Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Tulsa, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
943 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Tornado watch #64 continues through 3 am...and have recently added
Pittsburg and Latimer counties to the watch. Cold front has
entered northeast Oklahoma this evening...with a line of storms
currently situated along the boundary that extended southwest from
northwest Craig county through northwest Creek county...moving
east. Well ahead of the front...other discrete storms were across
northwest Arkansas...and carried a slightly higher tornadic
potential.

Front will continue to move east overnight. Have tailored pops
accordingly...with most precip to be east of the area after
09-10z. For the most part have left temperatures as they
are...with most tweaks coming to pops and winds based off of
recent trends.

Updated ZFP/AFM/PFM out shortly.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
446 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071115-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
446 PM CST Mon Mar 6 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...early evening.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Significant.
	AREA...eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...early-mid evening.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...northeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...this evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
	ONSET...ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop early
this evening across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas ahead
of the cold front that continues moving through the central Plains.
Strong wind fields at the surface and upper levels...will combine
with moderate instability and support severe storm development.

If discrete storms are able to form ahead of the front early this
evening, they would quickly become supercells with the potential for
large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. The tornado threat looks
to be maximized during the early to mid evening hours across
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. However, given the strong
low level wind shear, the threat for severe weather, including
isolated tornadoes, will persist until the cold front clears the
area.

In addition to the threat of severe storms...strong winds will
continue in advance of the cold front. Sustained south winds of 20
to 30 miles per hour will be common with gusts of around 45 mph
likely. This will of course make ongoing wildfire suppression
efforts challenging.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...Fire Weather Potential.
WEDNESDAY...High Wind Potential and Fire Weather Potential.
THURSDAY through Saturday...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Fire weather is a concern through the rest of the week, especially
for areas which receive little or no rain today. Thunderstorm
chances return by the end of the week.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers should follow the latest forecasts concerning
the severe storm and fire potential today and tonight.

weather.gov/tulsa Contains additional information.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
953 PM CST MON MAR 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 E CENTRAILIA          36.80N 95.21W
03/06/2017  M66 MPH          CRAIG              OK   MESONET

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JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
957 PM CST MON MAR 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 PM     HAIL             3 ESE BUNCH             35.67N 94.71W
03/06/2017  E1.00 INCH       ADAIR              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL REPORTED JUST NORTH OF GREASY

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1003 PM CST MON MAR 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 PM     HAIL             7 W SAND SPRINGS        36.14N 96.23W
03/06/2017  E1.00 INCH       TULSA              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            HIGHWAY 412 AND 209TH WEST AVENUE

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1007 PM CST MON MAR 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 E CENTRAILIA          36.80N 95.21W
03/06/2017  M60 MPH          CRAIG              OK   MESONET

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1019 PM CST MON MAR 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1016 PM     HAIL             SHAMROCK                35.91N 96.58W
03/06/2017  E1.25 INCH       CREEK              OK   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT

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JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1021 PM CST MON MAR 06 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1021 PM     HAIL             3 E SAPULPA             36.00N 96.06W
03/06/2017  E1.00 INCH       CREEK              OK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JDS