River Flood Warning 63, NWS Springfield, MO

587 
WGUS83 KSGF 210148
FLSSGF
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
848 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017



 ...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Kansas...Missouri...
 
  Spring River above Baxter Springs affecting Cherokee County
  Spring River at Carthage affecting Jasper County

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for later statements.

Additional river information can be found on our Advanced Hydrologic 
Prediction Service page at http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/ 
index.php?wfo=sgf 

&&

KSC021-210218-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FL.W.0062.000000T0000Z-170523T0040Z/
/BXTK1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
848 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

The Flood Warning has been cancelled for  The Spring River above 
Baxter Springs.* At  8:30 PM Saturday The stage was 12.4 feet. 
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet. 
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 12.5 feet. The 
  river will fall over the next few days.

&&


               FLOOD  OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM

LOCATION       STAGE STAGE  DAY TIME     Sat   Sun   Mon

Spring River Basin
  Baxter Springs   14  12.4 Sat 08 PM   9.4   5.6   5.1


&&


LAT...LON 3715 9462 3699 9461 3700 9475 3714 9471

 

$$

MOC097-210218-
/O.CAN.KSGF.FL.W.0063.000000T0000Z-170523T0920Z/
/CHTM7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
848 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

The Flood Warning has been cancelled for  The Spring River at 
Carthage.* At  7:45 PM Saturday The stage was 9.4 feet. 
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at 9.6 feet 
  around midnight.

&&


               FLOOD  OBSERVED           FORECAST 7 AM

LOCATION       STAGE STAGE  DAY TIME     Sat   Sun   Mon

Spring River Basin
  Carthage         10   9.4 Sat 08 PM   6.6   5.8   5.1


&&


LAT...LON 3720 9436 3720 9406 3714 9406 3714 9437

 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
556 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

...12z Aviation Update...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

MCS is shifting off to the east. Strongest convection in our area
is on the eastern flank of the convection. The main near term
concern is where bowing can develop in nw-se line segments. Even
then progged soundings and observation indicate convection is
starting to have more difficulty becoming surface based. In any
case, high res models (HRRR) push convective outflow off to the
east. Convective redevelopment over the eastern cwfa may not be
particularly robust if stabilized by clouds/showers. Will
monitor.

Rainfall: The near term concern is the eastern cwfa where
convection still has the potential to train from south to north.
We are in the process of switching flash flood warnings to areal
flood warnings over far sw MO.

Otherwise, an upper closed low over the Plains will move northeast
into the upper Midwest tonight with drier air and clearing
eventually moving in from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Some chances for showers/tstms are expected, but we are not
looking at high impact weather during this period.

Sunday: Looks quiet/dry with sfc high pressure moving into MO.

Monday-Tuesday: A high amplitude pattern continues to be expected
over the CONUS with a longwave trough over the Plains and
Midwest. An approaching shortwave will bring the next chance of
showers/tstms late Mon-Tue, but amounts are expected to be fairly
light with better moisture down toward the Gulf of Mexico.

Wednesday: The upper level longwave trough axis passes through
Wed. Clouds, maybe some light precip will linger into Wed, but
hazardous weather impact is expected to be nil/very low.

Thursday-Friday: Thu looks dry again with sfc high pressure. In
general there is decent agreement with global models of the
pattern trying to become more zonal late in the week. We have some
rain chances by Fri with an approaching relatively weak approaching
system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

Showers will continue to move eastward this morning. JLN has
already cleared of rainfall and the back edge was knocking at the
door at SGF. BBG will hang onto rain a little longer per radar,
but even that area should be rain free by mid morning. MVFR
conditions and perhaps brief drops into IFR CIGs may be possible
before cloud cover begins to decrease later tonight. Winds will be
generally be west at less than 10kts.

Skies will clear and winds will remain rather light overnight
tonight. Think that areas that calm and clear will likely
experience some fog/vis reduction. Guidance isn't very bullish
with this idea, so took a conservative approach keeping SGF and
JLN VFR and only MVFR for BBG. Later forecasts will reflect the
overall confidence in morning visibility issues on Sunday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Frye

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
719 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-211230-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
719 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

 Elevated Flooding risk.
 Limited Lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will gradually end from
west to east today. Residual flooding will continue in some areas
and river basins where heavy rain occurred or occurred upstream.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Additional thunderstorms will return Monday and Tuesday as
another storm system moves in from the northwest. Overall rainfall
from this system is not expected to be as heavy.

Another system is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
403 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 AM     TSTM WND DMG     THAYER                  36.52N 91.54W
05/20/2017                   OREGON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED A CIRCUS TENT
            BLOWN DOWN IN THAYER. ADDITIONALLY, TREES
            AND POWER LINES DOWN ON HWY 63 IN TOWN. TIME
            ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

FRYE