Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
529 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A cold front will sweep southeast across the area overnight
accompanied by a line of showers and thunderstorms. VFR conditions
will prevail following the passage of the front late tonight and
Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 256 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Potent upper level storm system shifting east into the central plains
this afternoon. Very strong south winds continue ahead of system
with frequent gusts of 35-45 mph across northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. The gusty winds will likely persist through
mid evening ahead of approaching cold front which will move into
far northeast Oklahoma early this evening. The wind advisory
therefore has been extended until 9 pm.

Atmosphere continues to destabilize with a few breaks in the cloud
cover and as low level moisture continues to surge north. Could
see enough forcing/weakening of the cap for isolated thunderstorm
development by late afternoon across far northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. Any storms that develop would likely be
supercells with the threat for very large hail and tornadoes.

The more widespread severe threat will occur along the cold front
with thunderstorms expanding in coverage and becoming more linear
with time along frontal boundary through the evening hours.
Instability/shear profiles will support a QLCS through the event
with damaging winds/large hail and a few tornadoes. The main
convective line is expected to be along the I-44 corridor around
the 9-10 pm time frame, pushing southeast to near a MLC/FYV line
by midnight. The severe threat should end around 3 am as the cold
front sweeps south of area into the ARKLATX region.

A very dry airmass behind the front will support a limited fire
danger on Tuesday as westerly winds persist north of surface high.
Gusty south winds will begin to increase on Wednesday and with
limited moisture return, fire weather will once again be a
concern.

Precipitation chances return Thursday into Friday under northwest
flow aloft and as a front stalls across the area. A stronger
upper wave will move out of the northern Rockies for the early
part of the weekend with showers/thunderstorms chances increasing
with cold front.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011.

&&

AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
446 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071115-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
446 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...early evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...early-mid evening.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...northeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...this evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop early
this evening across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas ahead
of the cold front that continues moving through the central Plains.
Strong wind fields at the surface and upper levels...will combine
with moderate instability and support severe storm development.

If discrete storms are able to form ahead of the front early this
evening, they would quickly become supercells with the potential for
large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. The tornado threat looks
to be maximized during the early to mid evening hours across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. However, given the strong
low level wind shear, the threat for severe weather, including
isolated tornadoes, will persist until the cold front clears the
area.

In addition to the threat of severe storms...strong winds will
continue in advance of the cold front. Sustained south winds of 20
to 30 miles per hour will be common with gusts of around 45 mph
likely. This will of course make ongoing wildfire suppression
efforts challenging.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...Fire Weather Potential.
WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential and Fire Weather Potential.
THURSDAY through Saturday...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Fire weather is a concern through the rest of the week, especially
for areas which receive little or no rain today. Thunderstorm
chances return by the end of the week.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers should follow the latest forecasts concerning
the severe storm and fire potential today and tonight.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
741 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

OKZ058-063-070200-
Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-
741 PM CST MON MAR 6 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE AND
SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CST...

At 741 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located over Bernice State
Park, moving northeast at 65 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations in or near the path include...
Grove...                          Fairland...
Afton...                          Bernice...
Wyandotte...                      Honey Creek State Park...
Bernice State Park...             Cleora...
Twin Bridges State Park...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 296 and 299.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 300 AM CST for northeastern
Oklahoma.

LAT...LON 3664 9462 3652 9492 3662 9500 3669 9500
      3690 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 239DEG 57KT 3664 9490

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
835 PM CST MON MAR 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TSTM WND GST     FORAKER                 36.87N 96.57W
03/06/2017  M67 MPH          OSAGE              OK   MESONET

&&

JDS