Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
627 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

An upper level low remains over the Rockies region this afternoon.
The low will slowly spread east into the Plains this evening and
tonight. Ahead a line of storms has already developed across
northeast Oklahoma/southwestern Missouri.

A low level jet has helped the atmosphere recover this afternoon
as MLCAPE values have increased to over 1500J/kg. Expect the line
of storms to continue to lift northeast this afternoon into this
evening.  Additional storms have also developed across southern
Oklahoma and Texas this afternoon this activity will also
spread/expand to the northeast into the western portions of the
area by early/mid evening then spread east across the rest of the
area through the evening into the early overnight hours.

The low level jet will remain out of the south ahead of the low
which will keep an unstable air mass across the area through this
evening, may actually increase some as the air mass to the south
continues to advect north. Theta-E difference are also increasing
across the area as moisture advects north into the area. This will
support a damaging wind risk to 70 mph with both the line
currently pushing into the area and also with any additional line
of storms that spread across the area this evening. 0-3km bulk
shear vectors are and will generally remain out of the northeast
at 30kt which will support a meso vort and spin up tornado risk
with any line segments that can surge to the northeast through the
evening/early overnight hours.

The line of storms should start to spread east of the area by
the early overnight hours. The upper level low will still be to
our west allowing showers and storms to remain possible through
the overnight hours with more light showers occurring during the
day on Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

A cold front will push through the area by Saturday night. Surface
high pressure and a cooler air mass will then spread into the
area behind the front. The region will stay in northwest flow in
flow through much of next week. This will result in cooler
conditions as highs in the 60s into the lower 70s occur each
afternoon. An upper level disturbance will move through the region
mid week, which will help reinforce the cooler conditions. This
disturbance will also bring some chances for a few showers and
storms to the area Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: Another round of storms have
developed across Oklahoma and are expected to lift northeast and
push across the area this evening. IFR conditions will be likely
with any of the storms.

Showers and a few storms will likely linger into the overnight
hours with drizzle or light rain possible Saturday morning.
Ceilings are expected to lower into the MVFR range late tonight
into Saturday morning. Ceilings should then increase Saturday
afternoon. A cold front will move through the area Saturday
afternoon with winds switching to the west behind the front.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ055-066>068-
     077-078-088-089-093-094-101>103.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
720 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-210030-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
720 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited Tornado risk.
  Elevated Hail risk.
  Elevated Thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated Flooding risk.
  Significant Lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Isolated storms have developed across south central Missouri
  early this evening. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph winds and
  hail to the size of half dollars will be possible in the
  strongest storms with these storms this evening.

  A line of storms has developed across far southwestern Missouri
  into northeastern Oklahoma early this evening.  This line of
  storms will track northeast across the area this evening into
  the early overnight hours. These storms will have the potential
  for damaging wind gust to 70 mph and hail to the size of
  quarters. There will also be a brief tornado risk with any
  surges in the lines to the northeast with these storms too.

  There will also be a risk for flash flooding as multiple
  rounds of rain are expected into tonight, especially where
  training of storms can develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

  Storms should come to an end on Saturday, with storm total
  rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches. The heaviest rainfall
  amounts and higher flooding potential is expected to occur over
  southeast Kansas and west central Missouri.

  Additional thunderstorms will return Monday as another storm
  system moves in from the northwest.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed across the Missouri Ozarks
  this evening.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
601 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 SE KAISER             38.10N 92.55W
05/19/2017  M53 MPH          MILLER             MO   AWOS

            53MPH WIND GUST MEASURED AT AWOS STATION
            AIZ, LEE C FINE MEMORIAL AIRPORT.

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
611 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW GRAVOIS MILLS     38.26N 92.85W
05/19/2017                   MORGAN             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN.

&&

BURCHFIELD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
628 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

MOZ058-071-200015-
Maries MO-Phelps MO-
628 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MARIES AND NORTHERN PHELPS
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 628 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of St. Thomas to near Vienna
to near Newburg. Movement was northeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Rolla...                          St. James...
Belle...                          Doolittle...
Vienna...                         Newburg...
Northwye...                       Jerome...
Vichy...                          Rosati...

This includes Interstate 44 near mile marker 169, between mile
markers 171 and 179, and between mile markers 184 and 200.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for central and
east central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3827 9164 3816 9164 3815 9153 3802 9153
      3781 9202 3807 9203 3829 9215 3829 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 214DEG 42KT 3832 9209 3813 9199 3794 9198

Schaumann

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
715 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             LANTON                  36.51N 91.80W
05/19/2017  E0.25 INCH       HOWELL             MO   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT A LOCAL
            BUSINESS NEAR LANTON.

&&

MG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
717 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             LANTON                  36.51N 91.80W
05/19/2017  E1.00 INCH       HOWELL             MO   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED AT A LOCAL
            BUSINESS NEAR LANTON.

&&

BURCHFIELD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
748 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PINEVILLE               36.59N 94.38W
05/19/2017                   MCDONALD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY W IN PINEVILLE JUST NORTH OF 8TH
            STREET AND JUST NORTH OF PINEVILLE ROADWAYS
            ARE COVERED WITH WATER ABOUT 8 INCHES.

&&

BURCHFIELD