Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Topeka, KS

832 
WWUS53 KTOP 220226
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
926 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

KSC045-087-220300-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-170822T0300Z/
Jefferson-Douglas-
926 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

At 925 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lawrence,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Lawrence, Eudora, Perry, Lecompton and Williamstown. 

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 195 and 205.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3890 9535 3897 9538 3906 9541 3912 9519
      3897 9519 3896 9517 3898 9516 3897 9513
      3897 9511 3896 9510 3896 9508 3898 9508
      3899 9506 3895 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 255DEG 39KT 3900 9525 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

27

032 
WWUS53 KTOP 220247
SVSTOP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
947 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

KSC045-087-220255-
/O.CAN.KTOP.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-170822T0300Z/
Jefferson-Douglas-
947 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND
NORTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3890 9535 3897 9538 3906 9541 3912 9519
      3897 9519 3896 9517 3898 9516 3897 9513
      3897 9511 3896 9510 3896 9508 3898 9508
      3899 9506 3895 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 255DEG 39KT 3906 9497 

$$

27

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
642 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

19Z water vapor imagery shows a low amplitude shortwave moving
through the northern plains. A weak MCV from the early morning
convection has become difficult to discern over northeast KS and
likely has sheared out. Otherwise water vapor imagery shows a plume
of mid level moisture from wester TX through northeast KS. At the
surface, a prefrontal trough was noted from northwest KS into the
eastern Dakotas with a cold front over western ND and into eastern
WY.

For tonight models still show some weak vorticity advection ahead of
the northern plains shortwave and some frontogenesis overnight with
the front. With the very moist airmass in place, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to become widespread this evening and
move through the area overnight. Models have trended slightly faster
with the frontal system and some of the high resolution models show
precip exiting the forecast area to the southeast by 7 am Tuesday.
The clouds and shower activity have slowed down the destabilization
of the boundary layer. But RAP analysis suggests MLCAPE values over
2000 J/kg beginning to develop. Deep layer shear remains a little
marginal, but look to be good enough that if a discrete storm were
able to persist it could go on to produce some severe hail and
winds. Aside from that, the main focus remains on the heavy rain
potential. With PWs still progged over 2 inches, the airmass looked
primed for heavy rainfall. Although with the model trends of a
faster progression to the frontal system, the risk for flash
flooding looks to have diminished somewhat. While the ensemble means
for QPF have also lessened, a few members continue to show the
potential for isolated heavy to excessive rain. Because of this will
maintain the flash flood watch as is.

Showers and thunderstorms should be moving southeast of the area
Tuesday morning and have POPs decreasing with virtually a dry
forecast for much of the area by noon. The stronger cold air
advection looks to hold off until late morning or early afternoon so
Lows tonight are expected to remain muggy with readings in the upper
60s to around 70. Have trended highs cooler by a degree or two with
models showing decent low level cold air advection through the
afternoon. Have forecast highs in the lower and middle 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

By Tuesday night, the mid-level trough will be shifting into the
northeastern U.S. with surface high pressure sliding southward from
the Northern Plains into the central U.S.  The region will remain
under the influence of this surface high pressure and northwesterly
flow aloft through Thursday, resulting in dry conditions and
temperatures cooler than the seasonal normals with highs in the low
80s.

By Thursday night, models show a mid-level ridge briefly building
into the central U.S. ahead of a mid-level trough diving into the
Pacific Northwest.  Models are in decent agreement with showing an
embedded shortwave developing within this ridge Thursday night and
gradually tracking across the CWA Friday and Friday night.  The mid-
level trough over the Pacific Northwest will get pushed back into
Canada as a broad mid-level ridge builds across the western U.S.
Saturday through Monday.  The central U.S. will remain under
northwesterly flow aloft into early next week, with models showing
additional embedded waves developing within the mid-level flow.  As
a result, some periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms will
be possible from Thursday night into Sunday, with some isolated
precipitation possibly continuing into early next week. Temperatures
through the weekend and into early next week will remain below the
seasonal normals, with highs staying in the low 80s and low
temperatures in the low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Scattered TSRA developing north and west of terminals currently.
Radar trends has the cluster through KMHK by 02Z with no
reduction in flight category. A little more uncertain how the band
of TSRA evolves as it moves eastward towards KTOP/KFOE. Sfc
analysis shows a frontal boundary in the area with ample
instability, despite meager amounts of wind shear. Have therefore
kept a mentioned of VCTS with scattered showers through 08Z when
short term models clear the convection eastward. Next focus is the
convection that develops along the front currently in Nebraska in
the 06-09Z time frame. Current indications is that coverage may
not be as widespread as previous guidance. Nonetheless kept the
mention of TSRA with MVFR stratus developing along and just behind
the boundary through 16Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-035>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wolters
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Prieto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
307 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-222015-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
307 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms are forecast to become widespread this evening and
move southeast across the region. As storms develop, there is a
risk for some large hail and strong winds. However storms should
develop into a large cluster with locally heavy rainfall becoming
the primary concern. Some isolated spots could end up with around
2 inches of rain by Tuesday morning. Because of this a flash flood
watch remains in effect for areas along and east of a line from
Abilene to Seneca.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should not be needed this afternoon or tonight, but are
encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Wolters

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
845 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

KSZ026-040-220215-
Jefferson-Douglas-
845 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND
NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 845 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lecompton, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northern Lawrence, Perry, McLouth, Lecompton and Williamstown.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 192 and 204.

LAT...LON 3913 9519 3900 9519 3893 9538 3907 9550
      3927 9518 3913 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 237DEG 35KT 3904 9536

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
856 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NORTONVILLE             39.42N 95.33W
08/21/2017                   JEFFERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DITCHES OVERFLOWING, WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
            IN FIELDS NEARBY HOUSE. ESTIMATED RAINFALL
            OF 4.82" STORM TOTAL.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
857 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0847 PM     FLASH FLOOD      NORTONVILLE             39.42N 95.33W
08/21/2017                   JEFFERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER FLOWING OVER ROADWAYS. RELAYED REPORT
            OF 3.5" OF RAINFALL 2 MILES EAST OF
            NORTONVILLE.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
909 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND GST     OZAWKIE                 39.23N 95.47W
08/21/2017  E70 MPH          JEFFERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SMB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
909 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

KSZ026-039-040-220245-
Shawnee-Jefferson-Douglas-
909 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...
SOUTHEASTERN SHAWNEE AND NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM
CDT...

At 908 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Clinton Lake, moving east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lawrence, Eudora, Richland, Perry, Lecompton, Clinton, Clinton Lake
and Williamstown.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 186 and 205.

LAT...LON 3887 9554 3902 9557 3912 9519 3897 9519
      3896 9517 3898 9516 3897 9513 3897 9511
      3895 9509 3896 9508 3898 9508 3899 9506
      3895 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0208Z 254DEG 42KT 3895 9546

27

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
910 PM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W OZAWKIE             39.23N 95.50W
08/21/2017                   JEFFERSON          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2 INH TREE LIMB DOWN.

&&

SMB