Mesoscale Discussion 264

Issued

Mar 6, 2017, 8:10 PM CST (02:10 UTC)

Expired

Mar 6, 2017, 10:45 PM CST

In force

3 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

80%

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 132 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Tornado Watch 66Mar 6, 8:50 PM CST
• Tornado Watch 67Mar 6, 9:20 PM CST

002 
ACUS11 KWNS 070211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070210 
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-070445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0264
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017

Areas affected...Much of western into northern Arkansas into
southeastern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

Valid 070210Z - 070445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A tornado watch will likely be needed across parts of
Arkansas into southeast Missouri later this evening.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a relative moist plume across
the Arklatex and central Arkansas with dewpoints rising into the
middle 60s. Meanwhile, shear is already strong well ahead of the
cold front, with low-level jet core continuing to strengthen. 0-1 km
SRH currently stands in the 500-600 m2/s2 range over much of
southern Missouri into western Arkansas, which is excessive.

Sporadic showers continue to form across western Arkansas, supported
by terrain upslope as well as the moistening air mass. With time, as
slight cooling aloft occurs and the low pressure trough nears,
showers/storms are expected to become stronger, with isolated
supercells possible ahead of the primary frontal squall line. Shear
will strongly favor rotating storms, and tornado potential
especially with discrete storms. However, damaging wind and even
brief tornadoes will also remain possible with the squall line as
well.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 03/07/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35419126 34969218 34589343 34569422 34869455 35849469
            36319380 37219168 37629044 37658959 37138921 36318971
            35889039 35419126

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2017Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2017Every mesoscale discussion in 2017

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.