River Flood Warning 60, NWS Tulsa, OK

088 
WGUS84 KTSA 191912
FLSTSA
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
212 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Bird Creek at Avant affecting Osage County. 
  
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Oklahoma...

  Polecat Creek near Sapulpa affecting Creek County. 
  
  Bird Creek near Sperry affecting Osage and Tulsa Counties. 
  
  Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo affecting Tulsa County. 
  
OKC037-200312-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-170520T0846Z/
/SPCO2.1.ER.000000T0000Z.170520T0000Z.170520T0246Z.NO/
212 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa.
* until late tonight, or until the warning is cancelled.
* At  1:00 PM Friday, the stage was estimated to be 21.30 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The Polecat Creek near Sapulpa will rise to near 21.6 
  feet this evening. The river will then fall below flood stage  
  tonight. The heavier rain axis has shifted further southeast, and 
  therefore, the river is expected to crest lower than previously forecast.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet, minor flooding of pasturelands and oil fields
  occurs.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3606 9599 3599 9598 3592 9614 3600 9615

$$

OKC113-191942-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FL.W.0059.000000T0000Z-170520T1235Z/
/AVTO2.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
212 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Bird Creek at Avant.
* At  1:30 PM Friday, the stage was  4.67 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...Bird Creek at Avant will crest below flood stage at 
  8.4 feet Saturday morning. The heavier rain axis has shifted
  further southeast, and therefore, the river is expected to crest
  much lower than previously forecast.

&&
 
LAT...LON 3659 9608 3642 9592 3635 9601 3653 9621

$$

OKC113-143-200312-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0060.170520T0600Z-170520T1200Z/
/SPEO2.1.ER.170520T0600Z.170520T0600Z.170520T0600Z.NO/
212 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Sperry.
* from late tonight to Saturday morning, or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 12:00 PM Friday, the stage was 16.59 feet.
* Flood stage is 21.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Sperry is expected to rise to near 
  flood stage late tonight. The heavier rain axis has shifted further 
  southeast, and therefore, the river is expected to crest lower than
  previously forecast.
* Impact...At 21.0 feet, minor agricultural flooding occurs.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3640 9593 3620 9590 3620 9598 3640 9605

$$

OKC143-200312-
/O.EXT.KTSA.FL.W.0061.170520T1800Z-170521T0000Z/
/OWSO2.1.ER.170520T1800Z.170520T1800Z.170520T1800Z.NO/
212 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo.
* from Saturday afternoon to Saturday evening, or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At  1:00 PM Friday, the stage was 11.28 feet.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast...The Bird Creek near Owasso-Mingo is expected to rise to 
  near flood stage early Saturday afternoon. The heavier rain axis has 
  shifted further southeast, and therefore, the river is expected to 
  crest lower than previously forecast.
* Impact...At 18.0 feet, minor flooding occurs at Mohawk Park and 
  along 56th Street North near Mingo Road.
 
&&
 
LAT...LON 3627 9570 3618 9570 3618 9594 3627 9594

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
831 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Another difficult forecast for today into tonight. Overnight
convection has worked over airmass over much of the region, except
for far SE OK. An MCS over N TX is continuing northeast toward SE
OK and could bring some severe potential later this morning. If
this MCS holds together it could work over the SE OK airmass,
thereby shoving the effective boundary farther south into TX. The
operational HRRR has the N TX MCS, but is much too slow in its
eastward progression thus far. The experimental HRRR as of 09Z
gradually weakens the MCS as it moves into eastern OK, develops
elevated convection across NE OK and lifts it quickly into KS, and
also shows more afternoon development likely along the new
effective boundary down by the Red River. This convection would
then grow upscale into an MCS that would affect all areas along
and south of I-44 this evening. The global models also show an MCS
moving across our region tonight, but likely doesn't have a good
handle on how last night's and this morning's convection is
altering the environment. There were 2 or 3 swaths of locally
heavy rains where 2 to 4 inch rains fell last night. Depending on
how the convection evolves today, some flooding issues could occur
if storms track over these same areas.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 643 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur today, and become
more numerous this evening, with a squall line likely to move
across the area. VFR to occasionally MVFR ceilings will be common
outside of thunderstorm areas.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 302 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Remnant showers and thunderstorms continue early this morning
across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Additional
thunderstorms have developed over central Oklahoma and into
Osage and Pawnee counties as a 60 knot low level jet enhances
the the isentropic lift across the region. This activity is
expected to continue over the next several hours as it move off to
the northeast. This activity has the potential to be strong to
marginally severe as elevated instability remains somewhat
favorable. Large hail would be the primary concern.

More showers and thunderstorms will be likely Today and into Tonight
as a series of factors come together. Thunderstorms now developing over
southwestern Texas are expected to spread into south-central Oklahoma Late
this morning before decaying. The resultant outflow boundary could spawn
showers and thunderstorms across southeast Oklahoma by early afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms are also expected to develop in the vicinity of
a cold front this afternoon across central Oklahoma and spread into
eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas this evening. Some of the storms
could become severe later this afternoon into Tonight as adequate instability
and shear will be in place across the region. Large hail and damaging winds
will be the main concern. However, tornadoes will be possible. Heavy rains
will also be a concern and with the ground already saturated from recent
rains it will not take much to cause flooding. Therefore, have expanded the
Flash Flood Watch further to the south and east. The showers and thunderstorms
are expected to exit the area Saturday morning as the cold front exits to the east.

The chances of showers and thunderstorms return Monday and continue into Tuesday
as a series of mid-level shortwaves affect the region as a northwesterly flow
aloft develops. The remainder of the forecast is dry as the northwesterly flow
aloft persists.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   80  60  72  51 /  60  90  20  10
FSM   85  68  76  55 /  50  80  50  10
MLC   82  65  74  53 /  50  90  30  10
BVO   79  59  70  47 /  70  90  20   0
FYV   80  64  71  49 /  60  80  50  10
BYV   82  64  71  50 /  60  80  70  10
MKO   81  63  72  52 /  50  90  40  10
MIO   81  62  72  48 /  60  90  40  10
F10   80  61  71  52 /  50  90  20  10
HHW   84  68  76  57 /  60  80  60  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ054>076.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

SHORT TERM...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
519 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
519 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Late afternoon.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...This afternoon.

DISCUSSION...
A complex scenario is unfolding today, with multiple rounds of
storms possible. Overnight storms have left behind several outflow
boundaries, and ongoing storms across northeast Oklahoma are
expected to weaken this morning.

Thunderstorm redevelopment is expected this afternoon near any
leftover boundaries, and any storm that develops has the potential
to be severe, with all modes of severe weather possible. By late
afternoon or early evening, a squall line is likely to develop
along an advancing cold front, and this line of storms will push
east across the area through the overnight hours. Damaging winds
will be the main threat with the squall line, but isolated brief
tornadoes will also be possible. Marginally severe hail may also
occur with the strongest storms in the line.

Additional heavy rainfall this afternoon and tonight may result in
flash flooding, especially in places that saw the heaviest
rainfall Thursday night.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY and TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east during the
day Saturday. The next storm system will affect the area Monday
into Tuesday bringing a chance of thunderstorms, but only a
limited risk of severe weather.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
757 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 AM     TSTM WND DMG     OZARK                   35.49N 93.83W
05/19/2017                   FRANKLIN           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TRAILER OF AN 18 WHEELER WAS BLOWN TO THE WEST ONTO SOME
            VEHICLES AT THE BUTTERBALL PLANT. CAR WINDOWS WERE
            BROKEN. A 2X4 WAS BLOWN INTO A TRAILER FROM THE
            SOUTHEAST. TIME APPROXIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
801 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG CECIL                   35.44N 93.94W
05/19/2017                   FRANKLIN           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
803 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CECIL                   35.44N 93.94W
05/19/2017                   FRANKLIN           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
806 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S OZARK               35.46N 93.83W
05/19/2017                   FRANKLIN           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN WEBB CITY JUST SOUTH OF OZARK.

&&

LACY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
809 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE ELDON              35.94N 94.83W
05/18/2017                   CHEROKEE           OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN. ESTIMATED AT LARGER THAN 2 INCHES
            IN DIAMETER JUST NORTH OF ELDON.

&&

BLH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
812 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NNE EUFAULA           35.37N 95.54W
05/18/2017                   MCINTOSH           OK   STORM CHASER

            HIGH VOLTAGE TRANSMISSION LINES DOWN ON OLD HIGHWAY 69
            SOUTH OF CHECOTAH, MAKING ROADWAY IMPASSABLE.

&&

LACY