night thru Thu
night. Fcst confidence for a much quieter weather this period,
especially after Wed is good.

Sfc front is progged to still be crossing the area Wed morning, with
the mid level trough to pass in the afternoon. Some SHRA/TSRA
expected to be continuing over mainly the SE half of the fcst area
Wed morning. With this area unable to absorb any more rainfall,
seems only natural to continue the flash flood watch thru Wed
morning south and east of KLSE until at least the 850mb trough axis
passes and the high PW airmass is pushed out of the fcst area. By
Wed afternoon, cooler and much drier Can high pressure is building
SE across the region, bringing sfc dew points dropping out of the
60s and a decrease of rain chances/clouds from the NW. Drying/
cooling settles across the area for Wed night thru Thu night as the
center of the high drifts over the great lakes and north to east low
level flow spreads across the area. A touch of fall looks to be in
the air by Wed night thru Thu night with mostly clear skies and lows
in the mid 40s to mid 50s and highs mostly 70-75. Will have to watch
Thu night for the potential of late night valley fog with the sfc
ridge axis over the area but can deal with that later.

For Friday thru Monday (days 4 to 7): main fcst concerns this period
are the remnant of 'Gordon' potentially impacting the area Fri
night/Sat.

Medium range model runs of 04.00z on decent agreement for a mid
level trough to come across the central plains Fri, picking up the
remnants of 'Gordon' then moving thru the mid/upper MS valley Fri
night thru Sat night. Quasi-zonal flow to return for Sun/Mon, but as
usual models at odds on timing of shortwaves thru the flow by days
6/7. day 4-7 confidence is average this cycle.

Friday looking to be an extension of the weather of Thu with the
Can/great lakes high holding over the region. Small Consensus
SHRA/TSRA chances across the SW side of the fcst area around the
perimeter of the high OK for now. Plenty of model detail difference
with the timing and latitude of the remnants of 'Gordon' moving
thru the mid/upper MS centered on Sat. ECMWF the slowest/furthest
north with the remnants, bringing into the fcst area while
GFS/GEM/GEFS faster and keep it generally south of the WI/IL border.
Some SHRA/TSRA chances mainly across the south half of the fcst area
centered on Sat OK for now. Given the differences in timing of
shortwave thru quasi-zonal flow, some small SHRA/TSRA chances
returning by Mon are reasonable. Thru all this, trend of
temperatures near to a bit below normal Fri-Mon looks good.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Showers and storms should mostly stay south of LSE/RST the remainder
of the night, with current IFR conditions for both sites gradually
improving through sunrise. However, will have to watch the potential
for RST to develop some fog if (big *if*) skies can clear enough,
though there is some fog developing south of that location at this
early morning hour. A return to VFR conditions should make an
appearance for a time Tuesday mid morning into early afternoon, with
additional showers and storms then developing into the afternoon and
evening hours. In fact, it appears quite likely that a period of
heavy rain and storms will impact both RST and eventually LSE into
Tuesday evening, when IFR conditions will be possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...today into Wed morning
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Periods of heavy rain are expected into Wednesday morning. Given the
high PW values, any storms will continue to be efficient rain
producers with rain rates up to 2 inches/hr possible. If any storms
train over areas that have received heavy rains over the past week
to 10 days, areas of flooding could develop.

The highest potential for additional heavy rains and possible flash
flooding, remains focused on this afternoon and tonight. The next
cold front will be advancing into the area with strong moisture
transport focused into the front. An axis of high PW values, at and
above 2 inches, will reside ahead of the front. A strong linear
forcing signal will accompany the front, with the sfc-mid level flow
parallel to the front/forcing. The concerns remain timing and where
will the strongest forcing/lift/training set up to produce a band of
heavy/excessive rains. Consensus at this time is from north-central
IA to NE WI, just NW of the fcst area this afternoon, then
translating east/SE across the fcst area tonight. Much of the
landscape is saturated from rains of the past week - 10 days,
especially near and south of I-90. Any additional heavy rains have
the potential to quickly producing runoff and rises/flooding on
rivers and streams. However, uncertainty remains on the exact
location of the heaviest rain band as variability continues among
both the global and CAMs/hi-res models. Some consistency for as much
as 3 to 6 inches of rain in the band thru tonight though. Given the
sensitivity of the landscape and rivers to any more rain, will issue
a flash flood watch for the entire area centered on tonight.

Minor flooding is already occurring along parts of the Kickapoo and
Turkey Rivers, with potential for moderate flooding from rains that
have already fallen. See the latest flood statements for more
details.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through Wednesday morning
     for WIZ017-029-032>034-041.

     Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
     for WIZ042>044-053>055-061.

MN...Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through Wednesday morning
     for MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through Wednesday morning
     for IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

     Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
     for IAZ011-030.

&&

SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION.....Lawrence
HYDROLOGY....RRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

IAZ008>010-018-019-029-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041-051100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Wabasha-Dodge-
Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-
Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and western into north-central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A flash flood watch is in effect late this afternoon and tonight.

More showers and storms are expected mainly this afternoon and
tonight. This round of storms has the potential to bring very
heavy rains, with several inches of rainfall possible. With wet
soils unable to hold much more rain, this rainfall would likely
result in localized to widespread flooding and flash flooding.

A few stronger to severe storms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Strong to damaging winds and isolated tornadoes, along
with the heavy rains, are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Sunday

Shower and storm chances diminish Wednesday morning, with the main
threats locally heavy rain and lightning. Thunderstorm chances
return for Friday night through Saturday night. Severe storms are
not anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of rainfall and any flooding are appreciated. A few
spotters groups may be needed this afternoon and evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A webinar is scheduled for 1 pm this afternoon.

IAZ011-030-WIZ042>044-053>055-061-051100-
Allamakee-Clayton-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-
Grant-
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A flash flood watch is in effect later this evening through
Wednesday morning.

More showers and storms are expected mainly tonight into Wednesday
morning. This round of storms has the potential to bring heavy
rains, with 1 to 3 inches. With wet soils unable to hold any more
rain and ongoing flooding on some rivers, this rainfall would
likely result in enhanced or renewed flooding and flash flooding
for parts of the area.

A few stronger to severe storms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Strong to damaging winds and isolated tornadoes, along
with the heavy rains, are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Sunday

Shower and storm chances diminish Wednesday morning, with the main
threats locally heavy rain and lightning. Thunderstorm chances
return for Friday night through Saturday night. Severe storms are
not anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of rainfall and any flooding are appreciated. A few
spotters groups may be needed this afternoon and evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A webinar is scheduled for 1 pm this afternoon.

RRS/Rieck

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1017 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 W CAZENOVIA           43.53N 90.31W
09/03/2018                   RICHLAND           WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY ROADS UNDER WATER IN RURAL AREAS
            BETWEEN YUBA AND CAZENOVIA.

&&

CA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1022 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1021 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNW ESOFEA            43.65N 90.98W
09/03/2018                   VERNON             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCANNER REPORT OF A VEHICLE AND PERSON
            TRAPPED IN FLOOD WATER AT INTERSECTION OF
            COUNTY ROADS B AND KK.

&&

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1134 PM CDT MON SEP 3 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1042 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      1 N MARQUETTE           43.06N 91.18W
09/03/2018                   CLAYTON            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF A MUDSLIDE ON IA-76 NEAR
            MARQUETTE.

&&

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1231 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1229 AM     DEBRIS FLOW      CASHTON                 43.74N 90.78W
09/04/2018                   MONROE             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WATER OVER ROADS,
            INCLUDING 1-2 FEET OF WATER IN DOWNTOWN
            NORWALK, AND A MUDSLIDE ON HWY 27 JUST NORTH
            OF CASHTON. APARTMENT COMPLEX EVACUATED IN
            CASHTON AS WELL WITH WATER UP TO THE FIRST
            FLOOR OF BUILDING. FLOODING HAPPENED IN THE
            PAST 1-2 HOURS PER DISPATCH.

&&

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
104 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0104 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ONTARIO                 43.73N 90.59W
09/04/2018                   MONROE             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SCANNER REPORTS OF EVACUATIONS AND ROAD
            CLOSURES DUE TO HIGH WATER ONGOING RIGHT
            NOW.

&&

LAWRENCE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
105 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1229 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CASHTON                 43.74N 90.78W
09/04/2018                   MONROE             WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CORRECTED REPORT. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WATER
            OVER ROADS, INCLUDING 1-2 FEET OF WATER IN
            DOWNTOWN NORWALK, AND A MUDSLIDE ON HWY 27
            JUST NORTH OF CASHTON. APARTMENT COMPLEX
            EVACUATED IN CASHTON AS WELL WITH WATER UP
            TO THE FIRST FLOOR OF BUILDING. FLOODING
            HAPPENED IN THE PAST 1-2 HOURS PER DISPATCH.

&&

LAWRENCE