Alert archive / Oklahoma / Special Weather Statements in 2017

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

May 18, 2017Okfuskee County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at May 18, 2017, 8:06 PM CDT for Okfuskee County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 24 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 18, 2017, 8:06 PM CDT (01:06 UTC)
Expired: May 18, 2017, 8:30 PM CDT
In force: 24 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

County Okfuskee County, OK

The radar

The Norman radar (KTLX), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 290 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2055 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -4 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1439 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 44 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 52 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 2.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 18, 6:16 PM CDT, 1 hour 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 18, 6:16 PM CDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
616 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Overall low confidence aviation forecast as multiple rounds of
thunderstorms likely to impact the area through 00z Saturday. In
general, VFR will prevail early with MVFR prevailing later
tonight and Friday morning in most areas, back to generally VFR by
afternoon. Timing of storms handled with TEMPO groups and/or VCTS,
with potential for short-lived IFR conditions with storms along
with significant wind gusts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 348 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Numerous severe storms have developed across western Oklahoma
ahead of the dryline and will move toward northeast Oklahoma this
evening. Soundings from 18z at OUN suggest that airmass is
largely uncapped, with a stout EML above the mid level inversion.
Storms should hold off across eastern Oklahoma til early evening
given lack of low level convergence.

The highest chance for tornadoes will be across Osage/Pawnee
counties associated with supercells that are approaching from
southwest/central OK. Given deep layer shear increasing to above
50 kt this evening and a very unstable airmass in place, severe
thunderstorms are likely across eastern Oklahoma before midnight
with a threat for hail and wind, transitioning to wind and heavy
rain overnight.

The upper trough will move out into the Plains on Friday with the
greater coverage of storms expected Friday afternoon and evening.
A flash flood watch has been issued to account for widespread
rain of 2 to 4 inches expected from tonight into Saturday morning.

Precipitation should end from west to east on Saturday with a nice
day on Sunday. The next chance for storms arrives late Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  82  61  73 /  80  60  90  30
FSM   70  87  68  77 /  50  40  70  80
MLC   71  84  65  75 /  60  30  90  60
BVO   67  81  58  71 /  80  60  90  20
FYV   67  82  64  73 /  50  30  70  70
BYV   68  83  65  75 /  50  30  70  70
MKO   67  82  62  73 /  60  40  90  50
MIO   67  82  63  72 /  60  60  90  50
F10   69  80  60  73 /  60  50  90  40
HHW   69  85  67  77 /  40  40  70  80

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for OKZ054>067-070-
     071.

AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...14

Hazardous weather outlook, May 18, 4:55 PM CDT, 3 hours 11 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
455 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191145-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
455 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL INCREASES THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES
INTO FRIDAY...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This evening through Tonight.

TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
 	AREA...West of highway 75.
    ONSET...after 6 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and to a lesser extent Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...after 6 PM.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...after midnight.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
	ONSET...after 6 PM.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...ongoing.

DISCUSSION...

An enhanced to moderate risk of severe storms is forecast by early
evening into tonight across Eastern Oklahoma. Very large hail, in
excess of 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds and isolated
tornadoes are possible, with the greatest risk northwest of Tulsa. A
slight risk of severe storms is forecast for Western Arkansas late
tonight. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail would be the main
threats, mainly after midnight.

Strong to severe storms have develop this afternoon over western and
central Oklahoma.  These storms are expected to move east into the
region early this evening. The best chance for discrete surface
based cells, and thus the highest tornado and largest hail threat,
will be to the west of highway 75 this evening.

Storms are expected to gradually grow into clusters or lines this
evening as they move deeper into Eastern Oklahoma. Damaging winds
and large hail would be the main threats. An isolated tornado could
occur with any bowing line segments.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY and SATURDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind
                        Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

Another round of strong to severe storms are expected Friday into
early Saturday as upper level system approaches the region.
Storms will fire along the dryline and cold front, becoming more
numerous with time. All modes of severe will be possible,
especially early when storms are more discrete, with storms again
merging into a line as they move east. Severe threat will
transition to more of a wind and heavy rain/flooding threat as
the night goes on. Convection will linger into Saturday while
gradually weakening, across northwest Arkansas and southeast
Oklahoma.

A system dropping through the region in northwest flow will bring
another round of storm potential Monday and Tuesday. A limited
risk for severe weather can be expected with this system.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 18, 6:41 PM CDT, 1 hour 25 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
641 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

OKZ064-065-190030-
Okfuskee OK-Creek OK-
641 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CREEK AND OKFUSKEE COUNTIES UNTIL
730 PM CDT...

At 641 PM CDT, strong thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 3 miles southwest of Yale to 3 miles southwest of
Stroud to 3 miles east of Shawnee. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bristow...                        Okemah...
Okfuskee...                       Mannford...
Drumright...                      Boley...
Oilton...                         Weleetka...
Depew...                          Paden...
Bearden...                        Slick...
Castle...                         Shamrock...
Clearview...                      Welty...
Milfay...                         Silver City...
Mason...

This includes the following highways,
 Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 212 and 228.
 Interstate 44 between mile markers 178 and 203.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3615 9662 3616 9630 3608 9630 3608 9627
      3594 9623 3567 9619 3556 9619 3555 9617
      3529 9613 3529 9644 3546 9644 3546 9647
      3543 9650 3545 9655 3544 9657 3539 9654
      3541 9658 3540 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 232DEG 30KT 3608 9674 3570 9669 3535 9687

69

Special weather statement, May 18, 7:43 PM CDT, 23 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
743 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

OKZ054-190115-
Osage OK-
743 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL OSAGE COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM CDT...

At 742 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles south of
Grainola, moving northeast at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Shidler...                        Elgin...
Grainola...                       Foraker...
Webb City...

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3700 9627 3663 9666 3678 9676 3678 9675
      3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 222DEG 39KT 3686 9667

69

Special weather statement, May 18, 8:00 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
800 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

OKZ054-059-060-064-066-190145-
Tulsa OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
800 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...CENTRAL
CREEK...SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE...NORTHERN OKMULGEE AND TULSA COUNTIES
UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 800 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 4 miles northwest of
Kellyville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tulsa...                          Broken Arrow...
Sand Springs...                   Bristow...
Owasso...                         Bixby...
Sapulpa...                        Jenks...
Glenpool...                       Skiatook...
Catoosa...                        Collinsville...
Mannford...                       Kiefer...
Beggs...                          Sperry...
Mounds...                         Kellyville...
Westport...                       Slick...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 186 and 232.

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3602 9646 3643 9617 3642 9581 3590 9581
      3590 9582 3573 9581 3572 9649
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 232DEG 31KT 3598 9628

69

Special weather statement, May 18, 8:06 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
806 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

OKZ064-065-190130-
Okfuskee OK-Creek OK-
806 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CREEK AND OKFUSKEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 806 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Prague, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Okemah...                         Okfuskee...
Boley...                          Paden...
Castle...                         Welty...
Mason...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 212 and
225.

A tornado watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
and east central Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3571 9662 3573 9620 3539 9619 3537 9644
      3546 9644 3546 9647 3543 9650 3543 9652
      3546 9654 3544 9657 3543 9656 3542 9656
      3541 9654 3539 9654 3541 9658 3540 9660
      3540 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 221DEG 36KT 3548 9665

69

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 18, 7:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Okfuskee	43 min
May 18, 7:43 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	32 min
May 18, 8:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek, Tulsa	45 min
May 18, 8:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Rogers, Tulsa	35 min
May 18, 8:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Okfuskee	42 min
May 18, 8:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner, Washington	48 min
May 18, 9:05 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Creek, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Tulsa	115 min
May 18, 9:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Okmulgee, Osage, Pawnee, Tulsa, Wagoner	24 min
May 18, 9:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	48 min
May 18, 9:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Okmulgee, Osage, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner and 1 more	49 min
May 18, 9:35 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Craig, Nowata	25 min
May 18, 9:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Pittsburg	65 min
May 18, 9:48 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Pittsburg	42 min
May 18, 9:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Muskogee, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	36 min
May 18, 10:00 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	McIntosh	30 min
May 18, 10:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Haskell, Latimer, McIntosh, Muskogee, Pittsburg and 1 more	57 min
May 18, 10:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Mayes, Muskogee, Okmulgee, Rogers, Tulsa and 1 more	38 min
May 18, 10:23 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Muskogee, Wagoner	37 min
May 18, 10:28 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Cherokee, McIntosh, Muskogee, Sequoyah	47 min
May 18, 10:37 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Mayes, Muskogee, Wagoner	38 min
May 18, 10:42 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Rogers	3 hr
May 18, 10:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Delaware, Haskell, LeFlore, Mayes and 3 more	48 min
May 18, 11:00 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee	45 min
May 18, 11:01 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Delaware, Mayes, Wagoner	44 min
May 18, 11:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Mayes, Ottawa, Rogers	48 min
May 18, 11:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore, Pittsburg, Pushmataha	48 min
May 18, 11:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Delaware, Sequoyah	59 min
May 18, 11:32 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Delaware	43 min
May 18, 11:34 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Adair, Delaware	41 min
May 18, 11:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Pittsburg	48 min
May 18, 11:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	LeFlore, Sequoyah	42 min
May 18, 11:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Latimer, LeFlore, Pittsburg, Pushmataha	62 min
May 19, 2:16 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pawnee	44 min
May 19, 3:26 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	34 min
May 19, 3:58 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	32 min
May 19, 8:46 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Osage	23 hr
May 19, 8:46 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Osage, Tulsa	62 hr
May 19, 8:46 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Tulsa	71 hr
May 19, 8:46 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Creek	38 hr
May 19, 8:56 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Washington	71 hr
May 19, 8:56 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Rogers, Tulsa	4 days
May 19, 8:56 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Ottawa	5 days
May 19, 10:57 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Tulsa	33 min
May 19, 11:07 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	23 min
May 19, 1:18 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Muskogee	27 min
May 19, 1:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Cherokee, Delaware, Mayes	43 min
May 19, 2:10 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Delaware, Mayes	26 min
May 19, 2:21 PM CDT	River Flood Advisory	TSA	Cherokee	3 days
May 19, 2:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Delaware	41 min
May 19, 3:46 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Adair	29 min
May 19, 4:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okfuskee, Okmulgee	27 min
May 19, 4:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Tulsa, Wagoner	42 min
May 19, 4:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	48 min
May 19, 5:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Wagoner	29 min
May 19, 5:15 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Mayes, Okmulgee, Wagoner	30 min
May 19, 5:16 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Creek, Mayes, Muskogee, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Rogers and 2 more	119 min
May 19, 5:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Delaware, Mayes	2 min
May 19, 5:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Delaware, Mayes	51 min
May 19, 6:04 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Creek, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	8 hr
May 19, 6:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Delaware, Mayes, Muskogee, Ottawa, Wagoner	60 min
May 19, 6:19 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okfuskee	26 min
May 19, 6:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	62 min
May 19, 12:08 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more	67 min
May 19, 12:13 AM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll	47 min
May 19, 3:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll	28 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Oklahoma, 2017 Every special weather statement in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.