Alert archive / Arkansas / Tornado Watches in 2017

Tornado Watch 16

January 21, 20174 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jan 21, 2017, 3:41 PM CST for 4 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 21, 2017, 3:41 PM CST (21:41 UTC)
Expired
Jan 21, 2017, 10:16 PM CST
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
3 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 59 counties

Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Miller County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Union County, AR, Yell County, AR, Bienville Parish, LA, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Caldwell Parish, LA, Claiborne Parish, LA, De Soto Parish, LA, Grant Parish, LA, Jackson Parish, LA, LaSalle Parish, LA, Lincoln Parish, LA, Natchitoches Parish, LA, Ouachita Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Sabine Parish, LA, Union Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, Winn Parish, LA, McCurtain County, OK, Angelina County, TX, Bowie County, TX, Cass County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Panola County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Sabine County, TX, San Augustine County, TX, Shelby County, TX

The radar

The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 128 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
90%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
60%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

38 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 21, 4:10 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVCass, Harrison, Marion50 min
Jan 21, 4:44 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVMiller61 min
Jan 21, 4:49 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVLafayette56 min
Jan 21, 4:56 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVLafayette49 min
Jan 21, 5:03 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVCaddo57 min
Jan 21, 5:30 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVColumbia, Lafayette60 min
Jan 21, 5:31 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKClark, Garland, Hot Spring, Montgomery30 min
Jan 21, 5:33 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVBossier, Claiborne, Webster42 min
Jan 21, 5:34 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVLittle River56 min
Jan 21, 5:37 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVGrant, Natchitoches, Winn38 min
Jan 21, 5:41 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVLafayette, Miller49 min
Jan 21, 5:46 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVLafayette, Miller44 min
Jan 21, 6:04 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVColumbia, Union41 min
Jan 21, 6:04 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVLafayette, Miller56 min
Jan 21, 6:13 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVGrant, Winn47 min
Jan 21, 6:14 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVGrant, Natchitoches61 min
Jan 21, 6:16 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVColumbia, Union59 min
Jan 21, 6:22 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVLittle River, Sevier53 min
Jan 21, 6:25 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVHoward, Sevier65 min
Jan 21, 6:32 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVUnion43 min
Jan 21, 6:44 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVColumbia, Union46 min
Jan 21, 6:48 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVLafayette57 min
Jan 21, 6:52 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVLaSalle23 min
Jan 21, 7:00 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVGrant, LaSalle, Winn22 min
Jan 21, 7:08 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVGrant52 min
Jan 21, 7:13 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVUnion47 min
Jan 21, 7:16 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKPolk44 min
Jan 21, 7:21 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVColumbia, Union54 min
Jan 21, 7:25 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Drew, Ouachita50 min
Jan 21, 7:33 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVUnion42 min
Jan 21, 7:34 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVUnion56 min
Jan 21, 7:37 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSHVColumbia68 min
Jan 21, 7:39 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVUnion51 min
Jan 21, 7:56 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVGrant, LaSalle64 min
Jan 21, 8:03 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVClaiborne, Webster57 min
Jan 21, 8:05 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLZKBradley, Calhoun, Cleveland, Dallas, Drew, Grant and 1 more40 min
Jan 21, 8:21 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVUnion39 min
Jan 21, 8:47 PM CSTTornado WarningSHVLincoln, Union43 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KBAD), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 124 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2017-01-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 20 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2017-01-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 12 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
20 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-323 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1223 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
12 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
81 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

308 
WWUS20 KWNS 212139
SEL6  
SPC WW 212139
ARZ000-LAZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-220300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 16
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
340 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Southern Arkansas
  Northern Louisiana
  Extreme Southeast Oklahoma
  Northeast Texas

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 340 PM until
  900 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes possible
  Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will form soon over northeast TX and spread
across the watch area this afternoon and evening.  Supercells
capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes are expected.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles
east and west of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Hot Springs
AR to 35 miles south southwest of Natchitoches LA. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 13...WW 14...WW 15...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
storm motion vector 25035.

...Hart

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 21, 2:33 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Clark, Columbia, Dallas, Hempstead, Howard and 9 more2 hr
Jan 21, 5:32 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Clark and 26 more118 min
Jan 20, 6:37 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron, Evangeline and 3 more113 min
Jan 20, 7:32 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAcadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Calcasieu, Cameron and 9 more6 hr
Jan 20, 10:04 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Avoyelles, Calcasieu, Cameron, Evangeline and 7 more116 min
Jan 20, 10:44 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Jefferson, Lafourche and 12 more61 min
Jan 20, 11:00 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAscension, Assumption, Concordia, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville and 17 more8 hr
Jan 21, 1:41 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Avoyelles, Cameron, Evangeline, Iberia, Jefferson Davis and 5 more64 min
Jan 21, 2:55 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAscension, Assumption, East Baton Rouge, East Feliciana, Iberville, Jefferson and 16 more2 hr
Jan 21, 6:35 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJefferson, Lafourche, Orleans, Plaquemines, Saint Bernard, Saint Charles and 1 more55 min
Jan 21, 2:34 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Ascension, Avoyelles, Catahoula, Concordia, East Baton Rouge and 16 more2 hr
Jan 21, 3:29 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAcadia, Ascension, Avoyelles, Catahoula, Concordia, East Baton Rouge and 22 more6 hr
Jan 20, 10:07 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Hardin, Harris, Jasper and 10 more113 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Arkansas, 2017Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2017Tornado Watches in Texas, 2017Every tornado watch in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.