Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2017

Mesoscale Discussion 770

May 18, 20176 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 18, 2017, 7:43 PM CDT for 6 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 62 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 18, 2017, 7:43 PM CDT (00:43 UTC)
Expired
May 18, 2017, 8:45 PM CDT
In force
62 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Carter County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Love County, OK, Murray County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK

The radar

The Norman radar (KTLX), 119 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 160 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2017-05-19Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1519 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Fort Worth, TX at 00:00Z on 2017-05-19The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 154 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1519 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-36 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1729 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
154 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
211 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.5
Supercell composite
16.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

380 
ACUS11 KWNS 190044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190043 
OKZ000-TXZ000-190145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0770
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Areas affected...south-central OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 235...240...

Valid 190043Z - 190145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 235, 240 continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered severe gusts 60-80 mph are possible with a
bowing MCS across south-central OK.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a developing MCS across the Red
River Valley in between the I-44 and I-35 corridors.  The transition
to a linear mode will likely result in mainly a wind risk as it
progresses eastward across south-central OK this evening.  Surface
observations ahead of the storm complex show temperatures in the
lower 80s degrees F and dewpoints around 70 F.  The 00Z FWD raob
showed steep 0-2 km lapse rates and 4100 J/kg SBCAPE with a veering
and strengthening wind profile with height.  A strong moist influx
and 40-kt south-southeasterly 925-850 mb flow at KFWS, steep 700-500
lapse rates (7.5 degrees C/km), and strong 0-6 km shear (50-kt) all
strongly favor a severe-wind producing MCS across southern OK. 
Expecting scattered 60-80 mph winds with the stronger downdrafts.

..Smith.. 05/19/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33949711 33999822 34609772 34969636 34189635 33949711

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 18, 7:19 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlfalfa, Garfield, Grant, Major, Woods26 min
May 18, 7:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlfalfa, Atoka, Bryan, Canadian, Carter, Cleveland and 26 more6 hr
May 18, 9:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Cherokee, Craig, Delaware, Haskell, Latimer and 4 more94 min
May 19, 10:41 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCarter, Jefferson, Love, Marshall94 min
May 19, 2:13 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Ottawa, Sequoyah92 min
May 19, 3:26 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdair, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 19 more11 hr
May 19, 3:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGrant, Kay92 min
May 19, 4:47 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAlfalfa, Grant, Kay4 hr
May 19, 6:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdair, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 24 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.