River Flood Warning 76, NWS La Crosse, WI

774 
WGUS83 KARX 042213
FLSARX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
513 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

.Recent rain and additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 5 inches 
area wide this evening into tonight will cause significant 
rises along the Cedar...Turkey and Root rivers.

River forecasts take into account both observed and forecast 
precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Do not drive cars into flooded areas. Remember, it only takes two 
feet of water to float most automobiles, including sport utility 
vehicles. Turn Around, Don't Drown!

Additional river and weather information is available at...
http://www.weather.gov/lacrosse .

&&

IAC067-051311-
/O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0075.180906T0216Z-180907T2221Z/
/CCYI4.1.ER.180906T0216Z.180906T1200Z.180907T0421Z.NO/
513 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cedar River at Charles City.
* from Wednesday evening to Friday afternoon...Or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At  4:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 3.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Wednesday evening and continue
  to rise to near 14.6 feet Thursday morning. 
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Bracket Street is closed.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4321 9286 4321 9273 4301 9255 4293 9255 4304 9273

$$

MNC099-051311-
/O.CON.KARX.FL.W.0076.180905T2034Z-180907T0600Z/
/TRCM5.1.ER.180905T2034Z.180906T0000Z.180906T1200Z.NO/
513 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Turtle Creek Near Austin 3NW.
* from Wednesday afternoon to late Thursday night...Or until the 
  warning is cancelled.
* At  4:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 2.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Wednesday and continue to rise
  to near 10.9 feet Wednesday evening. 
* Impact...At 10.5 feet...Minor flooding begins along the creek in 
  Austin.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4370 9305 4368 9300 4365 9297 4364 9298 4367 9305

$$

MNC055-051311-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0077.180905T1742Z-180907T0500Z/
/HOUM5.1.ER.180905T1742Z.180906T0000Z.180906T1100Z.NO/
513 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Root River Near Houston.
* from Wednesday afternoon to late Thursday night...Or until the 
  warning is cancelled.
* At  4:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 4.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Wednesday and continue to rise
  to near 15.8 feet Wednesday evening. 
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4382 9173 4379 9145 4376 9145 4375 9167 4378 9173

$$

IAC191-051311-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-180906T0837Z/
/SPLI4.1.ER.180904T0730Z.180905T1200Z.180905T1437Z.NO/
513 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Turkey River at Spillville.
* until late Wednesday night...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  4:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 6.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Wednesday morning and continue
  to rise to near 9.7 feet Wednesday morning. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4328 9206 4328 9199 4321 9190 4317 9192 4317 9198

$$

IAC043-051311-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-180908T1000Z/
/EKDI4.1.ER.180903T1340Z.180905T1800Z.180907T1600Z.NO/
513 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Turkey River at Elkader.
* until late Friday night...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  4:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 13.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 14.5 feet 
  Wednesday. 
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Minor flooding occurs in areas near the 
  river.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4294 9146 4284 9134 4280 9136 4293 9161 4298 9161

$$

IAC043-051311-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-180907T2200Z/
/GRBI4.2.ER.180904T0738Z.180905T1200Z.180907T0400Z.NO/
513 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Turkey River at Garber.
* until Friday afternoon...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  4:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 18.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 21.0 feet  
  Wednesday morning. 
* Impact...At 19.0 feet...County Road X3C at the south end of Garber 
  becomes inundated.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4280 9136 4284 9134 4269 9096 4272 9131

$$

782 
WGUS83 KARX 050315
FLSARX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1015 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

.Recent heavy rain will cause significant rises along the 
Cedar...Turkey and Root rivers.

River forecasts take into account both observed and forecast 
precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Do not drive cars into flooded areas. Remember, it only takes two 
feet of water to float most automobiles, including sport utility 
vehicles. Turn Around, Don't Drown!

Additional river and weather information is available at...
http://www.weather.gov/lacrosse .

&&

IAC067-051815-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0075.180905T2200Z-180908T0230Z/
/CCYI4.1.ER.180905T2200Z.180906T1200Z.180907T0830Z.NO/
1015 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cedar River at Charles City.
* from Wednesday afternoon to Friday evening...Or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At  9:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 3.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage Wednesday and continue to rise
  to near 14.9 feet Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Bracket Street is closed.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4321 9286 4321 9273 4301 9255 4293 9255 4304 9273

$$

MNC099-051815-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0076.180905T1609Z-180907T1600Z/
/TRCM5.1.ER.180905T1609Z.180906T0000Z.180906T2200Z.NO/
1015 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Turtle Creek Near Austin 3NW.
* from Wednesday morning to Friday morning...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At  9:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 5.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage Wednesday morning and continue
  to rise to near 11.5 feet Wednesday evening. 
* Impact...At 10.5 feet...Minor flooding begins along the creek in 
  Austin.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4370 9305 4368 9300 4365 9297 4364 9298 4367 9305

$$

MNC055-051815-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0077.180905T1625Z-180907T1030Z/
/HOUM5.1.ER.180905T1625Z.180906T0600Z.180906T1630Z.NO/
1015 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Root River Near Houston.
* from Wednesday morning to late Thursday night...Or until the 
  warning is cancelled.
* At  9:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 4.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage Wednesday morning and continue
  to rise to near 16.3 feet Thursday morning. 
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Minor lowland flooding occurs.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4382 9173 4379 9145 4376 9145 4375 9167 4378 9173

$$

IAC191-051815-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0068.000000T0000Z-180906T1000Z/
/SPLI4.1.ER.180904T0730Z.180905T1200Z.180905T1600Z.NO/
1015 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Turkey River at Spillville.
* until late Wednesday night...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 6.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage Wednesday morning and continue
  to rise to near 10.0 feet Wednesday morning. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 4328 9206 4328 9199 4321 9190 4317 9192 4317 9198

$$

IAC043-051815-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-180908T0945Z/
/EKDI4.1.ER.180903T1340Z.180904T1015Z.180907T1545Z.NO/
1015 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Turkey River at Elkader.
* until late Friday night...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:45 PM Tuesday the stage was 13.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 13.5 feet  
  Thursday morning. 
* Impact...At 12.0 feet...Minor flooding occurs in areas near the 
  river.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4294 9146 4284 9134 4280 9136 4293 9161 4298 9161

$$

IAC043-051815-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0067.000000T0000Z-180907T1930Z/
/GRBI4.1.ER.180904T0738Z.180904T1830Z.180907T0130Z.NO/
1015 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Turkey River at Garber.
* until Friday afternoon...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  9:15 PM Tuesday the stage was 18.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 18.3 feet 
  Wednesday morning. 
* Impact...At 17.0 feet...Minor flooding begins in the communities of 
  Garber, Osterdock and Millville.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4280 9136 4284 9134 4269 9096 4272 9131

$$

918 
WGUS83 KARX 051634
FLSARX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1134 AM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

.Recent heavy rainfall is leading to significant river rises.

River forecasts take into account both observed and forecast 
precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

Do not drive cars into flooded areas. Remember, it only takes two 
feet of water to float most automobiles, including sport utility 
vehicles. Turn Around, Don't Drown!

Additional river and weather information is available at...
http://www.weather.gov/lacrosse .

&&

MNC099-060734-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-180907T0800Z/
/TRCM5.1.ER.180905T1628Z.180906T0000Z.180906T1400Z.NO/
1134 AM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Turtle Creek Near Austin 3NW.
* until late Thursday night...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 10:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 10.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage today and continue to 
  rise to near 11.0 feet by this evening. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet...Minor flooding begins along the creek in 
  Austin.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4370 9305 4368 9300 4365 9297 4364 9298 4367 9305

$$

527 
WGUS83 KARX 052121
FLSARX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
421 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

.Flood Warnings continue along the Cedar River at Charles City and 
along Turtle Creek near Austin.

River forecasts take into account both observed and forecast 
precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 

Do not drive cars into flooded areas. Remember, it only takes two 
feet of water to float most automobiles, including sport utility 
vehicles. Turn Around, Don't Drown!

Additional river and weather information is available at...
http://www.weather.gov/lacrosse .

&&

IAC067-061220-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0075.180906T0400Z-180908T0130Z/
/CCYI4.1.ER.180906T0400Z.180906T1200Z.180907T0730Z.NO/
421 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cedar River at Charles City.
* from this evening to Friday evening...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 3:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 7.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 14.8 feet by Thursday morning. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Friday morning.
* Impact...At 15.0 feet...Leland Avenue floods, and flooding on Park 
  Drive and 19th Avenue is likely.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4321 9286 4321 9273 4301 9255 4293 9255 4304 9273

$$

MNC099-061220-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-180906T2200Z/
/TRCM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180906T0000Z.180906T0400Z.NO/
421 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Turtle Creek Near Austin 3NW.
* until Thursday afternoon...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 3:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 10.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 10.7 feet by this
  evening. The river will fall below flood stage this evening.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet...Minor flooding begins along the creek in 
  Austin.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4370 9305 4368 9300 4365 9297 4364 9298 4367 9305

$$

CA

479 
WGUS83 KARX 060233
FLSARX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
933 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

.Flood warnings continues along the Cedar River at Charles City 
and along Turtle Creek near Austin.

River forecasts take into account both observed and forecast 
precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 

Do not drive cars into flooded areas. Remember, it only takes two 
feet of water to float most automobiles, including sport utility 
vehicles. Turn Around, Don't Drown!

Additional river and weather information is available at...
http://www.weather.gov/lacrosse .

&&

IAC067-061732-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0075.180906T1013Z-180908T0730Z/
/CCYI4.1.ER.180906T1013Z.180907T0000Z.180907T1330Z.NO/
933 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cedar River at Charles City.
* from late tonight to late Friday night...Or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 8:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 8.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Thursday morning and continue 
  to rise to near 14.3 feet by Thursday evening. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Friday morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Bracket Street is closed.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4321 9286 4321 9273 4301 9255 4293 9255 4304 9273

$$

MNC099-061732-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-180906T2111Z/
/TRCM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180905T2230Z.180906T0311Z.NO/
933 PM CDT Wed Sep 5 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Turtle Creek Near Austin 3NW.
* until Thursday afternoon...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At 8:30 PM Wednesday the stage was 10.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall...Dropping below flood 
  stage tonight.
* Impact...At 10.5 feet...Minor flooding begins along the creek in 
  Austin.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4370 9305 4368 9300 4365 9297 4364 9298 4367 9305

$$

CA

430 
WGUS83 KARX 060821
FLSARX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
321 AM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018

.Flood warning continues along the Cedar River at Charles City.

River forecasts take into account both observed and forecast 
precipitation.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars into flooded areas. Remember, it only takes two 
feet of water to float most automobiles, including sport utility 
vehicles. Turn Around, Don't Drown!

Additional river and weather information is available at...
http://www.weather.gov/lacrosse .

&&

MNC099-060851-
/O.CAN.KARX.FL.W.0082.000000T0000Z-180907T0112Z/
/LANM5.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
321 AM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Cedar River at Lansing.
* At  2:30 AM Thursday the stage was 17.7 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 17.8 feet. The 
  river will continue to fall to 13.5 feet by Friday morning.


$$

IAC067-062320-
/O.EXT.KARX.FL.W.0075.180906T1052Z-180908T0730Z/
/CCYI4.1.ER.180906T1052Z.180907T0000Z.180907T1330Z.NO/
321 AM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cedar River at Charles City.
* until late Friday night...Or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  2:30 AM Thursday the stage was 9.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 12.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this morning and continue to 
  rise to near 14.3 feet by this evening. The river will fall below 
  flood stage by Friday morning.
* Impact...At 14.0 feet...Bracket Street is closed.

&&
 
LAT...LON 4321 9286 4321 9273 4301 9255 4293 9255 4304 9273

$$

MNC099-060851-
/O.CAN.KARX.FL.W.0076.000000T0000Z-180906T2111Z/
/TRCM5.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180905T2230Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
321 AM CDT Thu Sep 6 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Turtle Creek Near Austin 3NW.
* At  2:30 AM Thursday the stage was 10.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 10.5 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 10.4 feet. The 
  river will continue to fall to 7.3 feet by Friday morning.


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1038 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

.UPDATE...(Severe Weather Potential This Evening)
Issued at 1038 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Watching how next 12-18 hours will evolve very closely. With more
sunshine today south and east of the cloud shield, significant
instability, very high precipitable water values, and approaching
wave, numerous ingredients in place for potential active and
dangerous period of weather.

First off, will need to watch overall rainfall and where axis of
training and psuedo deformation zone sets up as surface low ejects.
Thinking it will initially setup across southeast Minnesota into
north central Wisconsin. Good news this is NOT the area that has
been hardest hit over the past week, but bad news is several inches
of rain is possible through the evening, which could lead to NEW
flooding on basins yet to be affected, like Black, Trempealeau,
Buffalo, and Zumbro Rivers. That rain threat will shift south then
later this evening to areas that are already suffering from way too
much rain and on-going flooding. Would not be surprised with
numerous additional warnings.

In addition, will need to watch tornado setup with backing of low
level winds as surface low and wave approaches this evening. Bowing
segments the likely storm mode with a threat for damaging wind and
heavy rain, but will need to watch for isolated tornadoes with
decent, deep shear and previously mentioned backing low level flow.
Tornadoes would likely be short lived but could be moving fast if
they form. Hail threat looks minimal given warm cloud depth.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Mon Sep 3 2018

Main short-term fcst concern is the heavy rain/flash flooding threat
late this afternoon/tonight, and a threat of strong to severe TSRA
this afternoon/evening.

06z data analysis had high pressure to our east and low pressure to
our west in the Dakotas. Deep southerly flow between the 2 and and
of troughing emerging from the Rockies continues to feed a very
moist airmass into the region. Convection continues to fire in the
stronger low level moisture transport of a 1.8 to 2 inch PW airmass
from western IA to eastern WI. SHRA/TSRA early this morning are
efficient rain makers with the stronger storms producing 1 to 2
inches of rain per hour. Some water problems ongoing across parts
of the SE side of the fcst area where earlier rains have left
soils saturated.

Model runs of 04.00z initialized rather well with solutions similar
at the larger scale as the troughing and shortwave energy lift
across the plains today and into the Upper Midwest tonight. Lower
level meso-scale detail differences continue though. Fcst confidence
is generally good, but not as good as one would really like given
the potential impacts of the weather later this afternoon/tonight.

A lull in the moisture transport/lower level thermo-dynamic forcing
expected around 12z this morning as one weak shortwave exits
northeast. Much of the area to experience a break in the SHRA/TSRA
right away this morning but moisture transport and lift start to
return by mid morning as the next shortwave out of the western
troughing lifts toward the region and 925-700mb winds increase.
Higher SHRA/TSRA chances later this morning focused over the NW side
of the fcst area. Lower level winds and transport of moisture
continue to increase this afternoon, with an increase of lower level
shear. CAPE progged to increase as well mainly over the SE 1/2 to
2/3 of the fcst area where temps are looking to warm into the upper
70s/lower 80s. A few strong to severe TSRA looking possible this
afternoon into this evening. Severe threat looking somewhat
conditional that there is a break from convection this morning and
some diurnal warming can occur to build instability. See SWODY1
for more details.

Stronger lower level winds this afternoon/evening mean stronger
transport of a 2+ inch PW airmass NE across the fcst area this
afternoon/tonight. This ahead the approaching sfc-700mb trough and
the F-gen forcing/lift with it. A line of SHRA/TSRA expected to
develop this afternoon, mainly just NW of the fcst area, then
translate slowly into/across the area late this afternoon/tonight.
Model consensus continues to indicate potential for very heavy rains
start late this afternoon and continue thru tonight. Strongest focus
for the heaviest rains remains over about the NW half of the fcst
area, which has had less rainfall the past week than areas along/
south of I-90. Even so, the threat of flash flooding elevated across
the entire fcst area with bulk of models producing a band of 2 to 6
inches of rainfall tonight. Question remains exactly where the band
occurs as meso-scale detail differences produce varying answers
among the models. For that reason, will issue a flash flood watch
for the entire fcst area tonight, starting late this afternoon
along/NW of a KOLZ-KLSE-KMFI line and continuing into Wed morning
east/south of KLSE. Not a situation to be taken lightly tonight
given the rainfall potential and susceptibility of the stream and
river systems to it right now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

For Wednesday thru Thursday night: main concerns this period are
exiting SHRA/TSRA Wed then cooler, more September like temperatures
thru Thu night.

Model runs of 040.00z in good agreement for the mid level trough axis
to pass Wed, followed by quiet westerly flow Wed night thru Thu
night. Fcst confidence for a much quieter weather this period,
especially after Wed is good.

Sfc front is progged to still be crossing the area Wed morning, with
the mid level trough to pass in the afternoon. Some SHRA/TSRA
expected to be continuing over mainly the SE half of the fcst area
Wed morning. With this area unable to absorb any more rainfall,
seems only natural to continue the flash flood watch thru Wed
morning south and east of KLSE until at least the 850mb trough axis
passes and the high PW airmass is pushed out of the fcst area. By
Wed afternoon, cooler and much drier Can high pressure is building
SE across the region, bringing sfc dew points dropping out of the
60s and a decrease of rain chances/clouds from the NW. Drying/
cooling settles across the area for Wed night thru Thu night as the
center of the high drifts over the great lakes and north to east low
level flow spreads across the area. A touch of fall looks to be in
the air by Wed night thru Thu night with mostly clear skies and lows
in the mid 40s to mid 50s and highs mostly 70-75. Will have to watch
Thu night for the potential of late night valley fog with the sfc
ridge axis over the area but can deal with that later.

For Friday thru Monday (days 4 to 7): main fcst concerns this period
are the remnant of 'Gordon' potentially impacting the area Fri
night/Sat.

Medium range model runs of 04.00z on decent agreement for a mid
level trough to come across the central plains Fri, picking up the
remnants of 'Gordon' then moving thru the mid/upper MS valley Fri
night thru Sat night. Quasi-zonal flow to return for Sun/Mon, but as
usual models at odds on timing of shortwaves thru the flow by days
6/7. day 4-7 confidence is average this cycle.

Friday looking to be an extension of the weather of Thu with the
Can/great lakes high holding over the region. Small Consensus
SHRA/TSRA chances across the SW side of the fcst area around the
perimeter of the high OK for now. Plenty of model detail difference
with the timing and latitude of the remnants of 'Gordon' moving
thru the mid/upper MS centered on Sat. ECMWF the slowest/furthest
north with the remnants, bringing into the fcst area while
GFS/GEM/GEFS faster and keep it generally south of the WI/IL border.
Some SHRA/TSRA chances mainly across the south half of the fcst area
centered on Sat OK for now. Given the differences in timing of
shortwave thru quasi-zonal flow, some small SHRA/TSRA chances
returning by Mon are reasonable. Thru all this, trend of
temperatures near to a bit below normal Fri-Mon looks good.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 542 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Another taf period dominated by convection. Most of the area to get
a lull from SHRA/TSRA early this morning, but forcing/lift and
moisture into the area increases thru the day and maximizes this
evening. SHRA/TSRA to gradually increase thru the late morning and
afternoon, become numerous/widespread for the evening, then diminish
from west to east during the overnight hours. Some VFR conditions
expected for the late morning/afternoon hours, with mainly MVFR/IFR
cigs by late afternoon thru tonight. MVFR vsbys to prevail in the
SHRA/TSRA later this afternoon into the overnight hours. Any
stronger SHRA/TSRA will have IFR vsbys in the cores as they will be
efficient heavy rain producers, and may yet need a period of IFR
TSRA this evening when timing becomes clearer. Improving conditions
expected thru the day on Wed as drier Canadian high pressure builds
into the region.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...today into Wed morning
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Periods of heavy rain are expected into Wednesday morning. Given the
high PW values, any storms will continue to be efficient rain
producers with rain rates up to 2 inches/hr possible. If any storms
train over areas that have received heavy rains over the past week
to 10 days, areas of flooding could develop.

The highest potential for additional heavy rains and possible flash
flooding, remains focused on this afternoon and tonight. The next
cold front will be advancing into the area with strong moisture
transport focused into the front. An axis of high PW values, at and
above 2 inches, will reside ahead of the front. A strong linear
forcing signal will accompany the front, with the sfc-mid level flow
parallel to the front/forcing. The concerns remain timing and where
will the strongest forcing/lift/training set up to produce a band of
heavy/excessive rains. Consensus at this time is from north-central
IA to NE WI, just NW of the fcst area this afternoon, then
translating east/SE across the fcst area tonight. Much of the
landscape is saturated from rains of the past week - 10 days,
especially near and south of I-90. Any additional heavy rains have
the potential to quickly producing runoff and rises/flooding on
rivers and streams. However, uncertainty remains on the exact
location of the heaviest rain band as variability continues among
both the global and CAMs/hi-res models. Some consistency for as much
as 3 to 6 inches of rain in the band thru tonight though. Given the
sensitivity of the landscape and rivers to any more rain, will issue
a flash flood watch for the entire area centered on tonight.

Minor flooding is already occurring along parts of the Kickapoo and
Turkey Rivers, with potential for moderate flooding from rains that
have already fallen. See the latest flood statements for more
details.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through Wednesday morning
     for WIZ017-029-032>034-041.

     Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
     for WIZ042>044-053>055-061.

MN...Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through Wednesday morning
     for MNZ079-086>088-094>096.

IA...Flash Flood Watch from this afternoon through Wednesday morning
     for IAZ008>010-018-019-029.

     Flash Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday afternoon
     for IAZ011-030.

&&

UPDATE...Shea
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM...RRS
AVIATION...RRS
HYDROLOGY...RRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

IAZ008>010-018-019-029-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
041-051100-
Mitchell-Howard-Winneshiek-Floyd-Chickasaw-Fayette-Wabasha-Dodge-
Olmsted-Winona-Mower-Fillmore-Houston-Taylor-Clark-Buffalo-
Trempealeau-Jackson-La Crosse-
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast
Minnesota...northeast Iowa and western into north-central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A flash flood watch is in effect late this afternoon and tonight.

More showers and storms are expected mainly this afternoon and
tonight. This round of storms has the potential to bring very
heavy rains, with several inches of rainfall possible. With wet
soils unable to hold much more rain, this rainfall would likely
result in localized to widespread flooding and flash flooding.

A few stronger to severe storms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Strong to damaging winds and isolated tornadoes, along
with the heavy rains, are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Sunday

Shower and storm chances diminish Wednesday morning, with the main
threats locally heavy rain and lightning. Thunderstorm chances
return for Friday night through Saturday night. Severe storms are
not anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of rainfall and any flooding are appreciated. A few
spotters groups may be needed this afternoon and evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A webinar is scheduled for 1 pm this afternoon.

IAZ011-030-WIZ042>044-053>055-061-051100-
Allamakee-Clayton-Monroe-Juneau-Adams-Vernon-Crawford-Richland-
Grant-
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Iowa and southwest into central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A flash flood watch is in effect later this evening through
Wednesday morning.

More showers and storms are expected mainly tonight into Wednesday
morning. This round of storms has the potential to bring heavy
rains, with 1 to 3 inches. With wet soils unable to hold any more
rain and ongoing flooding on some rivers, this rainfall would
likely result in enhanced or renewed flooding and flash flooding
for parts of the area.

A few stronger to severe storms are possible this afternoon and
evening. Strong to damaging winds and isolated tornadoes, along
with the heavy rains, are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Sunday

Shower and storm chances diminish Wednesday morning, with the main
threats locally heavy rain and lightning. Thunderstorm chances
return for Friday night through Saturday night. Severe storms are
not anticipated.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Reports of rainfall and any flooding are appreciated. A few
spotters groups may be needed this afternoon and evening.

.EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...

A webinar is scheduled for 1 pm this afternoon.

RRS/Rieck

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
807 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ADAMS/FRIENDSHIP WASTE  43.98N 89.83W
09/04/2018  E3.53 INCH       ADAMS              WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JSB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
838 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LA FARGE                43.57N 90.64W
09/04/2018  M2.20 INCH       VERNON             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JSB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
841 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       VIROQUA                 43.56N 90.88W
09/04/2018  M2.81 INCH       VERNON             WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JSB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
843 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 SSW ROCKBRIDGE        43.40N 90.39W
09/04/2018  M2.57 INCH       RICHLAND           WI   PUBLIC

&&

JSB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
850 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SW CASHTON            43.72N 90.82W
09/04/2018  M4.75 INCH       VERNON             WI   PUBLIC

&&

JSB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
855 AM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 AM     FLASH FLOOD      ONTARIO                 43.73N 90.59W
09/04/2018                   VERNON             WI   PUBLIC

            COUNTY ROADS F AND T FLOODED.

&&

JSB