Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1159 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Line of severe thunderstorms will be passing through the western
AR TAF sites just before valid 06z issuance time with wind gusts
in excess of 50 knots possible. Aside from that MVFR conditions
expected to prevail late tonight through Friday morning.
Additional thunderstorms expected Friday but low confidence in
timing, and will continue to be handled with TEMPO groups and/or
VCTS, with potential for short-lived IFR conditions with storms
along with significant wind gusts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 919 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Strong to severe thunderstorms continue this evening with heavy
rainfall occurring in the stronger clusters. A marginal wind/hail
threat will likely persist into the overnight hours as storms
progress eastward into instability axis. In addition, given the
rainfall rates, the threat for localized flash flooding will also
be possible.

A quick look at the latest 00Z NAM indicates another round of
severe thunderstorms late Friday afternoon into Friday night.
Flash flooding could become a major concern, especially given the
rainfall that is ongoing. Update out shortly given latest radar
trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  82  61  73 /  90  60  90  30
FSM   70  87  68  77 /  60  40  70  80
MLC   71  84  65  75 /  90  30  90  60
BVO   67  81  58  71 /  70  60  90  20
FYV   67  82  64  73 /  60  30  70  70
BYV   68  83  65  75 /  60  30  70  70
MKO   67  82  62  73 / 100  40  90  50
MIO   67  82  63  72 /  70  60  90  50
F10   69  80  60  73 / 100  50  90  40
HHW   69  85  67  77 /  60  40  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ054>067-070-
     071.

AR...None.
&&

AVIATION...14

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
455 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191145-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
455 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL INCREASES THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This evening through Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
 	AREA...West of highway 75.
    ONSET...after 6 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and to a lesser extent Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...after 6 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...after midnight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...after 6 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

An enhanced to moderate risk of severe storms is forecast by early
evening into tonight across Eastern Oklahoma. Very large hail, in
excess of 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes are possible, with the greatest risk northwest of Tulsa. A
slight risk of severe storms is forecast for Western Arkansas late
tonight. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail would be the main
threats, mainly after midnight.

Strong to severe storms have develop this afternoon over western and
central Oklahoma.  These storms are expected to move east into the
region early this evening. The best chance for discrete surface
based cells, and thus the highest tornado and largest hail threat,
will be to the west of highway 75 this evening.

Storms are expected to gradually grow into clusters or lines this
evening as they move deeper into Eastern Oklahoma. Damaging winds
and large hail would be the main threats. An isolated tornado could
occur with any bowing line segments.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind
                        Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Another round of strong to severe storms are expected Friday into
early Saturday as upper level system approaches the region.
Storms will fire along the dryline and cold front, becoming more
numerous with time. All modes of severe will be possible,
especially early when storms are more discrete, with storms again
merging into a line as they move east. Severe threat will
transition to more of a wind and heavy rain/flooding threat as
the night goes on. Convection will linger into Saturday while
gradually weakening, across northwest Arkansas and southeast
Oklahoma.

A system dropping through the region in northwest flow will bring
another round of storm potential Monday and Tuesday. A limited
risk for severe weather can be expected with this system.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
134 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     OZARK                   35.49N 93.83W
05/19/2017                   FRANKLIN           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN THROUGHOUT
            FRANKLIN COUNTY.

&&

CAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
149 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SILOAM SPRINGS          36.19N 94.54W
05/18/2017                   BENTON             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE LIMBS DOWN ON WEST SIDE OF SILOAM SPRINGS.

&&

CAS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
150 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRINGDALE              36.19N 94.13W
05/19/2017                   WASHINGTON         AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF A HOME. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
216 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

OKZ054-059-190800-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
216 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND
SOUTHWESTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

At 216 AM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Glencoe, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Pawnee...                         Hominy...
Cleveland...                      Barnsdall...
Wynona...                         Osage...
Hallett...                        Blackburn...
Maramec...                        Skedee...
Tallant...                        Pershing...
Nelagoney...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3667 9622 3643 9605 3616 9672 3616 9682
      3624 9682 3625 9692 3630 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0716Z 240DEG 49KT 3621 9689