Alert archive / Louisiana / Tornado Watches in 2017

Tornado Watch 15

January 21, 201728 parishes in Louisiana; 20 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jan 21, 2017, 3:29 PM CST for 28 parishes in Louisiana; 20 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 21, 2017, 3:29 PM CST (21:29 UTC)
Expired
Jan 21, 2017, 9:00 PM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 48 counties

Acadia Parish, LA, Ascension Parish, LA, Avoyelles Parish, LA, Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Baton Rouge Parish, LA, East Feliciana Parish, LA, Evangeline Parish, LA, Iberville Parish, LA, Jefferson Parish, LA, Lafayette Parish, LA, Livingston Parish, LA, Orleans Parish, LA, Plaquemines Parish, LA, Pointe Coupee Parish, LA, Rapides Parish, LA, Saint Bernard Parish, LA, Saint Charles Parish, LA, Saint Helena Parish, LA, Saint James Parish, LA, Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA, Saint Landry Parish, LA, Saint Martin Parish, LA, Saint Tammany Parish, LA, Tangipahoa Parish, LA, Washington Parish, LA, West Baton Rouge Parish, LA, West Feliciana Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Amite County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, George County, MS, Greene County, MS, Hancock County, MS, Harrison County, MS, Jackson County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Marion County, MS, Pearl River County, MS, Perry County, MS, Pike County, MS, Stone County, MS, Walthall County, MS, Wilkinson County, MS

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
30%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
60%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
40%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
70%

Warnings issued inside it

23 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 21, 4:56 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXSaint Charles19 min
Jan 21, 5:02 PM CSTTornado WarningLIXOrleans13 min
Jan 21, 5:11 PM CSTTornado WarningLIXSaint Charles7 min
Jan 21, 5:16 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXSaint Tammany29 min
Jan 21, 5:47 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXPointe Coupee, West Feliciana28 min
Jan 21, 6:18 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBGeorge42 min
Jan 21, 6:21 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXJackson24 min
Jan 21, 6:50 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLCHRapides14 min
Jan 21, 6:57 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLIXEast Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Pointe Coupee, West Baton Rouge33 min
Jan 21, 7:08 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCatahoula, Concordia82 min
Jan 21, 7:11 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBGeorge, Greene34 min
Jan 21, 7:24 PM CSTTornado WarningJANCatahoula, Concordia66 min
Jan 21, 7:40 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBGeorge28 min
Jan 21, 7:49 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANForrest26 min
Jan 21, 7:56 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBPerry49 min
Jan 21, 8:09 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANJefferson36 min
Jan 21, 8:18 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANConcordia, Tensas57 min
Jan 21, 8:28 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBGreene, Perry, Wayne47 min
Jan 21, 8:31 PM CSTTornado WarningJANConcordia41 min
Jan 21, 8:36 PM CSTTornado WarningJANCopiah, Franklin, Jefferson, Lincoln54 min
Jan 21, 8:43 PM CSTTornado WarningJANCatahoula, Concordia17 min
Jan 21, 8:50 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANForrest, Lamar55 min
Jan 21, 8:52 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMOBPerry, Wayne38 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Slidell Radar S, LA (KSIL), launched 12:00Z, 9.5 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2017-01-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1327 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Slidell Radar S, LA at 12:00Z on 2017-01-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 275 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1327 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
508 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
275 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
323 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
2.4
Supercell composite
11.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

171 
WWUS20 KWNS 212126
SEL5  
SPC WW 212126
LAZ000-MSZ000-CWZ000-220300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 15
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
330 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Louisiana
  Southern Mississippi
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 330 PM until
  900 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2.5 inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop over southeast LA
this afternoon and spread northeastward across the watch area. 
Large hail and damaging winds are possible in this area, but the
risk of a few tornadoes should increase by early evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
north and south of a line from 10 miles south of Alexandria LA to 35
miles east southeast of Gulfport MS. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 13...WW 14...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 24030.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 20, 6:37 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Evangeline and 3 more113 min
Jan 20, 7:32 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAcadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron and 9 more6 hr
Jan 20, 10:04 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Calcasieu, Cameron, Evangeline and 7 more116 min
Jan 20, 10:44 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Jefferson, Lafourche and 12 more61 min
Jan 20, 11:00 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAscension, Assumption, Concordia, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville and 17 more8 hr
Jan 21, 1:41 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Avoyelles, Cameron, Evangeline, Iberia, Jefferson Davis and 5 more64 min
Jan 21, 2:55 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Jefferson and 16 more2 hr
Jan 21, 6:35 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJefferson, Lafourche, Orleans, Plaquemines, Saint Bernard, Saint Charles and 1 more55 min
Jan 21, 2:33 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBienville, Bossier, Caddo, Claiborne, De Soto, Jackson and 8 more2 hr
Jan 21, 2:34 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Ascension, Avoyelles, Catahoula, Concordia, East Baton Rouge and 16 more2 hr
Jan 21, 3:41 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCBienville, Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Claiborne, De Soto and 11 more7 hr
Jan 21, 5:32 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAvoyelles, Bienville, Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Catahoula and 23 more118 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2017Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2017Every tornado watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.