Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Watches in 2017

Tornado Watch 501

October 14, 20174 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Oct 14, 2017, 5:09 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 8 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 14, 2017, 5:09 PM CDT (22:09 UTC)
Expired
Oct 15, 2017, 1:00 AM CDT
In force
8 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 79 counties

Des Moines County, IA, Henry County, IA, Lee County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Adams County, IL, Brown County, IL, Bureau County, IL, Ford County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Grundy County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Iroquois County, IL, Kankakee County, IL, Kendall County, IL, Knox County, IL, LaSalle County, IL, Lee County, IL, Livingston County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Mason County, IL, McDonough County, IL, McLean County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Stark County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Warren County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Adair County, MO, Audrain County, MO, Bates County, MO, Boone County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clark County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Daviess County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Henry County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Knox County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Marion County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Platte County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Shelby County, MO, Sullivan County, MO

The radar

The Lincoln radar (KILX), 150 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

34 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 14, 5:17 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNHancock43 min
Oct 14, 5:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNHenderson, Warren79 min
Oct 14, 5:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXJohnson, Linn, Miami46 min
Oct 14, 5:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCarroll, Clay, Jackson, Lafayette, Ray46 min
Oct 14, 5:31 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNHancock44 min
Oct 14, 5:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXClay, Jackson37 min
Oct 14, 5:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXKnox45 min
Oct 14, 5:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNMcDonough54 min
Oct 14, 6:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCass, Jackson, Johnson, Lafayette42 min
Oct 14, 6:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCarroll, Chariton, Lafayette, Saline30 min
Oct 14, 6:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCarroll, Jackson, Lafayette, Ray31 min
Oct 14, 6:25 PM CDTTornado WarningDVNHancock20 min
Oct 14, 6:28 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXKnox, Peoria, Stark47 min
Oct 14, 6:33 PM CDTTornado WarningILXSchuyler27 min
Oct 14, 6:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXLinn, Miami42 min
Oct 14, 6:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCarroll, Johnson, Lafayette25 min
Oct 14, 6:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXFulton, Peoria51 min
Oct 14, 6:56 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningILXKnox3 hr
Oct 14, 6:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXJohnson, Lafayette, Pettis, Saline31 min
Oct 14, 7:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXMarshall, Peoria, Tazewell, Woodford45 min
Oct 14, 7:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXLinn, Miami39 min
Oct 14, 7:26 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXMarshall, Peoria, Tazewell, Woodford49 min
Oct 14, 7:33 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTGrundy, LaSalle, Livingston57 min
Oct 14, 7:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXBates, Henry28 min
Oct 14, 7:58 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNHancock, Henderson, McDonough, Warren62 min
Oct 14, 8:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXMcLean33 min
Oct 14, 8:15 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXMarion, Monroe, Shelby45 min
Oct 14, 8:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTLivingston31 min
Oct 14, 8:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXAdams, Pike50 min
Oct 14, 8:43 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCooper, Pettis, Saline47 min
Oct 14, 9:04 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningEAXCooper, Howard41 min
Oct 14, 9:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXAudrain, Boone, Callaway, Cole, Moniteau39 min
Oct 14, 9:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXAudrain, Boone, Callaway, Cole, Gasconade, Moniteau and 2 more46 min
Oct 14, 10:02 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLOTCook, DeKalb, DuPage, Kane, Kendall, LaSalle and 2 more8 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 10.2 hours before the alert went out and 169 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2017-10-14Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2017-10-14The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 102 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
594 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
64 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
102 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
160 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

296 
WWUS20 KWNS 142206
SEL1  
SPC WW 142206
IAZ000-ILZ000-KSZ000-MOZ000-150600-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
510 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Iowa
  Northern and western Illinois
  Far eastern Kansas
  Northern Missouri

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning from 510
  PM until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Storms will continue to intensify in multiple pre-frontal
corridors across the region. Some hail will initially be possible,
but damaging winds should be the primary risk along with some
potential for tornadoes, particularly as low-level shear steadily
strengthens this evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 10 miles east southeast of Marseilles
IL to 15 miles west of Olathe KS. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 500...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24040.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 14, 3:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Brown, Cass, Fulton, Hancock, Henderson and 10 more2 hr
Oct 14, 6:01 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Cass, Cook, DeWitt, DuPage, Ford and 21 more89 min
Oct 14, 4:21 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Adams, Cass, Clarke, Fremont, Madison and 8 more84 min
Oct 14, 2:40 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Barber, Butler, Chase, Coffey, Dickinson and 28 more3 hr
Oct 14, 4:45 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 25 more5 hr
Oct 14, 6:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudrain, Bates, Benton, Boone, Callaway, Cole and 14 more97 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2017Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2017Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2017Every tornado watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.