Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 1713
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 14, 2017, 3:35 PM CDT for 16 counties in Illinois; 9 counties in Iowa; 37 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 14, 2017, 3:35 PM CDT (20:35 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 14, 2017, 6:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 62 counties
Appanoose County, IA, Davis County, IA, Decatur County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Henry County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Lee County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Wayne County, IA, Adams County, IL, Brown County, IL, Cass County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Knox County, IL, Logan County, IL, Mason County, IL, McDonough County, IL, Menard County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Pike County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Warren County, IL, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clark County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Knox County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Lewis County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Marion County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Monroe County, MO, Platte County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Ralls County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Scotland County, MO, Shelby County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO
The radar
The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 192 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 257 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 594 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 64 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 102 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 160 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.0
The text
As transmitted.
079
ACUS11 KWNS 142035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142035
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-142300-
Mesoscale Discussion 1713
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017
Areas affected...northern/central Missouri...far southern Iowa...and
west-central Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 142035Z - 142300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The discussion area is being monitored for increasing
severe potential over the next 2-3 hours, which may necessitate a WW
issuance.
DISCUSSION...A complex surface pattern currently exists across the
discussion area. Both a warm front and differential heating zone
are separating a moderately unstable airmass (nearly 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE) over central Missouri from rain-cooled air to the north.
Isolated convection was located along and just north of these
boundaries, although weak mid-level lapse rates and a lack of
forcing for ascent aloft has resulted in sub-severe convection so
far this afternoon.
Continued surface heating and convergence along the front may be
enough to encourage isolated surface-based development that will
pose a risk for wind/hail and perhaps a tornado over the next 2-3
hours, especially near the differential heating zone. While this
initial activity may be too isolated to necessitate a WW, increasing
convective activity upstream in eastern Kansas may further organize
and pose a severe risk initially in northwestern Missouri -
spreading eastward across the discussion area over time. A WW
issuance is possible for this activity, and convective trends will
continue to be monitored.
..Cook/Hart.. 10/14/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 39179469 39529485 39969492 40309475 40649434 40899337
41019232 41079107 41059008 40908949 40508907 40068921
39808985 39559096 39419160 38929279 38699373 38659437
38719446 39179469SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 5:09 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adams, Brown, Bureau, Ford, Fulton, Grundy and 24 more | 8 hr |
| Oct 14, 6:01 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Cass, Cook, DeWitt, DuPage, Ford and 21 more | 89 min |
| Oct 14, 4:21 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Adams, Cass, Clarke, Fremont, Madison and 8 more | 84 min |
| Oct 14, 2:40 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Platte | 3 hr |
| Oct 14, 4:45 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Vernon | 5 hr |
| Oct 14, 6:23 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Audrain, Bates, Benton, Boone, Callaway, Cole and 14 more | 97 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.