Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Topeka, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
417 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

At 09Z WV imagery shows upper trof pivoting through the area pushing
along surface cold boundary through north central and northeast
Kansas at this hour.  LLJ is in the process of veering to the east
of the area providing convergence for showers and storms with very
heavy rainfall (common amounts of 2-4 inches in some areas) over
very southern and southeastern portions of the area into west
central Missouri. Cold boundary is ushering in a very much needed
dry airmass shunting modified tropical airmass to the east and
southeast of the area.  A narrow band of low level stratus will move
in behind the front but shouldn't be long lasting as clearing will
take place quickly into the morning on Tuesday over the region as
high pressure settles into the area.  Lingering showers in
southeastern portions of the CWA should exit completely after mid
morning time frame.

Northwest flow regime aloft will take hold with modified Canadian
airmass cooling high temps Tuesday and Wednesday into the low to mid
80s.  With dry dewpoints, low temps on Tuesday night could dip into
the mid 50s especially near the KS/NE border.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

The long term forecast features northwest flow with mid level ridge
in place and main Westerly energy well north of the area.  A few
minor embedded waves could help upslope flow induced storms on the
foothills of the Rockies move off into the High Plains into central
portions of KS/NE.  Most long range guidance at this time keeps
weaker flow aloft in place and instability well west of the area.
Therefore, only small chance POPs are in the forecast and mainly for
western portions of the CWA Friday and Saturday time frames perhaps
carrying into Sunday.

Overall, temps for the period will be slightly below normal in the
low to mid 80s and lows near normal in the low to mid 60s.  An
overall dry pattern will still be welcome in light of recent
rainfalls.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Scattered TSRA are gradually clearing KTOP/KFOE towards the east
with improving conditions to VFR. Could still see a few storms in
vicinity of the front as it passes in the 08 to 10Z time frame at
KTOP/KFOE with a mention of temporary MVFR ceilings. KMHK has a
lesser chance of seeing convection overnight. MVFR stratus should
be short lived as increasing dry air advection shunts the low
level moisture out of the area by 15Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ024-026-
038>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

SHORT TERM...Drake
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Prieto

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
425 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-230930-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
425 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of east
central Kansas through early morning. Heavy rainfall overnight has
resulted in flash flooding over eastern portions of the CWA. A
few warnings remain in effect at this time. Rainfall totals have
ranged anywhere from 1 to 5 inches in these areas. An additional
inch is still expected over portions of east central Kansas
through mid morning. A Flash Flood Watch also remains in effect
through Tuesday morning for the eastern and southeastern portions
of the outlook area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
143 AM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     FLOOD            2 S OTTAWA              38.59N 95.26W
08/22/2017                   FRANKLIN           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MINOR STREET FLOODING ALONG 15TH STREET
            BETWEEN OAK AND MULBERRY STREETS.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
229 AM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017

KSZ023-024-026-038>040-054>056-220800-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Lyon-Pottawatomie-Jefferson-Douglas-Jackson-
Franklin-Osage-
229 AM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...
JEFFERSON...SHAWNEE...DOUGLAS...EASTERN WABAUNSEE...NORTHERN OSAGE...
SOUTHEASTERN POTTAWATOMIE...SOUTHERN JACKSON AND NORTHEASTERN LYON
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

At 228 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northeast of Lawrence to near Keene.
Movement was south at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Topeka, Lawrence, Baldwin City, Carbondale, Valley Falls, Rossville,
Oskaloosa, Eskridge, Tecumseh, Eudora, St. Marys, Richland, Dover,
Silver Lake, Auburn, Overbrook, Burlingame, Perry, McLouth and
Meriden.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 between mile markers 336 and 355.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 146 and 205.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3863 9607 3934 9618 3942 9527 3942 9518
      3897 9519 3896 9517 3898 9516 3896 9508
      3898 9508 3884 9505 3876 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0728Z 351DEG 25KT 3903 9519 3894 9601

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
244 AM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0236 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSE MCLOUTH           39.16N 95.19W
08/22/2017                   JEFFERSON          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SWIFT WATER RESCUE OF ONE PERSON UNDERWAY.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 AM CDT TUE AUG 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WELLSVILLE              38.72N 95.08W
08/22/2017                   FRANKLIN           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLASH FLOODING OF SEVERAL STREETS IN
            WELLSVILLE.

&&