Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Kansas City, MO

458 
WWUS53 KEAX 150244
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
944 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

MOC053-089-150254-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0211.000000T0000Z-171015T0245Z/
Howard MO-Cooper MO-
944 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD AND
EASTERN COOPER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 945 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for central
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3868 9262 3869 9280 3897 9283 3897 9287
      3902 9288 3909 9251 3900 9256 3899 9256
      3898 9257 3893 9251 3891 9250
TIME...MOT...LOC 0244Z 258DEG 49KT 3901 9225 

$$

Leighton

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

Analysis and short range guidance continue to paint an ominous
couple of hours this afternoon and early this evening. A strong
upper shortwave trough is moving through the Rockies currently.
Strong mid to upper level flow ahead of this wave is helping to
produce 0-6km shear of 50 to 60 kts, mainly north of the surface
front. But this strong shear is expected to overspread the region
this evening. At the surface, the front is draped from central KS
through NW MO and southern IA. Ongoing convection in northern KS/MO,
aided by the LLJ, has helped to keep that area clouded and more
stable. But south of the cloud cover, temperatures are in the 80s
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. This highly
anomalous warm and moist environment is already yielding 1500 to
2500 J/kg SBCAPE. Forecast soundings show this to be capped still
so it will take the forcing of the front, which is very strong, to
help force the convection later this afternoon. Models forecast
the front to be moving into the northwestern portion of the
forecast area this afternoon and advance quickly southeastward as
the forcing from the upper wave encroaches upon the area.
Convection is likely to develop over central KS, along/ahead of
the front and then quickly track eastward into what should be a
very favorable environment for severe thunderstorms with CAPE in
the 2000 to 2500 J/KG range and 0-6km shear of 50+ kts. Even with
winds veered to the south-southwest, helicity values are in the
200 to 250 m^2/s^2 range and may even be higher. Forecast
hodographs show strong curvature in the 0-3 km range with much of
this in the 0-1km depth. 0-3km shear of 30 to 40 kts from west to
east favors mesovortex generation within any QLCS. Given the
strong shear, moderate instability and high helicity, tornadoes
look very possible from east central KS through central and
perhaps to northeastern MO. This would be in initial supercell
stages and also after the storms form into a QLCS. Also, given the
strong winds throughout the atmosphere, damaging winds look
likely. Additionally, with supercells or supercells within a line,
large will be possible.

The front that will force all of this activity should quickly move
through the forecast area. Have sped up the exit of the precipitation
tonight to match short-range model trends. Also, winds will increase
quite a bit in the wake of the front. Have increased winds to the 20
to 30 mph range with higher gusts. For now, I don't anticipate wind
advisory level winds, but there could be a few wind gusts of 40 mph
given the strong downward momentum behind the front. Winds should
decrease by sunrise as the area of potential vorticity shifts
eastward. But it will still be windy with temperatures struggling to
reach 60 degrees across the area.

The rest of the forecast looks dry with temperatures climbing into
the low to middle 70s, which is about 5 degrees above normal for
this time of year.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

Pre-front thunderstorms pushed through the terminals in the past
couple of hours. The actual cold front will move through later
this evening and might bring a secondary round of thunderstorms,
though this second line will likely be more scattered in nature.
Expect gusty northwest winds behind the front later tonight, with
northwest winds persisting through Sunday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
456 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
456 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A chance of thunderstorms will be possible this morning generally
north of the Interstate 70 corridor.

Additional thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening
along a cold front, and spread across the outlook area. Severe
weather will be possible, with damaging wind gusts the greatest
hazard, along with some potential for large hail and isolated
tornadoes.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
752 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E MOUND CITY          38.14N 94.81W
10/14/2017                   LINN               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF ROOF. ALSO REPORTED
            MULTIPLE POWER OUTAGES ACROSS LINN COUNTY.

&&

JW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
802 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0726 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S MOUND CITY          38.07N 94.81W
10/14/2017                   LINN               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN AT 300 RD AND K-7
            HIGHWAY. TIME ESTIMATED TO RADAR.

&&

JW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
817 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

MOZ054-150200-
Henry MO-
817 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN HENRY COUNTY UNTIL 900
PM CDT...

At 816 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Montrose, or 14 miles southwest of Clinton, moving east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clinton, Deepwater, Montrose, Coal, Brownington, Tightwad, La Due and
Truman Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for west central
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3821 9394 3822 9408 3834 9407 3837 9352
      3821 9352 3821 9354 3822 9356 3822 9357
      3820 9356
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 270DEG 39KT 3825 9400

Leighton/Barham

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
824 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ORRICK                  39.22N 94.12W
10/14/2017                   RAY                MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DELAYED REPORT. ROOF DAMAGE TO HOUSE IN
            ORRICK. TIME ESTIMATED TO RADAR.

&&

JW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
837 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

MOZ044>046-054-150230-
Johnson MO-Pettis MO-Cooper MO-Henry MO-
837 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HENRY...PETTIS...
SOUTHWESTERN COOPER AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM
CDT...

At 837 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Whiteman Afb, or 7 miles north of Windsor, moving east at 55 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sedalia, Windsor, Whiteman Air Force Base, La Monte, Pilot Grove,
Smithton, Green Ridge, Calhoun, Otterville, Whiteman Afb, Sedalia
Memorial Arpt and Clifton City.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for central and
west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3871 9366 3893 9290 3869 9292 3869 9306
      3853 9307 3854 9328 3851 9330 3851 9351
      3847 9352 3847 9365
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 258DEG 46KT 3863 9357

Leighton

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
854 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     TSTM WND GST     GREEN RIDGE             38.62N 93.41W
10/14/2017  E65 MPH          PETTIS             MO   PUBLIC

&&

JW