Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Kansas City, MO

456 
WWUS53 KEAX 150114
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
814 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

MOC013-083-150122-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0209.000000T0000Z-171015T0115Z/
Henry MO-Bates MO-
814 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN HENRY AND BATES
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 815 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for west central
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3805 9410 3803 9411 3806 9413 3804 9420
      3805 9421 3804 9422 3804 9424 3805 9424
      3806 9455 3826 9461 3849 9389 3821 9388
      3821 9405 3803 9406 3803 9409
TIME...MOT...LOC 0112Z 254DEG 57KT 3832 9397 

$$

Leighton/Barham

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

Analysis and short range guidance continue to paint an ominous
couple of hours this afternoon and early this evening. A strong
upper shortwave trough is moving through the Rockies currently.
Strong mid to upper level flow ahead of this wave is helping to
produce 0-6km shear of 50 to 60 kts, mainly north of the surface
front. But this strong shear is expected to overspread the region
this evening. At the surface, the front is draped from central KS
through NW MO and southern IA. Ongoing convection in northern KS/MO,
aided by the LLJ, has helped to keep that area clouded and more
stable. But south of the cloud cover, temperatures are in the 80s
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. This highly
anomalous warm and moist environment is already yielding 1500 to
2500 J/kg SBCAPE. Forecast soundings show this to be capped still
so it will take the forcing of the front, which is very strong, to
help force the convection later this afternoon. Models forecast
the front to be moving into the northwestern portion of the
forecast area this afternoon and advance quickly southeastward as
the forcing from the upper wave encroaches upon the area.
Convection is likely to develop over central KS, along/ahead of
the front and then quickly track eastward into what should be a
very favorable environment for severe thunderstorms with CAPE in
the 2000 to 2500 J/KG range and 0-6km shear of 50+ kts. Even with
winds veered to the south-southwest, helicity values are in the
200 to 250 m^2/s^2 range and may even be higher. Forecast
hodographs show strong curvature in the 0-3 km range with much of
this in the 0-1km depth. 0-3km shear of 30 to 40 kts from west to
east favors mesovortex generation within any QLCS. Given the
strong shear, moderate instability and high helicity, tornadoes
look very possible from east central KS through central and
perhaps to northeastern MO. This would be in initial supercell
stages and also after the storms form into a QLCS. Also, given the
strong winds throughout the atmosphere, damaging winds look
likely. Additionally, with supercells or supercells within a line,
large will be possible.

The front that will force all of this activity should quickly move
through the forecast area. Have sped up the exit of the precipitation
tonight to match short-range model trends. Also, winds will increase
quite a bit in the wake of the front. Have increased winds to the 20
to 30 mph range with higher gusts. For now, I don't anticipate wind
advisory level winds, but there could be a few wind gusts of 40 mph
given the strong downward momentum behind the front. Winds should
decrease by sunrise as the area of potential vorticity shifts
eastward. But it will still be windy with temperatures struggling to
reach 60 degrees across the area.

The rest of the forecast looks dry with temperatures climbing into
the low to middle 70s, which is about 5 degrees above normal for
this time of year.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

Pre-front thunderstorms pushed through the terminals in the past
couple of hours. The actual cold front will move through later
this evening and might bring a secondary round of thunderstorms,
though this second line will likely be more scattered in nature.
Expect gusty northwest winds behind the front later tonight, with
northwest winds persisting through Sunday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
456 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
456 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A chance of thunderstorms will be possible this morning generally
north of the Interstate 70 corridor.

Additional thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening
along a cold front, and spread across the outlook area. Severe
weather will be possible, with damaging wind gusts the greatest
hazard, along with some potential for large hail and isolated
tornadoes.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
646 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N RANDOLPH            39.17N 94.49W
10/14/2017                   CLAY               MO   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT...12 INCH BRANCH DOWN AT
            WORLDS OF FUN. REPORTED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.
            TIME ESTIMATED TO RADAR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
659 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

MOZ043-044-150030-
Cass MO-Johnson MO-
659 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CASS AND
SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 659 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Harrisonville to 6 miles northwest of
Archie. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Harrisonville, Garden City, Archie, East Lynne, Kingsville, Gunn City
and La Tour.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for west central
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3848 9439 3847 9454 3870 9434 3878 9399
      3848 9413 3847 9438
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 245DEG 21KT 3868 9432 3855 9442

Leighton/Barham

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
709 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND GST     CLAYCOMO                39.21N 94.49W
10/14/2017  E60 MPH          CLAY               MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
713 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 PM     TSTM WND GST     GREENWOOD               38.85N 94.34W
10/14/2017  E65 MPH          JACKSON            MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
740 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

MOZ033-150115-
Randolph MO-
740 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL RANDOLPH COUNTY UNTIL 815
PM CDT...

At 740 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Moberly, moving east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Moberly, Huntsville and Cairo.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for central and
north central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3931 9267 3951 9257 3958 9230 3937 9231
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 255DEG 44KT 3945 9245

CDB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
742 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

MOZ039-040-150115-
Saline MO-Howard MO-
742 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HOWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN
SALINE COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 741 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Slater, moving east at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Fayette, Glasgow, Armstrong and Arrow Rock.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for central and
north central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3902 9292 3906 9294 3901 9300 3900 9308
      3917 9314 3923 9291 3922 9289 3924 9286
      3923 9285 3925 9284 3930 9261 3908 9252
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 255DEG 44KT 3911 9302

CDB