Alert archive / Missouri / Tornado Watches in 2017

Tornado Watch 248

May 19, 2017Calhoun County, Illinois; 47 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 19, 2017, 3:06 PM CDT for Calhoun County, Illinois; 47 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 19, 2017, 3:06 PM CDT (20:06 UTC)
Expired
May 19, 2017, 10:00 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 48 counties

Calhoun County, IL, Audrain County, MO, Barry County, MO, Benton County, MO, Boone County, MO, Callaway County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Cole County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Crawford County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howard County, MO, Howell County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, Lincoln County, MO, Maries County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Moniteau County, MO, Montgomery County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Osage County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pike County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Saline County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Warren County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
80%

Warnings issued inside it

24 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 19, 3:13 PM CDTTornado WarningSGFJasper, Lawrence, Newton47 min
May 19, 3:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBarry, Lawrence, McDonald, Newton67 min
May 19, 3:40 PM CDTTornado WarningSGFDade, Lawrence50 min
May 19, 4:01 PM CDTTornado WarningSGFCedar, Dade, Greene, Polk44 min
May 19, 4:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFChristian, Greene, Stone, Taney64 min
May 19, 4:36 PM CDTTornado WarningSGFDallas, Hickory, Polk39 min
May 19, 5:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFCamden, Laclede, Webster, Wright57 min
May 19, 5:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBenton, Camden, Miller, Morgan1 min
May 19, 5:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFBenton, Maries, Miller, Morgan36 min
May 19, 6:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXBoone, Callaway, Cole, Moniteau, Osage45 min
May 19, 6:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFMcDonald, Newton51 min
May 19, 6:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXBoone, Callaway, Cole, Gasconade, Montgomery, Osage52 min
May 19, 6:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFMaries, Phelps49 min
May 19, 6:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFMcDonald, Newton65 min
May 19, 7:01 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFHowell, Oregon59 min
May 19, 7:23 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLSXFranklin, Gasconade, Lincoln, Montgomery, Warren52 min
May 19, 7:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFTexas39 min
May 19, 8:18 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDouglas, Ozark, Taney57 min
May 19, 8:43 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSGFOzark, Taney6 hr
May 19, 8:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFMcDonald, Newton54 min
May 19, 9:07 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDouglas, Ozark, Taney53 min
May 19, 9:43 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningSGFDouglas6 hr
May 19, 9:44 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFDallas, Laclede, Webster, Wright61 min
May 19, 9:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSGFOzark, Taney51 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2017-05-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2017-05-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -97 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
968 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-97 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
118 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

846 
WWUS20 KWNS 192002
SEL8  
SPC WW 192002
ILZ000-MOZ000-200300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 248
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
305 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  parts of west central Illinois
  southwestern into cenral Missouri

* Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...An evolving area of thunderstorm activity appears likely
to organize further and intensify through the late afternoon hours
as it spreads across southwestern Missouri into the lower Missouri
Valley.  Large hail may accompany strongest storms, with an
increasing risk for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of
tornadoes.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Columbia MO to 35
miles southeast of Monett MO. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 246...WW 247...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Kerr

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 19, 4:07 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Calhoun, Clinton, Fayette, Greene, Jersey and 8 more113 min
May 19, 4:16 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBond, Calhoun, Clinton, Fayette, Greene, Jersey and 8 more3 hr
May 19, 6:30 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Clay, Clinton, Crawford, Cumberland, Effingham and 9 more90 min
May 19, 6:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun86 min
May 18, 7:06 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuchanan, Caldwell, Cass, Clay, Clinton, Jackson and 4 more84 min
May 18, 9:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Barton, Bates, Benton, Cass, Cedar and 18 more94 min
May 18, 9:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAndrew, Bates, Buchanan, Caldwell, Cass, Clay and 9 more4 hr
May 18, 10:58 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBarry, Christian, Douglas, Greene, Howell, Lawrence and 10 more6 hr
May 18, 11:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Christian, McDonald, Newton, Stone, Taney57 min
May 19, 2:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Christian, Dade, Douglas, Greene, Howell and 9 more92 min
May 19, 5:03 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Dunklin, Mississippi, New Madrid, Pemiscot, Stoddard117 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Missouri, 2017Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2017Every tornado watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.