Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
709 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions were still being observed at 01Z but regional radars
were showing an increase in convection south and west of the area.
Flight conditions will deteriorate during the next several hours as
numerous TSRAs move across the area. Severe storms are expected with
hail greater than golfball size...winds in excess of 50kts and
tornadoes possible. TSRA/SHRA activity wl continue Sunday although no
severe storms are expected. Cigs wl likely remain MVFR/IFR Sunday as
an upper level low moves across north MS. /22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...Tonight through Sunday...Mid afternoon surface
analysis had a stalled boundary just south of Highway 84 and a 994mb
low near the Texas panhandle. Mid afternoon water vapor imagery/RAP
analysis had a closed low spinning over the Texas/Oklahoma
panhandles. Our CWA was located upstream from the low in an
increasingly diffluent flow region with increasing waa ahead of the
approaching low pressure system. This will result in the stalled
boundary lifting north this evening across our CWA and becoming the
focus for severe storms. The favored quad of >100knot upper level
jet will move into our area this evening. The approaching cold core
low will steepen mid level lapse rates to 7-8C/km leading to
vertical totals in the lower 30s. This combined with 20-30 knots of
0-1 km bulk shear and 60-70 knots 0-6 km bulk shear will promote
very robust rotating updraft with all modes of severe weather
possible. The best parameters for large hail is expected over the
western half of our CWA while the greatest potential for tornadic
development is expected across the southern half of our CWA. In
addition, there will exist the threat for damaging winds and locally
heavy downpours areawide. Due to antecedent conditions our southern
zones may have the greatest chance of experiencing minor runoff
issues. The severe convection looks to lift northeast of our CWA by
3am however, the cold core low will track across north MS through
Sunday and prolong rain chances into the evening. /22/

Sunday night through Tuesday: Showers will linger, especially over
the northeast portion of the area, into Sunday evening as the mid
level low lingers across North AL pushing into the southern
Appalachians. A cooler but seasonable airmass will move into the
area as surface flow veers around to northwesterly behind the
departing surface cyclone. Cooler conditions will continue into
Monday, but as a ridge axis shifts across the area Monday night,
return flow will bring a quick warm up on Tuesday ahead of a weaker
storm system approaching the region. High temps are expected to
return to the 70s across the southwest part of the area.

Tuesday night through next Saturday: A relatively weak cold front
will pass across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Negligible
upper forcing will accompany this system and upper flow trajectories
will be close to parallel to the surface front. In addition, it
appears the warmth/moisture surge ahead of this front will be
insufficient to produce the instability needed for storms. Still,
scattered showers will be possible especially over the southeastern
half of the area. A surface high will build over the region
beginning Thursday, bringing dry conditions through the remainder of
the week with temps returning closer to seasonal norms. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       57  66  45  58 /  74  48  30   3
Meridian      58  66  45  57 /  73  64  34   6
Vicksburg     57  64  44  59 /  81  28  18   2
Hattiesburg   60  68  47  61 /  70  41  13   2
Natchez       57  65  44  62 /  73  20  11   1
Greenville    55  62  42  55 /  86  56  30   2
Greenwood     56  64  43  55 /  85  67  47   5

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

DL/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
732 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>066-072>074-230145-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-ISSAQUENA-
SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-
SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-
CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
732 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING...TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL
SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A FEW
TORNADOES ARE LIKELY AND A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN
ADDITION...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE2.PNG)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

MSZ018-019-025>039-230145-
BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-
LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-
732 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

FLOODING
THREAT...LIMITED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL
SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED. A FEW
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AND A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
IN ADDITION...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

(WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/JAN/GRAPHICAST/IMAGE2.PNG)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
SIGNIFICANT...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
SIGNIFICANT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
SIGNIFICANT...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/SAFE
LATEST WEATHER BRIEFING...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/WEATHER_BRIEFING

FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/SAFE

LATEST WEATHER BRIEFING...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/WEATHER_BRIEFING

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/ONLINE/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/SAFE_HEAVYRAIN

OBSERVED PRECIPITATION IMAGES...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/PRECIPMAPS

LATEST WEATHER BRIEFING...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN/WEATHER_BRIEFING

RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LMRFC/
SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK...
   WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/NATIONALFLOODOUTLOOK/INDEX.HTML
DAY 1 THROUGH 3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
   WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESS_RAIN.SHTML
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION...
   WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFERD.HTML
DAY 1 THROUGH 7 QPF...
   WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML
QPF DISCUSSION...
   WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFPFD.HTML
   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
743 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             ARCHIE                  31.58N 91.97W
01/21/2017  E1.25 INCH       CATAHOULA          LA   PUBLIC

&&

EC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
743 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

MSZ074-220215-
Forrest MS-
743 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN FORREST COUNTY
UNTIL 815 PM CST...

At 742 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Lumberton, or 8 miles northeast of Poplarville, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Maxie around 755 PM CST.
  Brooklyn around 800 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 900 PM CST for southeastern
Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3100 8934 3100 8935 3104 8935 3116 8915
      3100 8915 3100 8914 3091 8914 3091 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 0142Z 240DEG 49KT 3090 8940

BYB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
747 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

MSZ048-049-220230-
Hinds MS-Rankin MS-
747 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL RANKIN AND SOUTHEASTERN
HINDS COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CST...

At 747 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Crystal Springs, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Terry around 755 PM CST.
  Whites around 800 PM CST.
  Byram around 805 PM CST.
  Florence around 810 PM CST.
  Richland and Monterey around 815 PM CST.
  Pearl around 820 PM CST.
  Brandon and Flowood around 825 PM CST.
  Fannin around 830 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 300 AM CST for central
Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3240 9013 3240 9007 3244 9007 3244 9005
      3249 9000 3235 8978 3205 9010 3205 9039
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 217DEG 36KT 3200 9030

byb

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
801 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     HAIL             7 WSW BROOKLYN          31.02N 89.30W
01/21/2017  E1.00 INCH       FORREST            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON PISTOL RIDGE ROAD...REPORTED BY
            HATTIESBURG EOC

&&

EC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
802 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

MSZ047-220230-
Warren MS-
802 PM CST SAT JAN 21 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WARREN COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM
CST...

At 801 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Le Tourneau, or near Vicksburg, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Vicksburg around 805 PM CST.
  Bovina around 820 PM CST.
  Redwood and Flowers around 825 PM CST.
  Oak Ridge and Youngton around 830 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 300 AM CST for northeastern
Louisiana...and west central and central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3223 9105 3220 9099 3229 9098 3229 9093
      3238 9088 3234 9091 3235 9097 3245 9090
      3245 9086 3258 9081 3257 9073 3260 9072
      3251 9057 3248 9061 3244 9059 3236 9063
      3234 9071 3230 9070 3213 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 217DEG 35KT 3225 9092

byb