Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2017

Tornado Watch 95

March 28, 201718 counties in Oklahoma; 39 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Mar 28, 2017, 3:40 PM CDT for 18 counties in Oklahoma; 39 counties in Texas. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 28, 2017, 3:40 PM CDT (20:40 UTC)
Expired
Mar 28, 2017, 11:00 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 57 counties

Beckham County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Carter County, OK, Comanche County, OK, Cotton County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Grady County, OK, Greer County, OK, Harmon County, OK, Jackson County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Love County, OK, McClain County, OK, Murray County, OK, Stephens County, OK, Tillman County, OK, Washita County, OK, Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Childress County, TX, Clay County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Cottle County, TX, Dickens County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Erath County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Foard County, TX, Hall County, TX, Hardeman County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Hood County, TX, Jack County, TX, Jones County, TX, Kent County, TX, King County, TX, Knox County, TX, Montague County, TX, Motley County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Stonewall County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Wichita County, TX, Wilbarger County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX

The radar

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 73 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
90%

Warnings issued inside it

64 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 28, 4:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTFisher43 min
Mar 28, 4:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTFisher, Jones38 min
Mar 28, 4:10 PM CDTTornado WarningLUBHall, Motley35 min
Mar 28, 4:10 PM CDTTornado WarningSJTNolan, Taylor35 min
Mar 28, 4:24 PM CDTTornado WarningLUBDickens, Kent, King, Stonewall36 min
Mar 28, 4:30 PM CDTTornado WarningSJTFisher, Jones30 min
Mar 28, 4:34 PM CDTTornado WarningLUBCottle, Dickens, Motley26 min
Mar 28, 4:38 PM CDTTornado WarningSJTJones, Taylor37 min
Mar 28, 4:39 PM CDTTornado WarningLUBHall36 min
Mar 28, 4:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBKing, Stonewall34 min
Mar 28, 4:52 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedLUBCottle, Dickens, King23 min
Mar 28, 4:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBFloyd, Motley34 min
Mar 28, 5:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTFisher, Jones, Nolan, Taylor40 min
Mar 28, 5:08 PM CDTTornado WarningLUBCottle, King37 min
Mar 28, 5:12 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBKing, Stonewall33 min
Mar 28, 5:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBCottle, King31 min
Mar 28, 5:15 PM CDTTornado WarningLUBHall30 min
Mar 28, 5:15 PM CDTTornado WarningSJTJones, Shackelford30 min
Mar 28, 5:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBMotley23 min
Mar 28, 5:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNFoard, Knox38 min
Mar 28, 5:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTHaskell52 min
Mar 28, 5:41 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedSJTHaskell, Jones, Shackelford34 min
Mar 28, 5:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTHaskell, Jones48 min
Mar 28, 5:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBKing, Stonewall30 min
Mar 28, 5:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBCottle, Hall, Motley30 min
Mar 28, 5:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNFoard, Hardeman, Knox51 min
Mar 28, 5:59 PM CDTTornado WarningOUNFoard, Hardeman31 min
Mar 28, 6:08 PM CDTTornado Warning Tornado observedConsiderable damage threatSJTHaskell, Jones37 min
Mar 28, 6:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNWilbarger44 min
Mar 28, 6:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBeckham, Greer, Harmon38 min
Mar 28, 6:35 PM CDTTornado WarningSJTHaskell40 min
Mar 28, 6:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNJackson, Tillman49 min
Mar 28, 6:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBaylor, Knox51 min
Mar 28, 7:00 PM CDTTornado WarningOUNBaylor, Knox30 min
Mar 28, 7:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNCaddo, Comanche, Greer, Jackson, Kiowa, Tillman and 1 more39 min
Mar 28, 7:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNCaddo, Canadian51 min
Mar 28, 7:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBaylor, Knox50 min
Mar 28, 7:44 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningOUNBlaine, Caddo, Canadian, Kiowa, Washita4 hr
Mar 28, 7:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTHaskell44 min
Mar 28, 8:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNArcher, Baylor, Wichita, Wilbarger39 min
Mar 28, 8:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBlaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Custer, Grady and 3 more41 min
Mar 28, 8:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTHaskell21 min
Mar 28, 8:27 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUBGarza, Kent19 min
Mar 28, 8:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNKnox45 min
Mar 28, 8:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNCotton, Tillman47 min
Mar 28, 8:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTFisher, Jones, Nolan, Taylor51 min
Mar 28, 8:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBlaine, Caddo, Canadian, Cleveland, Grady, Kingfisher and 3 more47 min
Mar 28, 9:06 PM CDTTornado WarningSJTNolan24 min
Mar 28, 9:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTCoke, Concho, Runnels, Tom Green38 min
Mar 28, 9:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNBaylor, Foard, Knox, Wilbarger50 min
Mar 28, 9:13 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningOUNCaddo, Comanche, Cotton3 hr
Mar 28, 9:16 PM CDTTornado WarningSJTNolan29 min
Mar 28, 9:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNComanche, Cotton, Tillman49 min
Mar 28, 9:30 PM CDTTornado WarningSJTFisher, Jones, Nolan, Taylor30 min
Mar 28, 9:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNCaddo, Comanche, Grady, Stephens52 min
Mar 28, 9:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTColeman, Runnels49 min
Mar 28, 9:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTFisher, Jones, Nolan, Taylor64 min
Mar 28, 9:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNJackson, Tillman51 min
Mar 28, 10:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNCanadian, Cleveland, Grady, McClain, Oklahoma38 min
Mar 28, 10:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNComanche, Cotton46 min
Mar 28, 10:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTCallahan, Haskell, Jones, Shackelford, Taylor, Throckmorton61 min
Mar 28, 10:29 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningOUNCleveland, Grady, McClain, Oklahoma6 hr
Mar 28, 10:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOUNWilbarger50 min
Mar 28, 11:00 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningOUNComanche, Cotton, Tillman3 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 210 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2017-03-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 12:00Z on 2017-03-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 229 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
772 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
229 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
245 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

485 
WWUS20 KWNS 282038
SEL5  
SPC WW 282038
OKZ000-TXZ000-290400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 95
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southwest and south-central Oklahoma
  western North Texas

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...As a warm front continues to spread northward and
low-level moisture continues to increase, the potential for
tornadoes should increase in addition to increasing risks for large
hail and damaging winds across western North Texas into southwest
and eventually south-central Oklahoma. These will be initially via
semi-discrete supercells, with a more linear mode and widespread
damaging wind risk later this evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Fort Sill
OK to 35 miles west of Brownwood TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93...WW 94...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 21030.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 28, 9:30 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCTexas3 hr
Mar 28, 2:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Comanche, Cotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Love and 2 more3 hr
Mar 28, 2:44 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBeaver, Beckham, Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Greer and 8 more2 hr
Mar 28, 5:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCComanche, Cotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Kiowa, Stephens and 1 more89 min
Mar 28, 12:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBailey, Borden, Briscoe, Castro, Cochran, Cottle and 23 more67 min
Mar 28, 12:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArmstrong, Briscoe, Carson, Castro, Childress, Collingsworth and 34 more8 hr
Mar 28, 1:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoke, Crane, Crockett, Ector, Glasscock, Howard and 8 more95 min
Mar 28, 1:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBorden, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Concho, Crockett and 24 more8 hr
Mar 28, 6:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Burnet, Edwards, Gillespie, Kerr, Kimble and 7 more116 min
Mar 28, 6:30 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCoke, Crockett, Glasscock, Howard, Irion, Mitchell and 4 more90 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Texas, 2017Tornado Watches in Oklahoma, 2017Every tornado watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.