Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
328 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

...Severe weather expected this afternoon and tonight...

There is a moderate risk of severe weather this afternoon and
overnight along and north of I-20; with an elevated risk across the
rest of West Central Texas.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from Ozona to San
Angelo to Brownwood, then northward into the Big Country this
afternoon.  Large hail, damaging winds, and localized flooding are
possible. There is also the threat of an isolated tornado this
afternoon and evening, mainly in the Big Country.

A second line of thunderstorms will move east from the Permian
Basin...into western sections of the Concho Valley and Big Country
this evening, then across the rest of West Central Texas overnight.
This second line of storms should be along a Sonora to San Angelo to
Abilene line 9 to 11 PM.  Winds will shift southwest after the line
of storms moves through. Severe weather is also expected with this
second line. A very unstable atmosphere is in place with MUCAPES of
3000 J/KG along with 0-6 KM bulk shear values of 45 to 60 KTS.

Storms should exit eastern counties by daybreak Wednesday. A few
wraparound showers are possible Wednesday afternoon, north of I-20,
as the upper low moves east across North Texas. Downslope southwest
to west winds should allow temperatures to rise into the upper 70s
to lower 80s.

04

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)

Some wrap-around showers and thunderstorms will be possible
across the northern Big Country Wedneday night as an upper low
moves east our of the Panhandle. Highs on Wednesday will be in
the mid 70 to upper 70s across the northern half of the area to
near 80 over the southern half of the area. A cold front will
move through the region Wednesday night with morning lows on
Thursday in the upper 40s. Slightly cooler temperatures are
expected behind the cold front on Thursday, with highs in the low
to mid 70s. Upper level ridging will build into the area in the
wake of the exiting upper low with dry conditions and afternoon
highs warming into the mid and upper 80s on Friday.

The next upper level low will move over New Mexico on Saturday
bringing southwest winds aloft over the forecast area. There will
be a chance of showers and thunderstorms over most of the forecast
area Saturday through Sunday night as the upper low moves across
the forecast area. Saturday highs will be around 80s with lower
70s on Sunday behind a Pacific cold front.Saturday and Sunday lows
will be in the mid 50s.

Monday and Tuesday will be dry with morning lows in the lower
50s. Afternoon highs on Monday and Tuesday will warm into the
upper 70s and lower 80s.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 54  77  48  72 /  80  10  10   0
San Angelo 	 53  80  48  78 /  80   5   0   0
Junction 	 54  81  49  76 /  90   5   5   0
Brownwood 	 54  79  49  73 /  90  10   5   5
Sweetwater 	 53  74  46  74 /  70  20  10   0
Ozona      	 52  78  48  77 /  80   5   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
106 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-291815-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
106 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening in the Big Country, along and north of I-20. There is
an enhanced risk of severe storms across the rest of West Central
Texas this afternoon and overnight.

Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are expected to develop
along and north of Sterling City...Ballinger...Brownwood line
after 3 PM this afternoon. Large hail, damaging winds and
localized flooding is possible. An isolated tornado is also
possible. A second, north to south line of severe storms, is
expected to develop early this evening in Crockett county, western
Concho valley and Big Country...then move east across West
Central Texas overnight. These storms will also be capable of
large hail, damaging winds and localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible
Saturday night through Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon into the evening
hours.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
501 PM CDT TUE MAR 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0452 PM     TORNADO          4 WSW TYE               32.44N  99.94W
03/28/2017                   TAYLOR             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN OBSERVED BY DYESS AFB

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1700014

WILEY