Alert archive / Missouri / River Flood Warnings in 2017

River Flood Warning 221, NWS Kansas City, MO

October 14, 2017Atchison County, Holt County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this river flood warning at Oct 14, 2017, 11:51 PM CDT for Atchison County, Holt County, Missouri. It took effect at Oct 15, 2017, 1:50 AM CDT. It was in force for 29 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 14, 2017, 11:51 PM CDT (04:51 UTC)
In effect from: Oct 15, 2017, 1:50 AM CDT
Expired: Oct 16, 2017, 7:03 AM CDT
In force: 29 hr
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Area: Storm-based polygon
Flood severity: Minor

Counties Atchison County, MO, Holt County, MO

The radar

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 136 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Tarkio River near Fairfax (FFXM7). The gauge peaked at 16.67 ft at Oct 15, 2017, 2:00 AM CDT.

Action stage: 12 ft
Minor stage: 17 ft
Moderate stage: 18 ft
Major stage: 25 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 06813000, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

727 
WGUS43 KEAX 150451
FLWEAX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1151 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

...The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill Mo has issued a 
flood warning for the following rivers in Missouri...

  Tarkio River at Fairfax affecting Atchison and Holt Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC005-087-160451-
/O.NEW.KEAX.FL.W.0221.171015T0650Z-171016T1203Z/
/FFXM7.1.ER.171015T0650Z.171015T0900Z.171015T1203Z.NO/
1151 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill Mo has issued a 

* Flood Warning for 
  The Tarkio River at Fairfax.
* until Monday morning.
* At 11:15 PM Saturday the stage was 15.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Sunday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 17.3 feet by Sunday morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Sunday morning.
* At 17.0 feet...Low-lying farm fields begin to flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Tarkio River
  Fairfax         17   15.9   Sat 11 PM   17.3 Sunday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4044 9543 4044 9534 4018 9538 4019 9546

  

$$

1 follow-up statement

760 
WGUS83 KEAX 150929
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
429 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Tarkio River at Fairfax affecting Atchison and Holt Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Big Creek at Blairstown affecting Cass...Henry and Johnson 
  Counties.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC037-083-101-160929-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0223.000000T0000Z-171017T0626Z/
/BLRM7.1.ER.171015T0626Z.171015T0900Z.171016T0626Z.UU/
429 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Creek at Blairstown.
* until late Monday night.
* At  4:00 AM Sunday the stage was 22.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 20.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by 
  early Monday morning.
* At 20.0 feet...The west bank of the creek begins to flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Big Creek
  Blairstown      20   22.9   Sun 04 AM   22.8 early this morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3873 9422 3875 9416 3857 9394 3840 9384 3840 9391

  

$$

MOC005-087-150959-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0221.000000T0000Z-171016T1203Z/
/FFXM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
429 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Tarkio River at Fairfax.
* At  3:15 AM Sunday the stage was 16.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 16.7 feet. The 
  river will continue to fall to 13.1 feet by Monday morning.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Tarkio River
  Fairfax         17   16.6   Sun 03 AM   16.5 early this morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 4044 9543 4044 9534 4018 9538 4019 9546

  

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Oct 14, 6:33 PM CDT, 5 hours 18 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 14, 6:33 PM CDT, 5 hours 18 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
633 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

Analysis and short range guidance continue to paint an ominous
couple of hours this afternoon and early this evening. A strong
upper shortwave trough is moving through the Rockies currently.
Strong mid to upper level flow ahead of this wave is helping to
produce 0-6km shear of 50 to 60 kts, mainly north of the surface
front. But this strong shear is expected to overspread the region
this evening. At the surface, the front is draped from central KS
through NW MO and southern IA. Ongoing convection in northern KS/MO,
aided by the LLJ, has helped to keep that area clouded and more
stable. But south of the cloud cover, temperatures are in the 80s
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s. This highly
anomalous warm and moist environment is already yielding 1500 to
2500 J/kg SBCAPE. Forecast soundings show this to be capped still
so it will take the forcing of the front, which is very strong, to
help force the convection later this afternoon. Models forecast
the front to be moving into the northwestern portion of the
forecast area this afternoon and advance quickly southeastward as
the forcing from the upper wave encroaches upon the area.
Convection is likely to develop over central KS, along/ahead of
the front and then quickly track eastward into what should be a
very favorable environment for severe thunderstorms with CAPE in
the 2000 to 2500 J/KG range and 0-6km shear of 50+ kts. Even with
winds veered to the south-southwest, helicity values are in the
200 to 250 m^2/s^2 range and may even be higher. Forecast
hodographs show strong curvature in the 0-3 km range with much of
this in the 0-1km depth. 0-3km shear of 30 to 40 kts from west to
east favors mesovortex generation within any QLCS. Given the
strong shear, moderate instability and high helicity, tornadoes
look very possible from east central KS through central and
perhaps to northeastern MO. This would be in initial supercell
stages and also after the storms form into a QLCS. Also, given the
strong winds throughout the atmosphere, damaging winds look
likely. Additionally, with supercells or supercells within a line,
large will be possible.

The front that will force all of this activity should quickly move
through the forecast area. Have sped up the exit of the precipitation
tonight to match short-range model trends. Also, winds will increase
quite a bit in the wake of the front. Have increased winds to the 20
to 30 mph range with higher gusts. For now, I don't anticipate wind
advisory level winds, but there could be a few wind gusts of 40 mph
given the strong downward momentum behind the front. Winds should
decrease by sunrise as the area of potential vorticity shifts
eastward. But it will still be windy with temperatures struggling to
reach 60 degrees across the area.

The rest of the forecast looks dry with temperatures climbing into
the low to middle 70s, which is about 5 degrees above normal for
this time of year.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

Pre-front thunderstorms pushed through the terminals in the past
couple of hours. The actual cold front will move through later
this evening and might bring a secondary round of thunderstorms,
though this second line will likely be more scattered in nature.
Expect gusty northwest winds behind the front later tonight, with
northwest winds persisting through Sunday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 14, 4:56 AM CDT, 18 hours 55 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
456 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-151000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
456 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A chance of thunderstorms will be possible this morning generally
north of the Interstate 70 corridor.

Additional thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening
along a cold front, and spread across the outlook area. Severe
weather will be possible, with damaging wind gusts the greatest
hazard, along with some potential for large hail and isolated
tornadoes.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 14, 8:37 PM CDT, 3 hours 14 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
837 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

MOZ044>046-054-150230-
Johnson MO-Pettis MO-Cooper MO-Henry MO-
837 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HENRY...PETTIS...
SOUTHWESTERN COOPER AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM
CDT...

At 837 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Whiteman Afb, or 7 miles north of Windsor, moving east at 55 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sedalia, Windsor, Whiteman Air Force Base, La Monte, Pilot Grove,
Smithton, Green Ridge, Calhoun, Otterville, Whiteman Afb, Sedalia
Memorial Arpt and Clifton City.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for central and
west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3871 9366 3893 9290 3869 9292 3869 9306
      3853 9307 3854 9328 3851 9330 3851 9351
      3847 9352 3847 9365
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 258DEG 46KT 3863 9357

Leighton

Local storm report, Oct 14, 8:54 PM CDT, 2 hours 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
854 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     TSTM WND GST     GREEN RIDGE             38.62N 93.41W
10/14/2017  E65 MPH          PETTIS             MO   PUBLIC

&&

JW

Local storm report, Oct 14, 9:08 PM CDT, 2 hours 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
908 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0621 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW HARRISONVILLE     38.64N 94.35W
10/14/2017                   CASS               MO   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT...TREES DOWN AND DEBRIS IN
            ROAD SOUTH OF HARRISONVILLE. REPORT VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED TO RADAR.

&&

JW

Local storm report, Oct 14, 9:21 PM CDT, 2 hours 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
921 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNE SEDALIA           38.71N 93.23W
10/14/2017  M58 MPH          PETTIS             MO   AWOS

&&

JW

Local storm report, Oct 14, 9:41 PM CDT, 2 hours 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
941 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0529 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S SIBLEY              39.16N 94.20W
10/14/2017                   JACKSON            MO   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT...MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON
            ROADWAYS. RELOCATED A FULL 110 GALLON WATER
            TANK A SIGNIFICANT DISTANCE FROM ORIGINAL
            LOCATION. REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

JW

Local storm report, Oct 14, 10:50 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1050 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNW RANDOLPH          39.17N 94.50W
10/14/2017                   CLAY               MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            THE SIGN OF A FAIRFIELD INN ACROSS FROM
            WORLDS OF FUN WAS BLOWN OVER. PHOTOS CAME TO
            OUR OFFICE VIA TWITTER.

&&

JWL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 14, 7:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates, Cass	39 min
Oct 14, 7:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Randolph	35 min
Oct 14, 7:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Howard	33 min
Oct 14, 7:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Bates, Henry	28 min
Oct 14, 8:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Henry	43 min
Oct 14, 8:37 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Pettis	53 min
Oct 14, 8:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cooper, Pettis, Saline	47 min
Oct 14, 9:01 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Johnson, Lafayette, Pettis, Saline	3 hr
Oct 14, 9:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cooper, Howard	41 min
Oct 15, 1:08 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Johnson, Pettis	34 hr
Oct 15, 1:29 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cass, Henry, Johnson	48 hr
Oct 15, 8:10 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Cooper, Saline	3 days
Oct 15, 12:28 PM CDT	Frost Advisory	EAX	Andrew, Atchison, Gentry, Holt, Nodaway, Worth	20 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2017 Every river flood warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.