Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
328 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

...Severe weather expected this afternoon and tonight...

There is a moderate risk of severe weather this afternoon and
overnight along and north of I-20; with an elevated risk across the
rest of West Central Texas.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from Ozona to San
Angelo to Brownwood, then northward into the Big Country this
afternoon.  Large hail, damaging winds, and localized flooding are
possible. There is also the threat of an isolated tornado this
afternoon and evening, mainly in the Big Country.

A second line of thunderstorms will move east from the Permian
Basin...into western sections of the Concho Valley and Big Country
this evening, then across the rest of West Central Texas overnight.
This second line of storms should be along a Sonora to San Angelo to
Abilene line 9 to 11 PM.  Winds will shift southwest after the line
of storms moves through. Severe weather is also expected with this
second line. A very unstable atmosphere is in place with MUCAPES of
3000 J/KG along with 0-6 KM bulk shear values of 45 to 60 KTS.

Storms should exit eastern counties by daybreak Wednesday. A few
wraparound showers are possible Wednesday afternoon, north of I-20,
as the upper low moves east across North Texas. Downslope southwest
to west winds should allow temperatures to rise into the upper 70s
to lower 80s.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

Some wrap-around showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the northern Big Country Wedneday night as an upper low
moves east our of the Panhandle. Highs on Wednesday will be in
the mid 70 to upper 70s across the northern half of the area to
near 80 over the southern half of the area. A cold front will
move through the region Wednesday night with morning lows on
Thursday in the upper 40s. Slightly cooler temperatures are
expected behind the cold front on Thursday, with highs in the low
to mid 70s. Upper level ridging will build into the area in the
wake of the exiting upper low with dry conditions and afternoon
highs warming into the mid and upper 80s on Friday.

The next upper level low will move over New Mexico on Saturday
bringing southwest winds aloft over the forecast area. There will
be a chance of showers and thunderstorms over most of the forecast
area Saturday through Sunday night as the upper low moves across
the forecast area. Saturday highs will be around 80s with lower
70s on Sunday behind a Pacific cold front.Saturday and Sunday lows
will be in the mid 50s.

Monday and Tuesday will be dry with morning lows in the lower
50s. Afternoon highs on Monday and Tuesday will warm into the
upper 70s and lower 80s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 54  77  48  72 /  80  10  10   0
San Angelo 	 53  80  48  78 /  80   5   0   0
Junction 	 54  81  49  76 /  90   5   5   0
Brownwood 	 54  79  49  73 /  90  10   5   5
Sweetwater 	 53  74  46  74 /  70  20  10   0
Ozona      	 52  78  48  77 /  80   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
250 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

TXZ065-066-072-282015-
Runnels TX-Tom Green TX-Coke TX-
250 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COKE AND
NORTHWESTERN RUNNELS COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 250 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tennyson, or 15 miles southeast of Robert Lee, moving north at 45
mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Maverick around 255 PM CDT.
  Bronte and Norton around 300 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Wilmeth and Us-
277 Near The Tom Green-Coke County Line.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3169 10039 3204 10024 3197 9999 3162 10022
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 198DEG 39KT 3178 10025

Woodward

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
335 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     HAIL             5 SE BLACKWELL          32.04N 100.25W
03/28/2017  E0.88 INCH       COKE               TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1700008

WILEY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
336 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

TXZ054-066-127-282115-
Runnels TX-Nolan TX-Taylor TX-
336 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN NOLAN AND SOUTHWESTERN
TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 335 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hylton, or 7 miles northeast of Blackwell, moving north at 45 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Nolan around 345 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Camp Butman, Us-
277 Near The Runnels-Nolan-
Taylor County Intersection, The Intersection Of Highway 70 And Ranch
Road 53 and Lake Sweetwater.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3241 9999 3204 10015 3205 10023 3208 10024
      3208 10036 3245 10038
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 189DEG 39KT 3218 10023

MC