Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
831 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Another difficult forecast for today into tonight. Overnight
convection has worked over airmass over much of the region, except
for far SE OK. An MCS over N TX is continuing northeast toward SE
OK and could bring some severe potential later this morning. If
this MCS holds together it could work over the SE OK airmass,
thereby shoving the effective boundary farther south into TX. The
operational HRRR has the N TX MCS, but is much too slow in its
eastward progression thus far. The experimental HRRR as of 09Z
gradually weakens the MCS as it moves into eastern OK, develops
elevated convection across NE OK and lifts it quickly into KS, and
also shows more afternoon development likely along the new
effective boundary down by the Red River. This convection would
then grow upscale into an MCS that would affect all areas along
and south of I-44 this evening. The global models also show an MCS
moving across our region tonight, but likely doesn't have a good
handle on how last night's and this morning's convection is
altering the environment. There were 2 or 3 swaths of locally
heavy rains where 2 to 4 inch rains fell last night. Depending on
how the convection evolves today, some flooding issues could occur
if storms track over these same areas.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 643 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur today, and become
more numerous this evening, with a squall line likely to move
across the area. VFR to occasionally MVFR ceilings will be common
outside of thunderstorm areas.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 302 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Remnant showers and thunderstorms continue early this morning
across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Additional
thunderstorms have developed over central Oklahoma and into
Osage and Pawnee counties as a 60 knot low level jet enhances
the the isentropic lift across the region. This activity is
expected to continue over the next several hours as it move off to
the northeast. This activity has the potential to be strong to
marginally severe as elevated instability remains somewhat
favorable. Large hail would be the primary concern.

More showers and thunderstorms will be likely Today and into Tonight
as a series of factors come together. Thunderstorms now developing over
southwestern Texas are expected to spread into south-central Oklahoma Late
this morning before decaying. The resultant outflow boundary could spawn
showers and thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma by early afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms are also expected to develop in the vicinity of
a cold front this afternoon across central Oklahoma and spread into
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this evening. Some of the storms
could become severe later this afternoon into Tonight as adequate instability
and shear will be in place across the region. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the main concern. However, tornadoes will be possible. Heavy rains
will also be a concern and with the ground already saturated from recent
rains it will not take much to cause flooding. Therefore, have expanded the
Flash Flood Watch further to the south and east. The showers and thunderstorms
are expected to exit the area Saturday morning as the cold front exits to the east.

The chances of showers and thunderstorms return Monday and continue into Tuesday
as a series of mid-level shortwaves affect the region as a northwesterly flow
aloft develops. The remainder of the forecast is dry as the northwesterly flow
aloft persists.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  60  72  51 /  60  90  20  10
FSM   85  68  76  55 /  50  80  50  10
MLC   82  65  74  53 /  50  90  30  10
BVO   79  59  70  47 /  70  90  20   0
FYV   80  64  71  49 /  60  80  50  10
BYV   82  64  71  50 /  60  80  70  10
MKO   81  63  72  52 /  50  90  40  10
MIO   81  62  72  48 /  60  90  40  10
F10   80  61  71  52 /  50  90  20  10
HHW   84  68  76  57 /  60  80  60  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ054>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...30

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
812 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NNE EUFAULA           35.37N 95.54W
05/18/2017                   MCINTOSH           OK   STORM CHASER

            HIGH VOLTAGE TRANSMISSION LINES DOWN ON OLD HIGHWAY 69
            SOUTH OF CHECOTAH, MAKING ROADWAY IMPASSABLE.

&&

LACY

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1107 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

OKZ054-191630-
Osage OK-
1107 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
1130 AM CDT...

At 1106 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles north of
Hominy, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawhuska...                       Hominy...
Barnsdall...                      Wynona...
Osage Hills State Park...         Okesa...
Pershing...                       Nelagoney...
Tallant...

LAT...LON 3667 9600 3658 9600 3635 9642 3649 9656
      3682 9616
TIME...MOT...LOC 1606Z 230DEG 35KT 3648 9643

Lacy