Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017
Mesoscale Discussion 784
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 19, 2017, 3:28 PM CDT for 10 counties in Kansas; Grant County, Kay County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 92 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 19, 2017, 3:28 PM CDT (20:28 UTC)
- Expired
- May 19, 2017, 5:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 92 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Elk County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Grant County, OK, Kay County, OK
The radar
The Wichita radar (KICT), 31 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 221 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 36 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -135 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 538 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 50 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 229 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 256 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
199
ACUS11 KWNS 192029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192028
KSZ000-OKZ000-192200-
Mesoscale Discussion 0784
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017
Areas affected...South-central KS...Northern OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 192028Z - 192200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Severe threat is increasing across south-central KS and
extreme northern OK. Hail is the primary threat, though an isolated
tornado can not be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of modest boundary-layer heating has
developed from western OK into extreme south-central KS, per
surface-3km lapse rates on the order of 7 C/km. With minimal CINH
observed across this portion of KS/OK convection is expected to
gradually increase with continued heating, albeit modest due to
extensive cloud cover. Over the last hour or so thunderstorms have
gradually increased across southwest KS along the cold front. This
activity is expected to shift east into an air mass characterized by
dew points in the mid 60s with mid 70s temperatures. While
low-level shear is currently weak, deep-layer shear is more than
adequate for sustained rotating updrafts and a few supercells could
evolve across this region. Backed low-level flow may contribute to
the tornado potential, though hail is the primary risk.
..Darrow/Kerr.. 05/19/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36969828 37939804 38479671 38009586 37189582 36609751
36969828SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 7:06 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Chase, Clay, Coffey, Dickinson and 23 more | 84 min |
| May 18, 9:41 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Johnson, Linn, Miami | 94 min |
| May 18, 9:41 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Atchison, Doniphan, Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn, Miami and 1 more | 4 hr |
| May 19, 4:47 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Greenwood and 9 more | 4 hr |
| May 19, 6:45 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Greenwood and 10 more | 60 min |
| May 18, 7:19 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Garfield, Grant, Major, Woods | 26 min |
| May 18, 7:43 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter, Jefferson, Johnston, Love, Murray, Pontotoc | 62 min |
| May 18, 7:47 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alfalfa, Atoka, Bryan, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland and 26 more | 6 hr |
| May 19, 10:41 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Carter, Jefferson, Love, Marshall | 94 min |
| May 19, 2:13 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Ottawa, Sequoyah | 92 min |
| May 19, 3:26 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adair, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 19 more | 11 hr |
| May 19, 6:56 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 24 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.